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2731. China and the OECD

Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China's economic growth has averaged 9½ per cent over the past two decades. The rapid pace of economic change is likely to be sustained for some time. These gains have contributed not only to higher personal incomes, but also to a significant reduction in poverty. At the same time, the economy has become substantially integrated with the world economy. A large part of these gains have come through profound shifts in government policies. Reforms have allowed market prices and private investors to play a significant role in production and trade.
Topic:
Agriculture, Government, and International Organization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2732. Dysfunction of an Ideological State: Pakistan's Recurrent Crisis in Historic Context

Author:
Hussain Haqqani
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Pakistan's President Musharraf has taken on the mantle of a leader dedicated to transforming his country from an Islamic ideological state to a moderate Muslim country. Are Musharraf's policies really aimed at changing Pakistan's direction or are they simply part of an effort to salvage a critical policy paradigm adopted by Pakistan's militaryled oligarchy since the country's early days? The author defines the core elements of Pakistani grand strategy by focusing on a policy tripod: the emphasis on Islam as an element of national policy empowered the new country's religious leaders; the inflexibility in relations with India and the belief that India represented an existential threat to Pakistan justified maintaining a large military which, in turn, helped the military assert its dominance in the country's life, and finally; the search for foreign allies who could pay for the country's defense and economic growth resulted in Pakistan's alliance with the West, especially the United States. If Pakistan does not transcend the dynamic created by an ideology defined by the mosque and an overly dominant military, it runs the risk of becoming a failed state with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Asia

2733. Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Author:
Alan J. Ahearne, John G. Fernald, John W. Schindler, and Prakash Loungani
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work (Ahearne, Fernald, Loungani and Schindler, 2003) on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies in Asia. We continue to find that while exchange rates matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters far more. This suggests the potential for exports of all Asian economies to grow in harmony as long as global growth is strong. We also examine changes in export shares of Asian economies to the U.S. market and find evidence that dramatic changes in shares are taking place. Many of these changes are consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China moves into the product space vacated by the Asian NIEs or with greater integration of trade across Asia in the production of final goods. Nevertheless, China's dramatic gains in recent years do increase the pressure on Asian economies, particularly in ASEAN and South Asia, to seek areas of comparative advantage.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and Asia

2734. What Could Go Wrong?

Author:
Harry Harding
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2735. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2736. Comments on China as a Regional Player

Author:
Edward J. Lincoln
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

2737. Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic Ambitions: Building an Effective Policy Coordination Process

Author:
F. Stephen Larrabee, Jeffrey Simon, Jan Neutze, and Steven Pifer
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since his inauguration in January 2005, Ukrainian President Viktor Yush-chenko has repeatedly stated that his foremost foreign policy goal is his country's integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. “Joining Europe” today, be it preparing a country for a bid to enter the European Union or NATO, is an extraordinarily complex business. It will require the development of a consensus on a Euro-Atlantic policy course among the country's political leadership. It will also require an effective and coherent policy coordination structure. As the experience of other Eastern European countries has demonstrated, integration into the European Union or NATO is not just the responsibility of the foreign and defense ministries. It also requires coordination with the ministries of economy, justice, agrarian policy, transportation and communications, internal affairs – indeed, virtually every ministry in the Ukrainian Cabinet.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

2738. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus

Author:
Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

2739. Understanding South Korea and Japan's Spectacular Broadband Development: Strategic Liberalization of the Telecommunications Sectors

Author:
Seung-Youn Oh and Kenji Kushida
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The ICT sectors of both South Korea and Japan developed rapidly, especially in developing high-speed, low priced broadband services. These networks can potentially provide both economies with new playgrounds for experimentation and innovation. Existing explanations of how these broadband networks and services were created tend to be confused and contradictory regarding 1) the roles played by the states, 2) the exact mechanisms of interaction between governments policies and programs, regulatory frameworks, and market dynamics, and 3) the politics driving each of the state-market interactions.
Topic:
International Political Economy and Markets
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and South Korea

2740. China as "Victim"? The Opium War That Wasn't

Author:
Harry G. Gelber
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The 1840-42 Anglo-Chinese war (the so-called “Opium War”) is almost universally believed to have been triggered by British imperial rapacity and determination to sell more and more opium into China. That belief is mistaken. The British went to war because of Chinese military threats to defenseless British civilians, including women and children; because China refused to negotiate on terms of diplomatic equality and because China refused to open more ports than Canton to trade, not just with Britain but with everybody. The belief about British “guilt” came later, as part of China's long catalogue of alleged Western “exploitation and aggression.”
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia