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182. War In Iraq: What's Next For The Kurds?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Assuming the U.S.-led military operation to topple Saddam Hussein proceeds, the threat is very great of large-scale violence, centred on Kirkuk, erupting in Northern Iraq between Kurds and Turks. If that is to be averted, the United States must urgently take three important steps: get its own forces to Kirkuk first, ensure that Turkey exercises restraint, and simultaneously persuade the Iraqi Kurds to take no action that will risk provoking Turkey.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Turkey, Arabia, and Kirkuk
183. Iraq: Building a New Security Structure
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the foreseeable future, Iraq's security will be in the hands of Coalition forces. As a result, how the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) chose to deal with the country's former military and how it is now going about starting up a new army may not have immediate security implications. But both courses have decisive political implications, and both appear, at a minimum, to have been poorly thought out and recklessly implemented. They heighten the risk that the Sunni population will be further alienated, that the military will be perceived as a prolongation of, rather than a substitute for, the occupation and that, far from helping to forge a new collective national identity, it will become an arena for renewed internal political, sectarian and ethnic conflict. A significant course correction is required in order to lay the foundations for a stable, and stabilising, indigenous security structure.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Sovereignty, and Population
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia
184. Survey: Majority of Israelis and Palestinians Support Peace Proposal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- We conducted a survey on behalf of the International Crisis Group and the Baker Institute to gauge support among Israelis and Palestinians for a proposed peace accord.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
185. A Middle East Roadmap To Where?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia
186. Radical Islam In Iraqi Kurdistan: The Mouse That Roared?
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tucked away in a handful of villages in a remote pocket of Iraqi Kurdistan, a small group of radical Islamist fighters has been accused of being the Kurdish offspring of the al-Qaeda network, and thus has become a fresh target in the international war on terrorism. To compensate for its limited reach and popularity, this group, called Ansar al-Islam (Partisans of Islam), has built on tenuous regional alliances to survive in the harsh mountainous environment above the town of Halabja in northwestern Iraq, just shy of the border with Iran. These alliances have enhanced its role as a minor spoiler in predominantly secular Kurdish politics in the Suleimaniyeh governorate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Arabia, and Kurdistan
187. Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 3 November 2002, an unmanned U.S. “Predator” aircraft hovering in the skies of Yemen fired a Hellfire missile at a car carrying a suspected al- Qaeda leader, four Yemenis said to be members of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, and a Yemeni- American who, according to U.S. authorities, had recruited volunteers to attend al-Qaeda training camps. All six occupants were killed. Almost two months later, three American missionaries were shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Jibla. These incidents, only the latest in a series involving Yemen, reinforced its image as a weak and lawless state with porous borders, a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives, a country with tenuous government control over vast parts of its territory and dominated by a culture of kidnappings and endemic violence. The October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, the arrest earlier in 2002 of several Yemenis in the United States and Pakistan suspected of membership in the al-Qaeda network, the capture of Ramzi bin al-Shibah, a Yemeni citizen accused of being a key plotter of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the U.S., and the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002 have all contributed to this perception. Indeed, during the past year, the U.S. has sent special forces to Yemen and neighbouring countries, with the purpose of pursuing presumed members of the al-Qaeda network and associated organisations in Yemen.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, Yemen, and Arabia
188. Implementing the Roadmap: Assessing the Prospective Monitoring Mechanism
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With last week's formal unveiling of the Roadmap, the Arab-Israeli peace process has moved into a new phase that is its most internationalized in a quarter century. The establishment of the Roadmap's all-important "verification mechanism" -- the structure of which has largely been worked out among the Quartet's U.S., European Union (EU), Russian, and UN representatives -- will give tangible expression to this heightened level of internationalization.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries
189. A Cooperative Structure for Israeli-Palestinian relations
- Author:
- Bjørn Møller
- Publication Date:
- 11-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies
- Abstract:
- In the present paper, a sketch is offered of a possible resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a special view to how the European Union might help bring this about. Consideration is also given to the larger framework of a lasting peace between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia
190. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses
- Author:
- Bruce D. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia