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11. Tehran’s Armenian weapons supply route

Author:
Alexander Grinberg
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Armenia is one of several routes used by Iran to smuggle arms to its regional proxies and clients. It also manufactures its own versions of Russian weapons that are used only by these groups and provides them with the knowledge to locally manufacture Iranian arms.
Topic:
Weapons, Proxy Groups, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Armenia

12. Proposal for a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) for Peace in the South Caucasus

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Rusif Huseynov, Tatul Manaseryan, Arman Martirosyan, and Niko Orell
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Armenia and Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, are facing unprecedented challenges that arise from unfolding climate change and seismic risk in the South Caucasus. Placing considerable strain on economies, livelihoods, and government resources, these hazards can significantly worsen the complex geopolitical landscape and exacerbate unresolved political issues. The absence of structured and coordinated disaster response mechanisms can increase vulnerability and hamper effective crisis management, leading to avoidable loss of life, widespread suffering, and significant economic damage. We propose the establishment of a Regional Emergency Action Partnership (REAP) in the form of a coordinated binational disaster response system. This system could enable better preparation and facilitate effective responses to disasters that are likely to have an impact across borders, ultimately saving lives through joint efforts and resource mobilisation. Including Georgia would further strengthen such a crisis management system and solidify regional cooperation. Furthermore, this mechanism could help catalyse political rapprochement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Natural disasters and humanitarian crises can bring adversarial states together and unexpectedly foster collaboration. Greece and Türkiye have engaged in “earthquake diplomacy”, and despite the lack of diplomatic relations, Armenia and Türkiye briefly reopened their border to facilitate aid during the devastating 2023 Turkish earthquake (see Case Study 1 for more information). This rare example of earthquake diplomacy demonstrates how countries in seismically active regions can share common threats and opportunities for cooperation in their disaster responses. Similarly, Israel, Jordan, and Palestine have conducted joint disaster-response exercises involving 400 firefighters, medical personnel, and first responders, and the United States and Western states extended considerable support to the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the 1988 Armenian earthquake.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Partnerships, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

13. Enhancing Prospects for Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan through Joint Climate Change and Energy Security Action

Author:
Anar Ahmadov, Agha Bayramov, Tatul Manaseryan, and Arman Martirosyan
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This Policy Brief outlines practical ways in which environmental and energy cooperation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could foster regional stability and peace amid the looming impacts of climate change. Collaboration on shared resources could mitigate the negative impacts of cross-border environmental challenges while fostering mutual trust, thereby reducing the risk of future conflicts. Joint efforts to produce and transmit renewable and non-renewable energy resources could further promote regional stability by strengthening energy security and deepening economic interconnectivity. Joint action on climate change is becoming increasingly urgent in the South Caucasus, especially between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries face serious economic, social, and political risks from climate impacts, including rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, desertification, extreme weather, water scarcity, and the spread of diseases. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also likely to face challenges affecting energy dependence and security, although in different ways. These challenges are likely to strain resources, heighten tensions, and increase the potential for conflict within and between these two nations. To mitigate climate change impacts, enhance energy security, and reduce the risk of conflict, cooperation is crucial, particularly as Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate a fragile post-conflict environment. The Policy Brief proposes five actionable policy options to promote environmental and energy cooperation. Their implementation would create platforms for government representatives, experts, and civil society members and organisations to jointly study, deliberate, and negotiate through technical and economic communication channels, fostering mutual understanding, confidence building, and reconciliation through shared problem solving. After discussing these policy options, the Policy Brief concludes by summarising the key take-aways from this important discussion.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Regional Cooperation, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

14. Prospects for the Normalisation of Turkish-Armenian Relations Improving

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska and Wojciech Wojtasiewicz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The fifth round of negotiations between Türkiye and Armenia, held on 30 July, offers hope for an acceleration of the normalisation of their relations, including the opening of borders between the countries. However, the success of the negotiations depends on the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan. Such an agreement would unblock transport routes in the South Caucasus region, as well as increase the presence of the EU and Poland in the region.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Borders, Negotiation, Transportation, Normalization, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Poland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

