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372. North Korea-Russian Relations: A Strained Friendship
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- North Korea's relations with Russia have been marked by unrealistic expectations and frequent disappointments but common interests have prevented a rupture. The neighbours' history as dissatisfied allies goes back to the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) with Soviet support and the Red Army's installation of Kim Il-sung as leader. However, the Soviets were soon written out of the North's official ideology. The Sino-Soviet split established a pattern of Kim playing Russian and Chinese leaders off against each other to extract concessions, including the nuclear equipment and technology at the heart of the current crisis. Since Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in 2000, diplomatic initiatives have come undone and grandiose economic projects have faltered. Russia is arguably the least effective participant in the six-party nuclear talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Pyongyang
373. Pakistan: The Forgotten Conflict in Balochistan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Violence continues unabated in Pakistan's strategically important and resource-rich province of Balochistan, where the military government is fighting Baloch militants demanding political and economic autonomy. President Pervez Musharraf's government insists the insurgency is an attempt to seize power by a handful of tribal chiefs bent on resisting economic development. Baloch nationalists maintain it is fuelled by the military's attempts to subdue dissent by force and the alienation caused by the absence of real democracy. Whether or not free and fair national and provincial elections are held later this year or in early 2008 will determine whether the conflict worsens.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Civil War
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Asia, and Balochistan
374. Indonesia: How GAM Won in Aceh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- When local elections were held in Aceh on 11 December 2006, conventional wisdom (shared by Crisis Group) was that candidates from the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) would not do well. They might pick up two or three of the nineteen district races, but the biggest prize – the provincial governorship – was almost certainly out of reach. The old Jakarta-linked parties would benefit from deep pockets, established structures and a split in the former insurgency's leadership. Polls just before formal campaigning began showed GAM's governor/deputy governor slate – Irwandi Yusuf and Muhammad Nazar – virtually out of contention. But GAM won overwhelmingly, in what an analyst called “a perfect storm between the fallout from the peace accord and the failure of political parties to understand the changing times”. The challenge now is to govern effectively and cleanly in the face of high expectations, possible old elite obstructionism and some GAM members' sense of entitlement that it is their turn for power and wealth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil Society, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
375. Southern Thailand: The Impact of the Coup
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The September 2006 coup in Thailand, despite its damage to democratic development, opened the way for improved management of the conflict in the Muslim South. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont's interim government has overhauled some of its predecessor's worst policies and signalled willingness to address longstanding grievances. But verbal commitments in Bangkok have been difficult to translate into changes on the ground, and relations between security forces and local communities continue to be strained while violence mounts. Thais outside the South have exerted pressure for a return to heavy-handed crackdowns on suspected militants. The government must respond to the escalating attacks, but with care – widespread arbitrary arrests and civilian casualties would only increase support for insurgents.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Thailand, and Bangkok
376. Uranium for India: avoiding the pitfalls
- Author:
- Ron Walker
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The prospect of Australia's selling uranium to India offers major potential benefits both for our exports and our foreign policy. There is however a conundrum as to how this could be done in a way that advances rather than damages Australia's interest in the global enterprise to resist the spread of nuclear weapons and in a rules-based international order.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
377. Reinventing 'West Asia': How the 'Middle east' and 'South Asia' Fit into Australia's Strategic Picture
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia's economic, political and strategic interests in the Middle East and South Asia are growing and policymakers are gradually reassessing the place of these regions in Australia's overall strategic calculus. There is a risk, however, that in this reassessment, the two regions will continue to be viewed distinctly - a distinction that is increasingly artificial in strategic terms.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
378. Offshoring, Outsourcing, and Production Relocation-Labor—Market Effects in the OECD Countries and Developing Asia
- Author:
- Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- This working paper evaluates the validity of available data on and the extent of the impact of offshoring on service-sector labor markets in the United States, EU-15, and Japan. A three-tier data validity hierarchy is identified. The impact of offshoring on employment in the three regions is found to be limited. Correspondingly, developing Asia is unlikely to experience large employment gains as a destination region. The paper highlights the case of the Indian IT industry, where the majority of job creation has been in local Indian companies rather than foreign multinationals. Domestic entrepreneurs have played a crucial role in the growth of the Indian IT-related service industry. However, increased tradability of services and associated skill bias in favor of higher skilled workers could have an uneven employment impact on developing Asia. Some high-skilled groups are benefiting and will continue to benefit dramatically from new employment opportunities and rising wage levels. Meanwhile, the same skill bias may eliminate many employment opportunities for unskilled or low-skilled groups in the region. Developing Asian countries therefore face a double educational challenge in the coming years: the need to simultaneously improve both primary and higher education.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia
379. China's March on the 21st Century
- Author:
- Kurt M. Campbell and Willow Darsie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- After a protracted period of uncertainty concerning the nature of the foreign policy challenges that are likely to confront the nation over the course of first half of the 21st century, twin challenges are now coming into sharper relief. For the next generation or more, Americans will be confronted by two overriding (and possibly overwhelming) challenges in the conduct of American foreign policy: how to more effectively wage a long, twilight struggle against violent Islamic fundamentalists, and at the same time cope with the almost certain rise to great power status of China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia
380. U.S.-China Relations
- Author:
- Dennis C. Blair, Carla A. Hills, and Frank Sampson Jannuzi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- President Richard M. Nixon reached out to the People's Republic of China thirty-five years ago to advance U.S. strategic interests by balancing the Soviet Union and reinforcing the split between two former communist allies. Nixon and his national security adviser, Henry Kissinger, briefed the Chinese on Soviet forces arrayed against China and also discussed the Vietnam War and Taiwan. Nixon and Kissinger sought to change the global U.S. stance from confrontation to détente and to extricate the United States from the Vietnam War. Their mission shifted the globe's geopolitical landscape.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Vietnam