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61. The Armenian Community and the AK Party: Finding Trust under the Crescent

Author:
Vahram Ter-Matevosyan
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This article aims to explore one of the critical and relatively understudied dimensions of Turkish politics: the complex characteristics of interactions between the Armenian community (mainly Gregorian Orthodox Christians) and the incumbent government of the Justice and Development Party. Two interrelated questions are raised below: Why did the relationship between the AK Party and the Armenian community become an important topic to discuss? What repercussions did the assassination of Hrant Dink in 2007 have on relations between the Turkish government and the Armenian community? The answers to these questions can help us better understand why a majority party with Islamic roots produced more reliable bonds for the Christian minority than previous governments with their more secular backgrounds and political agendas. I argue that the Armenian community in Turkey is in a constant quest for a secure socio-political climate where it can safely preserve its cultural, ethnic and religious identity. Hence, the political agenda of the AK Party essentially matched the Armenian community's aspirations for large-scale reforms, which paved the way for a period of vigilant collaboration that remained in effect until the assassination of Hrant Dink.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Armenia

62. Regional Energy Equations and Turkish Foreign Policy: The Middle East and the CIS

Author:
Tuncay Babalı
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey has become an important east-west and north-south gas and oil transit route and an energy hub, thanks to the Turkish straits, and the existing and proposed pipelines that run through its territory. Economic opportunities, however, can present diplomatic liabilities. In a tough and complicated region, Turkey finds itself caught between the interests of competing superpowers and regional players. As the world's 16th largest economy, Turkey's thirst for energy will only increase. Satisfying this thirst requires not only diversification of sources and routes, but also good relations with all neighbors, in addition to traditional partners. An analysis of Ankara's options and new foreign policy vision shows that Turkey has little choice but to use greater caution and engagement. Following its own national interests and security concerns will drive Turkey to new openings in Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia and other CIS countries. Energy will be one of the main pillars of Turkey's policy of engagement and integration in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, and Syria

63. The Turkish-Armenian Debacle

Author:
Semih İdiz
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Turkey and Armenia signed two protocols on October 10, 2009 at Zurich University in Switzerland, with a view to opening a new chapter in bilateral ties, as well as improving the troubled relations between Turks and Armenians in general. But the signing ceremony in Zurich had started inauspiciously. The problem turned out to be the seemingly intractable issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, which cast its shadow over the process at the outset. After Karabakh, the second key issue that emerged was a ruling by the Constitutional Court of Armenia, which said that the protocols in question could not stop the government of Armenia from pursuing its duty of trying to get international recognition for the genocide allegedly perpetrated by Ottoman Turks against Armenians. These two topics effectively blocked the process enshrined in the protocols. But how could these problems not be foreseen? What were the two governments expecting in this respect when signing the protocols?
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and Switzerland

64. Prospects for Normalization between Armenia and Turkey: A View from Yerevan

Author:
Sergey Minasyan
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Since Armenia's independence in 1991, its three successive presidents have invariably expressed their country's readiness to normalize relations with Turkey without preconditions. This is despite unsettled historical issues between these two nations, namely the issue of the 1915 Genocide of Armenians by Ottoman Turkey, and the disappointing record of the last two decades in which Turkey sealed its borders to Armenia and failed to establish diplomatic ties with it. Should ratification fail, it will be very hard for the two countries, and especially for Armenia, to continue with normalization. By spring 2010, mistrust of Turkey grew significantly even among those political circles in Armenia that were originally very pro-rapprochement and argued in favour of it in discussions with nationalists and Diaspora actors. Armenian society's perspective on relations with Turkey is again moving closer to that of the Diaspora.
Topic:
Genocide
Political Geography:
Turkey and Armenia

65. Russia and Turkish-Armenian Normalization: Competing Interests in the South Caucasus

Author:
Igor Torbakov
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Following the 2008 Georgia war, Russia reasserted itself as the main power in the Caucasus. The war shattered the old status quo and Moscow sought to make good use of the shifting geopolitical landscape to enhance its strategic footprint in the region. Russia's policy in the Caucasus has been an example of a subtle balancing act: it appeared to have encouraged Turkish-Armenian reconciliation while at the same time skillfully exploiting the suspicions that this process aroused in Azerbaijan and seeking to put an additional pressure on Georgia. Now, as Turkish-Armenian normalization seems to have hit a snag, Moscow can safely distance itself from what increasingly looks like a failure. After all, having deftly played all its “partners” off against each other, Russia appears to have secured its objective: both Armenia and Azerbaijan tend to lean more on Russia, while Turkey's relations with the two Caucasus countries has deteriorated. Moreover, Ankara's ties with Washington became frayed, too, which, from Moscow's perspective, isn't bad either.
Political Geography:
Russia, Washington, Caucasus, Moscow, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

66. Turkish-Armenian Protocols: An Azerbaijani Perspective

Author:
Elhan Mehtiyev
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
This commentary addresses Azerbaijan's position prior to and in the aftermath of the Turkish-Armenian Protocols signed in October 2009. It critically analyzes Azerbaijan's reactions to the Protocols, Turkey's diplomatic initiatives, and its perception of Turkey's position in this process. By signing the protocols, Turkey did nothing in practice against Azerbaijani interests except to reiterate the interdependence between any Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and Armenia's move on the NK settlement. The commentary argues that the inexperienced Azerbaijani administration failed to manage Azerbaijani society's reactions to Turkey's signing of protocols with Armenia. It also discusses the consequences of a possible opening of Turkish-Armenian border for Azerbaijan and the region, and concludes that the way out of the frozen conflicts is contained in Turkey's proposal for a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform.
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

67. The Bermuda Triangle: Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia

Author:
Yalım Eralp
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The Protocols signed between Armenia and Turkey constitute a significant threshold in the relationship between the two countries. The process of ratification has been stalled, especially due to issues in Turkish domestic politics, and the Protocols have been shelved for now. However, it is important to not completely kill the process. It would thus be helpful in terms of a soft transition into the future if both parties implement those clauses in the Protocols that do not require ratification.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, and Armenia

68. Turkish Foreign Policy in 2009: A Year of Pro-activity

Author:
Ufuk Ulutaş
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Since the early 2000s, Turkish foreign policy has experienced a fundamental transformation. Turkey's regional and global position, its relations with the countries in surrounding regions, and its long-lasting disputes with its neighbors were reshaped through the adoption of the "zero-problem with-neighbors" policy. In line with this policy, Turkey has taken a pro-active stance and followed a multi-dimensional foreign policy approach to establish itself, first, as a conciliatory partner for peace with its neighbors, and second, as an agent of mediation between its clashing neighboring countries. 2009 was a year of foreign policy initiatives towards Syria, Armenia, and Iraq, including the Kurdish Regional Government. And it marked the beginning of more positive and constructive relations between Turkey and the United States. Turkey gained substantial ground in becoming a regional hub for energy by undersigning two critical energy deals. Yet, two major issues remain as challenges for Turkish foreign policy: a) the EU accession process, and b) the Cyprus dispute.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, and Syria

69. NOTE FROM THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

Author:
Nasimi Aghayev
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
Events in the Caucasus have continued to offer observers choice issues for analysis. On everyone's mind, of course, is the lack of development in the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. The two sticking-points – the “Armenian genocide” issue and that of acknowledging Azerbaijan's call for first making progress toward a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – have remained major obstacles in the way forward. The “genocide” obstacle has been strengthened by the statement of the Constitutional Court of Armenia that the application of the protocols signed in October 2009 should comply with the paragraph 11 of the Armenian Declaration of Independence. The said declaration determines for Armenia a goal of achieving the international recognition of the “genocide” on the one hand, and raises territorial claims against Turkey on the other hand. Ankara's reaction to the statement has been quite harsh, since such an understanding on the part of Armenia of the normalization process wouldn't allow for setting up the bilateral “historical commission” envisaged in the protocols – an issue, which has been regarded by Turkey as the major achievement in the whole process.
Political Geography:
America, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

70. Puzzles of State Transformation: The Case of Armenia and Georgia

Author:
Nicole Gallina
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
The problems of weak state structures, including state territoriality, in the South Caucasus has highly influenced political developments and the building of a democratic state. This paper explains the difficulty of recovering statehood in the cases of Armenia and Georgia, both in the context of post–Soviet state transformation and post–conflict state-rebuilding. It argues that recovering statehood in the South Caucasus meant at once maintaining the status quo within the state structures and managing the highly volatile political and ethnic relations (culminating in armed conflict). In the cases of conflict, elite management impeded conflict solution. In this context, this paper finds that elite power slowed the construction of a democratic and effective state. In particular, elite fragmentation has led to serious impediments for state development and the consolidation of territoriality. In sum, elite-led state development and conflict management hindered the successful consolidation of state territoriality.
Political Geography:
Soviet Union, Armenia, Georgia, and South Caucasus