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172. Argentina — Beleaguered Banks
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of the economic crisis on the Argentine banking sector. The collapse of the peso-dollar peg dealt a serious blow to the already weakened Argentine banking system, which now faces a significant restructuring process.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
173. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis
- Author:
- Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile
174. How Optimal are the Extremes? Latin American Exchange Rate Policies During the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Ricardo Ffrench-Davis and Guillermo Larraín
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real volatility. Mexican float performed well in periods of instability isolating the real sector. The Chilean band delivered a mixed outcome as compared to Argentina and Mexico. This is linked apparently to a loss in the band's credibility, associated to policy mismanagement and an over-appreciation in the biennium before the crisis. Optimal exchange rate regimes vary across time and the conjuncture. Exit strategies are part of the election of the optimal system, including a flexible policy package rather than a single rigid policy tool.
- Topic:
- Development and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
175. Ratings since the Asian Crisis
- Author:
- Helmut Reisen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The increased importance of rating agencies for emerging-market finance has brought their work to the attention of a wider group of observers - and under criticism. This paper evaluates whether the importance of ratings for developing-country finance has changed since the Asian Crisis and whether rating agencies have modified the determinants for their rating decisions. It also provides an analysis on recent suggestions by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, as these are very important for gauging the future role of sovereign ratings for foreign debt finance in developing countries. While the explanatory power of conventional rating determinants has declined since the Asian crisis, recent rating performance for Argentina and Turkey can still be qualified as lagging the markets, as variables of financial-sector strength and the endogenous effects of capital flows on macroeconomic variables seem to remain underemphasized in rating assessments. The market impact of sovereign ratings is predicted to decline as agencies have started to modify their country ceiling policy and as market participants try to exploit bond trading opportunities arising from the lagged nature of ratings. The paper presents theory and evidence to suggest that the Basel II Accord will destabilise private capital flows to the developing countries, if the current proposal to link regulatory bank capital to sovereign ratings is maintained: Assigning fixed minimum capital to bank assets whose risk weights are in turn determined by market-lagging cyclically determined ratings will reinforce the tendency of the capital ratio to work in a pro-cyclical way.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Asia, and Argentina
176. Chile/Argentina — Economic Fallout
- Publication Date:
- 12-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- This week's piece examines the impact of Argentina's economic difficulties on Chilean firms. As well as its macroeconomic impact in Chile, reflected principally in currency volatility and a reduction of capital inflows, the Argentine crisis is affecting Chilean firms with investments in or exports to Argentina. It will also have an impact on Chile's tourist industry. Following the exit of many Chilean firms from Argentina over the last two years, those that remain are either in export sectors or have a long-term strategy under which they appear willing to ride out the present crisis. However, many will sustain short-term losses and some smaller investors, particularly in consumer sectors, may be forced out of the market.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Chile
177. International — IMF Crisis Decisions
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Analytica
- Abstract:
- The IMF's major shareholders have shown little willingness to provide new funds to Argentina. In deferring further assistance, the United States and other G7 shareholders have set limits on the international financial community's role in resolving a major emerging market financial crisis. The slowing global economy could provide an early test of these limits as it exposes weaknesses in other emerging markets — particularly those with larger geopolitical profiles than Argentina. Argentina's predicament highlights the Fund's paradox in wanting, on the one hand, to facilitate orderly resolution of crises (and prevent calamitous social impacts) and, on the other hand, to encourage markets to appropriately price risk by proving that non-optimal outcomes are possible. The risk of such outcomes is the basis upon which investors demand higher premiums from emerging market borrowers.
- Topic:
- International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Argentina
178. Coexistence, Consensus, Competition, Conflict: Interservice Contestation
- Author:
- Varun Sahni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
- Abstract:
- This paper explores one of the lesser-researched aspects of Latin American military politics, namely, relations among the three military services - army, navy and air force. This is done through a study of the Argentine Navy and its relations with the Army and Air Force of that country. The analysis proceeds in three stages. First, the article classifies issue-areas on the basis of four variables: resource and/or prestige implications, symbolic and/or functional importance, zero-sum contestation, and iterative contestations. Second, the article suggests a four-fold typology of inter-service contestation - coexistence, consensus, competition, and conflict - that is closely linked to the nature of the issue-area. Finally, the validity of the typology is tested through the study of four cases: naval management of the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA); naval domination of national policy on Patagonia, Tierra del Fuego, the South Atlantic and Beagle Channel islands and Antarctica; the annual inter-service competition over the military budget; and the long-standing rivalry between the Nave and Air Force over military aviation. The four cases studied demonstrate that the taxonomy proposed in this article more than adequately classifies and explains the patterns of inter-service contestation in Argentina, thereby raising questions about its applicability to other military-dominated polities.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America