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12. Policy Roundtable on Asian Non-Traditional Security
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTS)
- Abstract:
- On 30–31 July 2012, a Policy Roundtable on Asian Non-Traditional Security was held at the Hotel Novotel Beijing Peace, China, with the aim of sharing the research findings of participating institutions. The Roundtable was organised by the Center for Regional Security Studies (CRSS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS); the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS); the National Institute of International Strategy (NIIS), CASS; and the Center for Non-Traditional Security and Peaceful Development Studies (NTS-PD), Zhejiang University.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Environment, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Political Economy, Natural Disasters, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
13. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership
- Author:
- Tural Ahmadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center
- Abstract:
- Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
14. Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The financial systems in emerging market economies during the 2008–09 global financial crisis performed much better than in previous crisis episodes, albeit with significant differences across regions. For example, real credit growth in Asia and Latin America was less affected than in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper identifies the factors at both the country and the bank levels that contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in Latin America during the global financial crisis. The resilience of real credit during the crisis was highly related to policies, measures and reforms implemented in the pre-crisis period. In particular, we find that the best explanatory variables were those that gauged the economy's capacity to withstand an external financial shock. Key were balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short-term debt). The quality of pre-crisis credit growth mattered as much as its rate of expansion. Credit expansions that preserved healthy balance sheet measures (the “quality” dimension) proved to be more sustainable. Variables signalling the capacity to set countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies during the crisis were also important determinants. Moreover, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity and bank efficiency, also played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks which had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit most. The methodology used in this paper includes the construction of indicators of resilience of real credit growth to adverse external shocks in a large number of emerging markets, not just in Latin America. As additional data become available, these indicators could be part of a set of analytical tools to assess how emerging market economies are preparing themselves to cope with the adverse effects of global financial turbulence on real credit growth.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and Latin America
15. Reshaping the Security Order in Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Alain Guidetti
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The international strategic landscape is evolving at an unprecedented pace. The widespread assumption is that the global balance of power is shifting from the West to the East (and the South), as a consequence of the convergence of two variables: the sustained economic growth of China and Asia over recent decades, and the Western economic downturn since the 2008 global financial crisis. Though interpretations differ on the meaning and magnitude of this power shift, the prevailing assumption is that it reflects the weakness, and for some the relative decline, of the US and the West against Asia's and primarily China's strong rise. The implications of these developments across the Asia-Pacific are deep and have already led to growing strategic competition between Beijing and Washington for preeminence over the Asia-Pacific and new uncertainties over global and regional governance.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Beijing, Asia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
16. Global fiscal consolidation
- Author:
- Warwick McKibbin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The build up in government debt in response to the 'great recession' has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. Where the government fiscal stimulus was seen as necessary to restore confidence to markets and stimulate deteriorating economies in the aftermath of the 'great recession' by 2010 the massive fiscal stimulus programs and associated run-up in debt had, for many economies, become a confidence sapping exercise. This need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled another debate that has two related aspects. One is the impact of fiscal consolidation on economies that are tightening and the flow-on effects to the world economy. The other debate is how much tightening there should be and how quickly.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Australia/Pacific
17. G7 to G8 to G20: Evolution in Global Governance
- Author:
- Gordon S. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 05-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a brief history of the evolution of the Group of Seven (G7) from its origins in the aftermath of the 1971 breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of exchange rates and the oil crisis in 1973. It then discusses Russia's participation at summits after the fall of the Berlin Wall, formally joining the group in 1997, thus becoming the Group of Eight (G8). The paper gives a concise account of the formation of the Group of Twenty (G20) finance ministers and central bank governors in the late 1990s, in the wake of financial crises in Asia and Latin America, which was elevated to a leaders' summit forum at the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. The paper wraps up with a discussion of the differences in the G8 and G20 models, concluding that the G20 process is still the best option for meeting the challenges of complex global governance issues.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Asia, and Latin America
18. The ABCs of the General Capital Increase (ABCs of IFIs Brief)
- Author:
- Todd Moss, Sarah Jane Staats, and Julia Barmeier
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- The international financial institutions dramatically increased their lending in 2008–09 to help developing countries cope with the global financial crisis and support economic recovery. Today, these organizations are seeking billions of dollars in new funding. The IMF, which only a few years ago was losing clients and shedding staff, expanded by $750 billion in 2009. The World Bank and the four regional development banks for Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America have asked to increase their capital base by 30 to 200 percent. A general capital increase (GCI) for these development banks is an unusual request. A simultaneous GCI request is a oncein- a-generation occurrence.
- Topic:
- Development, Foreign Aid, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Ethiopia
19. Between Revolution and Stagnation: Perspectives for Belarus
- Author:
- Anna Maria Dyner
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Belarus faces a serious economic and financial crisis, which may have a significant impact on the political transformation of that country. Because of increases in living costs, which are part of the aftermath of the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble and rapidly rising inflation, an explosion of mass public protests is forecast for the autumn. However, it is not expected that the protests will bring about a rapid (pro-European) turn in the political situation in Belarus. Moreover, the weakness of the opposition, which after the presidential election of 2010 became even more divided than before and still has no charismatic leader, is not propitious to radical, pro-European changes.
- Topic:
- Economics, Social Stratification, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Asia
20. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Asia