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2572. East Asian Security: Two Views
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman and Chu Shulong
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In the post-Cold War era and in the early 21st century, the region of Northeast Asia remains one of the most unstable areas in Asia and in the world compared with other regions of Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Southern Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Africa, and Latin America. And it could become a harsh strategic confrontational area between major powers in Asia and in the world in the future, if those major powers like the United States, China, Japan, and Russia do not manage their relationships well. It can also become a place of hot war or new Cold War in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, if the two Koreas and two sides of the Taiwan Strait problem cannot manage the unresolved issues in their relations. Northeast Asia is also on track to become another center of the global economy, science and technology, military, and international politics. Opportunities as well as challenges to Asia and the world come from the “rising” China and Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
2573. Overcoming the Obstacles to Establishing a Democratic State in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Dennis Young
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- After the Taliban regime was driven out of Afghanistan in late 2001, the United States and other members of the international community undertook efforts to establish and stabilize a liberal democratic form of government in that country. Such an undertaking is a monumental task, fraught with many obstacles and challenges. This paper looks at several of the obstacles to democracy in Afghanistan, to include the absence of a democratic history and tradition, an endemic culture of corruption, a pervasive narcotics trade and drug trafficking problem, tribalism and ethnic divides among the population, and finally the lack of support or assistance from neighboring Pakistan. The author proposes five possible strategies and adjustments to current efforts by the international community, led by the United States and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). If these strategies are adopted, the environment in Afghanistan will be more secure, the government more stable, and liberal democracy will have a much greater chance of taking hold and flourishing. Afghanistan and this region of the world will also be less likely to harbor terrorist operations and organizations such as al-Qaeda and the Taliban to threaten the democratic nations of the world.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Asia
2574. Opium and Afghanistan: Reassessing U.S. Counternarcotics Strategy
- Author:
- John A. Glaze
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Cultivation and production of opium in Afghanistan have skyrocketed since the Taliban were toppled in 2001 such that Afghanistan now supplies 92 percent of the world's illicit opium. The expanding opium trade is threatening to destabilize the Afghan government and turn the conflict-ridden country back into a safe haven for drug traffickers and terrorists. This paper examines the nature of the opium problem in Afghanistan and analyzes the allied strategy to counter this growing crisis. In analyzing the current counternarcotics strategy, it points out pitfalls including the counterproductive aspects of opium eradication. Finally, changes to the strategy are proposed, which include increasing troop levels and eliminating national restrictions, substantially increasing financial aid, deemphasizing opium eradication, focusing on long-term alternative livelihoods, aggressively pursuing drug kingpins and corrupt government officials, and exploring the possibility of Afghanistan's entry to the licit opium market.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Asia
2575. Turkmenistan and Central Asia after Niyazov
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Sapirmurat Niyazov ruled Turkmenistan, a small Central Asian country with enormous natural gas holdings, like a sultan or latter-day Stalin. Therefore his sudden death on December 21, 2006, opened the way not just to a domestic power struggle, but also to fears of instability in Turkmenistan and Central Asia, and to a major international struggle among the great powers—Russia, China, Iran, and the United States—for influence over the new leadership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Islam
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, and Turkmenistan
2576. ASEAN and Its Security Offspring: Facing New Challenges
- Author:
- Sheldon W. Simon
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In its 40 years of existence, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has played well above its collective weight in world politics, though its reputation for effective diplomacy was seriously tarnished by an inability to resolve the region's 1997-98 financial crisis and other political challenges in the 1990s, including East Timor's secession from Indonesia, annual forest fire haze from Indonesian Borneo that creates a regional public health hazard, and the 1997 Cambodian coup that overturned an ASEAN-endorsed election. The primary explanation for ASEAN's political weakness has been its attachment to the principle of noninterference in its members' domestic affairs. Much of ASEAN's political effort in the early 21st century is devoted to overcoming this weakness.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Globalization
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Cambodia
2577. Renewing the Pacific Partnership
- Author:
- Charles Morrison and Peter Petri
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The rise of China, India, and other Asian nations is creating a new “core” of the world economy centered on the Pacific. It is essential for the United States to remain vigorously engaged in this region, yet the climate of our relations with Asian partners is cooling. The United States and Asia have yet to find a way to cooperate effectively on any significant global issue. This dilemma, we argue, requires urgent attention on both sides of the Pacific, and specifically a U.S. strategy that features innovative civil diplomacy alongside official initiatives.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
2578. Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia
- Author:
- Peter Timmer and Neil McCulloch
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Most poor people in developing countries still live in rural areas and are primarily engaged in low productivity farming activities. Thus pathways out of poverty are likely to be strongly connected to productivity increases in the rural economy, whether they are realised in farming, rural non-farm enterprises or via rural-urban migration. We use cross-sectional data from the Central Statistical Board (BPS) for 1993 and 2002, as well as a panel data set from the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) for 1993 and 2000, to show which pathways out of poverty were most successful over this period. Our findings suggest that increased engagement of farmers in rural non-farm enterprises is an important route out of rural poverty, but that most of the rural agricultural poor that exit poverty still do so while remaining rural and agricultural. Thus changes in agricultural prices, wages and productivity still play a critical role in moving people out of poverty.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
2579. North Korea-Russian Relations: A Strained Friendship
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- North Korea's relations with Russia have been marked by unrealistic expectations and frequent disappointments but common interests have prevented a rupture. The neighbours' history as dissatisfied allies goes back to the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) with Soviet support and the Red Army's installation of Kim Il-sung as leader. However, the Soviets were soon written out of the North's official ideology. The Sino-Soviet split established a pattern of Kim playing Russian and Chinese leaders off against each other to extract concessions, including the nuclear equipment and technology at the heart of the current crisis. Since Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in 2000, diplomatic initiatives have come undone and grandiose economic projects have faltered. Russia is arguably the least effective participant in the six-party nuclear talks.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, North Korea, and Pyongyang
2580. South Korea's Election: What to Expect from President Lee
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 19 December 2007, South Koreans elected Lee Myung-bak as their president. Barring sensational developments in a scandal investigation that still dogs him, Lee, the candidate of the conservative Grand National Party (GNP or “Hannaradang”) will be inaugurated on 25 February 2008 to replace Roh Moo-hyun, who is limited by the constitution to a single five-year term. A former top executive of the Hyundai conglomerate, he has pledged to be an “economic president who will revive the economy with his practical business experience”. Although he has ideological differences with his liberal predecessor, he is unlikely to make dramatic changes in foreign or security policy.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea