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562. George Russell Centre Newsletter No. 2, Financial System of Russia: Threats and Challenges of the 21st Century
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- On June 11, 2003 the second regular round - table discussion within open discussion “Future of Russia: Global Competitiveness Development” took place in the Moscow Center of the EastWest Institute. The topic under discussion was: ”Financial System of Russia: Threats and challenges of the 21st century”.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow
563. Quo Vadis? Inequality and Poverty Dynamics across Russian Regions
- Author:
- Ruslan Yemtsov
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses regional data on inequality and poverty in Russia during 1994-2000 using published series from the regionally representative Household Budget Survey. The paper finds that the share of inequality in Russia coming from the between-regions component is large (close to a third of the total inequality), growing, and accounts for most of the increase in national inequality over 1994-2000. The paper demonstrates an absence of interregional convergence in incomes across Russian regions using various techniques. On the other hand, the paper finds evidence of convergence in inequality within regions, trended towards an internationally high level. Based on these two findings, the paper projects dynamics of inequality and poverty in Russia over a ten-year time horizon. The projections show that if the observed trend continues, by 2010 the absolute majority of Russia's poor will be concentrated in a few permanently impoverished regions, while relatively more affluent regions will become virtually free of poverty. Finally, the paper relates fluctuations in inequality within regions to a set of factors classified into four broad categories: endowments and initial conditions, preferences, policies, and shocks. Among these factors short-run fluctuations of the unemployment rate are revealed as significant and strong signals of inequality.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Asia
564. Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for China
- Author:
- Martin Ravallion
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper tests for external effects of local economic activity on consumption and income growth at the farm household level using panel data from four provinces of post-reform rural China. The tests allow for nonstationary fixed effects in the consumption growth process. Evidence is found of geographic externalities, stemming from spillover effects of the level and composition of local economic activity and private returns to local human and physical infrastructure endowments. The results suggest an explanation for rural underdevelopment arising from underinvestment in certain externality-generating activities, of which agricultural development emerges as the most important.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
565. Social and Economic Decline as Factors in Conflict in the Caucasus
- Author:
- Svetlana Glinkina and Dorothy Rosenberg
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- We argue that the conflicts in the Caucasus are the result of the abrogation by the elite of the earlier, Soviet era, social contract. This process was accompanied by the collapse of the formal economy; evidenced by huge national income compression, falling public goods provision, and growing inequality and poverty. In the absence of state provision of basic amenities and governance, ordinary people are compelled to fall back on kinship ties. Declining standards of governance facilitate state-sponsored corruption and criminality in a setting where the shadow economic activity is increasingly important to individual survival strategies. Oil pipelines and the right to control the transit of goods both legal and illegal also underlie conflict in the region. Criminality has replaced ethnicity as the major motivation for conflict and conflict per se has become a lucrative source of income.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
566. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players
- Author:
- Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea
567. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
568. Whither Europe?
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- Where I live, on the West Coast of the United States, and teach, at the University of California, Europe seems far away. Geographically we are closer to Latin America and Asia. Ethnically, Californians of Hispanic and Asian-American descent are increasingly numerous. Within 20 years, residents of European origin will be a minority; already they are a minority of the undergraduates enrolling at Berkeley. Economically as well, we look to Asia. It is in California where the largest number of container ships arriving from Asia are unloaded, and it is across the Pacific, and in China in particular, that most of those containers originate.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, Asia, California, and Latin America
569. Institutions for Fiscal Stability (Financial Integration in Europe and Asia)
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen and Yung Chul Park
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies
- Abstract:
- One of the most striking aspects of Europe's recent development has been the growth and integration of financial markets. Bond markets have grown explosively since the advent of the euro. Cross border transactions in government bonds have risen sharply with the emergence of the German bund as a benchmark asset, while the volume of corporate bond issues has grown even more dramatically. Securities markets are consolidating around London and Frankfurt, which are competing for the mantle of Europe's dominant financial center. This rapid market integration has raised questions about the viability of Europe's traditional model of bank-based financial intermediation, causing commercial and investment banks to respond with a wave of mergers and acquisitions.
- Topic:
- Economics and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, London, and Germany
570. Good Intentions Will Not Pave The Road to Peace
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia