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211. Asset-Based Poverty in Rural Tajikistan: Who Climbs out and Who Falls in?

Author:
Oleksiy Ivaschenko and Cem Mete
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Tajikistan's rural sector has witnessed substantial development since the country began to emerge from civil conflict in 1999. Gross agricultural output increased 64 per cent from 1999 to 2003, and there were significant developments in the agricultural reform agenda. This paper uses the panel component of two surveys conducted in Tajikistan at one-year interval (2003 and 2004) to explore the major determinants of the transition out of/into poverty of rural households. Poverty status is measured in the asset space, thus indicating structural rather than transitory poverty movements. The empirical analysis reveals several interesting findings that are also important from a policy perspective: first, cotton farming seems to have no positive impact on poverty levels, nor on mobility out of poverty. Second, the rate of increase in the share of private farming at the district level had little impact on poverty levels and poverty mobility.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Asia and Tajikistan

212. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector

Author:
Peter Sheehan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

213. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

214. China's Development Strategy and Energy Security: Growth, Distribution and Regional Cooperation

Author:
Haider A. Khan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China's energy security. China's growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and South Korea

215. Comparing Regional Development in China and India

Author:
Yanrui Wu
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic growth in China and India has attracted many headlines recently. As a result, the literature comparing the two Asian giants has expanded substantially. This paper adds to the literature by comparing regional growth, disparity and convergence in the two economies. This is the first of its kind. The paper presents a detailed examination of economic growth in the regions of China and India over the past twenty years. It also provides an assessment of regional disparity in the two countries and investigates whether there is any evidence of regional convergence during the period of rapid economic growth. It attempts to identify the sources of regional disparity and hence draw policy implications for economic development in the two countries in the near future.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

216. The Determinants of Child Weight and Height in Sri Lanka: A Quantile Regression Approach

Author:
Harsha Aturupane, Anil B. Deolalikar, and Dileni Gunewardena
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Reducing child malnutrition is a key goal of most developing countries. To combat child malnutrition with the right set of interventions, policymakers need to have a better understanding of its economic, social and policy determinants. While there is a large literature that investigates the determinants of child malnutrition, it focuses almost exclusively on mean effects of these determinants. However, socioeconomic background variables and policy interventions may affect child nutrition differently at different points of the conditional nutritional distribution. Using quantile regressions, this paper explores the effect s of variables such as a child's age, sex and birth order; household expenditure per capita; parental schooling; and infrastructure on child weight and height at different points of the conditional distributions of weight and height using data from Sri Lanka's Demographic and Health Survey. Results indicate that OLS estimates can be misleading in predicting the effects of determinants at the lower end of the distributions of weight and height. For example, even though on average Sri Lankan girls are not nutritionally-disadvantaged relative to boys, among children at the highest risk of malnutrition girls are disadvantaged relative to boys. Likewise, although expenditure per capita is associated with strong nutritional improvement on average, it is not a significant determinant of child height or weight at the lower end of the distribution. Similarly, parental education, electricity access, and the availability of piped water have larger effect son child weight and height at the upper quantiles than at the lower quantiles. The policy implication is that general interventions—parental schooling, infrastructure and income growth—are not as effective for children in the lower tail of the conditional weight and height distributions. These children, who are at the highest risk of malnutrition, are likely to need specialized nutritional interventions.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Health
Political Geography:
Asia and Sri Lanka

217. Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

Author:
Yuefen Li and Bin Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

218. Drought Management Considerations for Climate Change Adaptation

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Cambodia is one of the most disaster-prone countries in East Asia, with its vulnerability to annual floods and droughts. One of the reasons why it is vulnerable to natural disasters is that the livelihoods of the majority of people depend directly upon natural resources, with a large proportion of its population occupied in agriculture and related sectors, including animal husbandry. Extreme poverty, which limits access to food, water, and other basic amenities, increases vulnerability. These characteristics heighten Cambodia's exposure to the impacts of climate change too. The Mekong region has recently been showing signs of climate change, as illustrated in our previous report on VietNam ('Drought-Management Considerations for Climate-Change Adaptation: Focus on the Mekong Region – Report (VietNam)', October 2007). There is evidence of greater climatic extremes: both declining rainfall in the dry season and more violent rainfall in the wet season, causing flash floods. Increasingly powerful typhoons also appear to be occurring.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
East Asia, Asia, Vietnam, and Cambodia

219. The Experience with Regional Economic Cooperation Organizations: Lessons for Central Asia

Author:
Johannes F. Linn and Oksana Pidufala
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asia has witnessed repeated efforts to strengthen regional integration through cooperation with the establishment of a number of regional organizations with Central Asian participation. In this paper, we review the experience with regional cooperation initiatives and organizations in Central Asia and the rest of the world. Using a typology of regional organizations that we have developed for this paper, we review the functions and performance of selected regional organizations and compile evidence more generally on the experience with regional cooperation around the globe. Based on this we draw some lessons to help Central Asian countries, their partners and their regional organizations respond effectively to the opportunities and challenges of regional cooperation and integration. Central Asian countries need to realize that effective cooperation is not easy. It takes time and requires a flexible, constructive approach of all major partners. It also requires effective leadership by key countries, institutions and individuals and a careful selectivity for membership and for the mandate of the organization. Where multiple regional organizations overlap in membership and mandate, it is essential to address the risk of costly duplication. The paper concludes with an assessment of the specific implications for the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program.
Topic:
Development and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

220. 'Cast the Net Wider': How a Vision of Global Halal Markets is Overcoming Network Envy

Author:
Johan Fischer
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores Malaysia's bid to become the world leader in rapidly expanding halal (lawful or permitted) markets on a global scale. Over the last three decades, a powerful state nationalism has emerged, represented by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the dominant political party in Malaysia. The state has effectively certified standardised and bureaucratised Malaysian halal production, trade and consumption. Now, the vision is to export this model, and for that purpose the network as a strategic metaphor is being evoked to signify connectedness and prescriptions of organisation vis-à-vis more deep-rooted networks. Building on empirical material from research in Malaysia and Britain, I shall show how networks are understood and practised in a metaphorical sense.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Britain, Malaysia, and Asia