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92. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria
93. Debt Relief for Egypt?
- Author:
- John Williamson and Mohsin S. Khan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The current government of Egypt has frequently stated that external financial assistance is necessary in the present economic situation and has expressed a strong preference for receiving it in part via debt relief. The question asked in this policy brief is whether there is a case for debt relief and if so what form this relief should take. This policy brief reviews a number of cases in which debt relief has been granted to draw out the lessons and implications for Egypt.
- Topic:
- Debt, Economics, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt
94. Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A question often asked since the launch of the Arab Spring in January 2011 is what effect will these popular protests have on democracy in the rest of Africa. Frequently overlooked in this discussion is that Sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its own democratic surge during this time with important advances in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, and Zambia, among other countries. This progress builds on nearly two decades of democratic institution building on the continent. Even so, the legacy of “big-man” politics continues to cast a long shadow over Africa's governance norms. Regime models on the continent, moreover, remain highly varied, ranging from hard core autocrats, to semi-authoritarians, democratizers, and a select number of democracies.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Arabia, Nigeria, and Zambia
95. Arab Monarchies: Chance for Reform, Yet Unmet
- Author:
- Marina Ottaway and Marwan Muasher
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Contrary to what ongoing protests across the Middle East and North Africa might imply, monarchs and ruling families in the Arab world still enjoy an extraordinary degree of legitimacy in the eyes of their people. Most citizens of Arab monarchies want to see changes within their ruling governments, not complete regime change. This in turn affords those rulers an opportunity to embark on a path of far-reaching political reform without losing their thrones—all the while gaining acclaim at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
96. From Inspiration to Aspiration: Turkey in the New Middle East
- Author:
- Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- With democratic change struggling to take root in the Arab world even after the fall of several autocratic regimes, the question naturally arises whether Turkey can serve as a model for those who hope to usher the region through the difficult transition to a more democratic order.
- Topic:
- NATO, Democratization, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
97. Challenges of Egypt's Economic Transition
- Author:
- Ibrahim Saif
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian economy is going through a critical period as the country transitions to democracy. While the shift from authoritarianism is certainly welcome, it has inevitably incited instability unknown to Egypt for the past thirty years. The implementation of economic reform amid this uncertainty is particularly challenging as political demands take precedence. The state attempted several times to revive the Egyptian economy since the Infitah, or “open door,” policy initiated by President Anwar Sadat in the mid-1970s. Successive, though unsuccessful, reform programs during the 1990s contributed to the pervasive poverty that served as a central driver of the 2011 Egyptian revolution and persists today. Past experiences can provide useful lessons for what to avoid in the future, even if they are unable to impart what exactly should be done.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt
98. Education for Citizenship in the Arab World: Key to the Future
- Author:
- Marwan Muasher and Muhammad Faour
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Any romantic notions in the West that the 2011 Arab uprisings could create instantaneous democracy in countries that have succeeded at toppling their leaders are already shattering. In the absence of strong political parties and viable civil society structures in most of the Arab world, these uprisings are proving to be only the first step in a process that will not follow a clear path and will take years to unfold. Much trial and error will take place and the region will experience multiple ups and downs before stable political and economic systems take hold.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Education, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
99. Algeria at the Crossroads, Between Continuity and Change
- Author:
- Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Algeria is the only country in North Africa which seems to be relatively immune to the so-called “Arab spring”. Popular protests did erupt in Algeria at precisely the same time as they were enveloping neighbouring countries, but the demands of the protesters never reached a popular consensus calling for the demise of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Drawing on the country's extensive monetary reserves, the Algerian authorities have responded by implementing a series of economic and social reforms, which have further weakened the resolve and unity of the protesters. After repealing the emergency laws in late February 2011, the government appeared to have regained the upper hand, but strikes and demonstrations have continued. Algeria still faces the real prospect of future popular unrest if the government fails in its promise to enact wide ranging political and economic reforms by early 2012. Given the country's geostrategic importance at both regional and international levels, the international community and in particular the EU must do more in order to ensure that Algeria is set on a sustainable path for the future.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa
100. Power to the People? Reactions to the EU's response to the Arab Spring
- Author:
- Jamie Balfour-Paul
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The EU has a long history of co-operation with the Arab region. Its economic and security interests in the region are considerable. In line with the European Consensus on Development, respect for human rights and democracy have been explicit values within EU development policies. Past EU co-operation in the region, especially in health and education, has achieved successes and enabled people to claim certain rights.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Arabia