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51. Recent Trends in Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

Author:
Richard Giragosian and Sergey Minasyan
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
After twenty years of independence, the three counties of the South Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia-continue to struggle with a daunting set of challenges. In light of several unresolved conflicts and profound deficiencies in efforts directed at democratic and economic reform, the South Caucasus continues to be a "region at risk." As if this rather bleak landscape was not enough, three more recent trends have emerged to further threaten the region's security and stability. The first trend, and one that is likely to have the most profound effects over the long term, is evident in a subtle shift in the already delicate balance of power in the region, driven largely by a steady surge in Azerbaijani defense spending and exacerbated by a lack of progress in the mediation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Since the 1994 ceasefire that resulted in the suspension of hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh (but that did not definitively end them), this unresolved or "frozen" conflict has been subject to an international mediation effort conducted by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) so-called Minsk Group. This tripartite body co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States seeks to engage and prod the parties to the conflict toward a negotiated resolution of the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

52. Spillovers from the Arab Revolts: Is Armenia next in line?

Author:
Hrant Kostanyan
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The recent cycle of revolutions in Arab countries has caught policy-makers and experts off guard. The decades-long kleptocracy, systemic corruption, economic stagnation and censorship are merely some of named causes accounting for the shake-up of the old order in Europe's Southern Neighbourhood. The choices that citizens were deprived of making through the ballot box have been accomplished by taking to the streets. Policymakers and analysts are contemplating the possible scenarios for the countries that have finally brought down their dictators. EU leaders are debating support they can provide to help in the establishment of 'good governance.' Meanwhile questions are being asked about the possible implications of the successful revolutions beyond the Arab world and especially for the EU's Eastern neighbours. In his recent speech, the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, stated: “Although recent developments concentrated our political attention to the South, we certainly cannot afford to forget about the Union's Eastern neighbourhood.”
Topic:
Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Arab Countries, and Armenia

53. South Caucasus: What Prospects after Twenty Years of "Managed Instability"?

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the three Caucasian Republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the region remains characterized by a state of “managed instability” due to the absence of solutions to the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and between Georgia and Russia (over territorial issues and political differences). Negotiation mechanisms aimed at solving these issues exist (since 1992 for Nagorno-Karabakh, and since 1991 for Georgia), but they do not appear to produce meaningful results, raising questions on the purpose of these mechanisms and the future of the region beyond the lasting status quo. A movement toward deeper instability in the region, which cannot be excluded, would pose a direct security threat to Europe, as well as to Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

54. From the Editor

Author:
Rashid I. Khalidi
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
THIS ISSUE OF THE JOURNAL carries an article, a report, and three essays which share a focus on recent events, as well as two substantial articles on historical topics with continuing relevance, about the Greek Orthodox and Armenian communities of Palestine.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Palestine, Gaza, and Armenia

55. The Armenians of Palestine 1918–48

Author:
Bedross Der Matossian
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
For the Armenians of Palestine, the three decades of the Mandate were probably the most momentous in their fifteen hundred-year presence in the country. The period witnessed the community's profound transformation under the double impacts of Britain's Palestine policy and waves of destitute Armenian refugees fleeing the massacres in Anatolia. The article presents, against the background of late Ottoman rule, a comprehensive overview of the community, including the complexities and role of the religious hierarchy, the initially difficult encounter between the indigenous Armenians and the new refugee majority, their politics and associations, and their remarkable economic recovery. By the early 1940s, the Armenian community was at the peak of its success, only to be dealt a mortal blow by the 1948 war, from which it never recovered.
Topic:
Religion and War
Political Geography:
Britain, Palestine, and Armenia

56. Tableau de bord des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale et d'Eurasie 2011 (Volume 2)

Author:
Jean-Pierre Pagé
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe and Eurasia Dashboard 2011 (Volume 2)
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, Politics, Governance, Finance, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Eastern Europe, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Central Europe, and Belarus

57. 1995 was a Good Year for the South Caucasus

Author:
Gerard J. Libaridian
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
The article discusses the inter-ethnic conflicts in the South Caucasus while focusing on the policies of the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and offers an illuminating account on the role of leadership in conflict resolution while taking into account domestic, regional and international settings. The author considers 1995 as the first year of stabilized region and discusses the reasons why this rare opportunity for conflict resolution in the South Caucasus offered by 1995 was not realized.
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

58. Foreign Policies of the States of the Caucasus: Evolution in the Post-Soviet Period

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
The article examines the development of the foreign policies and strategies of the three states of the Caucasus-Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia—in the post-Soviet period. The article claims that ideology and identity have had little impact on the alliances and foreign policy orientations adopted by the three states. Second, the three states of the Caucasus adopted fundamentally different policies toward Russia. Third, geographic factors have had significant influence on their foreign policy options. Fourth, managing the results of the secessionist conflicts has been a major goal of their foreign policy efforts and the conflicts are a useful lever of neighboring powers. Fifth, the foreign policy making capability of the three states has expanded significantly. Last, the foreign policy options of the three states have been limited by the policies of the major powers in the region.
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

59. The Azerbaijan-Russia-Turkey Energy Triangle and its Impact on the Future of Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Caucasian-Caspian region has become a stage for the collision of opposing foreign security and energy policies. After 16 years of a very fragile ceasefire, the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh continues to depend not only on the attitudes of the conflict parties, but also and perhaps even more on the re-organization of the region at the political, security and energy levels. Three main developments can affect the prospects for conflict resolution in Karabakh: the parties' growing frustration with the OSCE Minsk-Group mediation; the US-brokered Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the deterioration in US-Azeri relations; and finally, Russia's resurgence in the region. These three inter-related factors could result in a new regional scenario marked by the emergence of an energy triangle between Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey, which in turn could impact on the destiny of Nagorno- Karabakh.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Energy Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Turkey, Soviet Union, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

60. Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The historic normalization between Armenia and Turkey has stalled and it is critical to prevent relations from deteriorating further. If Armenia and Turkey eventually succeed in opening their closed border, it will transform the South Caucasus region. But the concerns of Azerbaijan, Turkey's ally and the losing side in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, need to be taken into account. The international community needs to pay more attention to the conflict and work harder to break the regional deadlock it has generated.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan