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51. India: the Next Economic Giant

Author:
Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Indian economy is showing clear signs of realising its dormant potential. The impact of more than a decade of economic reforms, instigated by a 1991 balance of payments crisis, has now removed or at least mitigated some of the major economic distortions that have handicapped past economic performance. One important result has been a significant boost to the economy's overall potential growth rate. Another has been India's re-engagement with the global economy, which in turn has transformed the prospects of key sectors of the Indian economy. This transformation has been most visible in the case of information technology-related services exports, where India has already become an important global player. But there are also positive signs in the areas of merchandise trade and international capital flows. These trends will have important consequences for the international economy as a whole and for Australia in particular.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
India, East Asia, Asia, and Australia

52. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

53. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

54. 'Oil for the Lamps of China'—Beijing's 21st Century Search for Energy

Author:
Bernard D. Cole
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In 1933, Alice Tisdale Hobart, wife of the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey manager in Nanking, published Oil for the Lamps of China. Hobart had traveled widely in China and proved to be a very observant imperialist. Her fictional account of her experiences, not surprisingly, focused on the role played by Western businessmen, especially those engaged in importing and selling petroleum products. One thread that runs through her work is Chinese dependence on foreign sources of energy supplies, which remains the case today. This dependence on foreign- controlled sources means that Beijing's efforts to ensure the availability of energy resources adequate to fuel the nation's economic growth have important national security implications.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, and Asia

55. China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?

Author:
John W. Schindler, John G. Fernald, Prakash Loungani, and Alan J. Ahearne
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades (overall) and competitors (in specific products).
Topic:
Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

56. The YUKOS Affair

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
In the early morning of October 25, 2003, masked agents of the Russian security agency, the FSB, stormed the plane of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, CEO and principal owner of Russia's largest private oil company, YUKOS; arrested him; and conveyed him to a Moscow prison. He was charged with tax evasion, fraud, forgery, and embezzlement.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

57. South Korea, a new model for the new economy?

Author:
Christian Milelli
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
The "new economy" in South Korea rhymes with the Internet. In 2003, the "land of morning calm" has actually become the most connected country in the world. The present study tackles this phenomenon from a number of angles. The Internet is not only considered as a physical network but a lever of transformation of the country's economic and social life. Although the role of the state has been decisive and remains focal, it is not enough to explain the extreme rapidity with which the new electronic medium spread, which is due to a broad range of causes. The Korean experience differs from former ones in that it extends well beyond the market sphere (ecommerce) to areas such as education, volunteer associations and even politics. The emergence of a national dimension constitutes another characteristic that at first seems paradoxical, since the Internet is so universal in scope. Yet observation of the evolution of Internet traffic on the national level confirms this trend. South Korea is far from an exceptional case in Asia, but the country has taken the lead over its neighbors, becoming a new "model." Beyond these singular features, the Korean experience in the use of the Internet again demonstrates that a global "information revolution" – in other words, a process that is quickly reshaping the material bases of an entire society – is underway.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

58. Strengthening Financial Sector Governance in Emerging Markets

Author:
Robert Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Policymakers and analysts are still sifting through the wreckage of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the subsequent crises in Russia, Turkey, and Argentina to discern key lessons so that similar crises will not recur. Some lessons are by now well understood. Pegged exchange rates can encourage excessive borrowing and expose countries to financial collapse when foreign exchange reserves run dry. Inadequate disclosures by both private companies and public bodies can lead to similar dangers. Although many factors undoubtedly contributed to these crises, it is now widely recognized that each suffered from a failure in “governance,” and in particular a failure in governance in their financial sectors. Accordingly, the World Bank Group, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Brookings Institution devoted their fourth annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, held in New York from April 17-19, 2002, to the subject of financial sector governance in emerging markets. This conference report summarizes some of the highlights of the conference, whose full proceedings will be published as a Brookings book in the fall of 2002.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, New York, Turkey, Asia, and Argentina

59. A Private Hero for a Privatized Country

Author:
Leon Aron
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The most interesting phenomenon on Russia's literary scene today is the popularity of the Erast Fandorin mysteries by Grigoriy Shalvovich Chkhartishvili, who writes as Boris Akunin.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

60. International Bank Lending. Water Flowing Uphill?

Author:
John Hawkins
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
International bank lending is a major component of capital flows between advanced and emerging economies. However, in recent years these flows have been going the wrong way, like water flowing uphill. Even four years after the Asian crisis, there is a net flow of funds from emerging economies to banks in advanced economies. This paper looks at this phenomenon, starting by setting out the relevant data, and then looking at factors influencing these flows. These include both cyclical influences (both 'push' and 'pull') and structural changes within the banking industry. There is some evidence that international lenders are now discriminating more between the various emerging economies.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Asia