15. Balancing Natural Resources and Human and Social Capital: Pathways to Economic Diversification in Mongolia

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason and Jean-Pascal N. Nganou
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Economic diversification has gained significant attention as a crucial factor for sustainable development worldwide. This paper addresses the risks associated with extreme specialisation and explores the potential benefits of economic diversification for Mongolia. By comparing Mongolia with its designated aspirational and structural peers, the paper aims to shed light on strategies that can foster economic and societal diversification in the country. Although Mongolia possesses favourable levels of human capital compared with its peers, its unusually high ratio of natural capital to human capital highlights the necessity of reducing reliance on natural resources and promoting human capital-intensive economic activities. The paper examines the implications of declining demand for Mongolia's key minerals, primarily coal, resulting from climate change concerns and evolving investor preferences towards sustainability, China's coal consumption reduction goals, and the enduring impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through this analysis, the paper offers insights into pathways for Mongolia to diversify its economy and enhance the well-being of its people by striking a balance between natural resources and human and social capital.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Governance, Democracy, Economic Growth, Human Capital, Diversification, Macroeconomics, Social Capital, Transition, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Malaysia, Canada, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Armenia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Peru, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, and Guyana

16. South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War” is dedicated to the different mediation activities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s internationally wrongful acts and foreign policy, Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, as well as the news initiatives in the South Caucasus region. The CSP’s new issue includes 7 articles. The CSP’s current authors analysed the EU’s and the US’s mediator roles to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s international responsibility in relation to the formerly occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Russia-Armenia relations, the perspective of the Middle Corridor, and Iran-Armenia relations and its implications for Azerbaijan, etc.
Topic:
Nationalism, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Mediation, Peacebuilding, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Ecocide
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

17. THE IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT ON ARMENIA'S FOREIGN TRADE: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

Author:
Diana Galoyan and Diana Matevosyan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This article aimed to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The research problem was to analyze how the conflict influenced Armenia’s export and import patterns regarding geographical directions and product structure. The objectives were to examine the changes in trade turnover and identify shifts in geographical trade directions and trade structure. The study employed various statistical analysis tools, including dynamic series indicators, structural analysis, time series modeling, trend and moving average approximation, and extrapolation. Through these methods, the study evaluated the effects of the conflict on Armenia’s foreign trade. The key results indicated a positive impact of the conflict on trade turnover, with increased trade activity in various geographical directions. Export diversification was also observed as a result of the conflict. Notably, re-export played a significant role in the unprecedented growth of Armenia’s trade turnover during this period. In conclusion, the findings suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict had a discernible influence on Armenia’s foreign trade, leading to changes in trade patterns and increased trade activity. The study highlights the importance of the re-exports role in analyzing trade dynamics.
Topic:
Economy, Exports, Trade, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Armenia

18. The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

Author:
Walter Landgraf and Nareg Seferian
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
The US-Armenia “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise from September 11–20 may signal the beginning of a shift in the foreign policy direction of Armenia, historically a close ally to Russia. Armenia has been growing frustrated at the lackluster response of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to its appeals for assistance in the deepening conflict with Azerbaijan. However, it would be difficult to imagine a wholesale change in the geopolitical orientation in Yerevan, given the strong military, economic, energy, and cultural ties between Armenia and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Military, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, North America, South Caucasus, and United States of America

19. Fragile States Index 2023 – Annual Report

Author:
Nate Haken, Daniel Woodburn, Emily Sample, Wendy Wilson, and John Madden
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
War, Territorial Disputes, Fragile States, Political stability, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Sudan, Turkey, Ukraine, France, Armenia, Peru, Guyana, Global Focus, Burkina Faso, and Nagorno-Karabakh

20. The Russian Bloodletting Strategy in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War: From Success to Hubris

Author:
Spyridon N. Litsas
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The article focuses on the role of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in shaping the balance of power in the Lesser Caucasus as a prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that Russia implemented a “bait and bleed” strategy to discipline Armenia for its pro-Western agenda. In addition, it focuses on Turkey’s role as a supportive apparatus for Azerbaijan’s military efforts against Armenia, evaluating the connection established between Moscow and Ankara. The Nagorno-Karabakh case marked a new manipulative Russian strategy to influence the balance of power in regions with geostrategic significance for the Kremlin.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan