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1032. The Challenge of Political Reform: Jordanian Democratisation and Regional Instability
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Navigating the treacherous shoals of the Iraq conflict with a steady hand, Jordan appears to have emerged unscathed from the turbulent months just past. The Hashemite Kingdom adjusted its rhetoric to fit the public mood while backing U.S. policy in Iraq and in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, managed to overcome its principal weaknesses and now faces the post-war world with renewed confidence and authority.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Demographics, Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Jordan
1033. Iran: Discontent and Disarray
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Shirin Ebadi, a courageous human rights lawyer, has focused renewed attention on the deep divisions and tensions within Iran. How these work out, and how Iran defines its role in the world, will have a critical impact on a range of wider security issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the future of nuclear non-proliferation.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, Development, Economics, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, and Arabia
1034. Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Program
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The announcement on 21 October 2003 of an agreement between Iran on the one hand and Britain, France and Germany on the other, is an important and welcome step in resolving the controversy surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. But it would be wrong to assume that it ends it. The challenge now is to use the breathing space provided by the agreement to tackle the questions – about its implementation, the future of Iran's uranium enrichment activities and Iran's own security concerns – that, for the time being, it has deferred.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Iran, France, Arabia, and Germany
1035. Iraq's Shiites Under Occupation
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The massive car bomb in Najaf on 29 August 2003, which took the lives of over 90 Iraqis, including the prominent cleric Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim, has put renewed focus on the fate of the country's Shiites. The attack comes in the wake of the attempted killing of other prominent clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Saed Al-Tabatab'i al-Hakim, al-Hakim's uncle. Although it is too soon to assign blame, it is not too soon to assess potential consequences: a heightened sense of insecurity; anger, directed both at the former regime and at the current occupiers; intensified intra-Shiite rivalry; and a growing risk of sectarian conflict as militias loyal to different groups vie for control.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Arabia
1036. Governing Iraq
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The horrific bombing of the UN headquarters in Baghdad on 19 August 2003 has focused renewed attention on the question of who, if anyone, is capable of governing Iraq in the current highly volatile environment and, in particular, on what ought to be the respective roles, during the occupation period, of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), the Interim Governing Council and the United Nations. This report proposes a new distribution of authority between the three - potentially acceptable to the United States, the wider international community and the majority of Iraqis - which would enable Iraq's transitional problems, including the critical issue of security, to be much more effectively addressed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Baghdad, and Arabia
1037. The Israeli-Palestinian Roadmap: What a Settlement Freeze Means and Why it Matters
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Settlement expansion in the Palestinian occupied territories is endangering the viability of the Roadmap and, most importantly, of the two-state solution it contemplates and which forms the core of President Bush's stated vision. Freezing settlements is not the Roadmap's only requirement and, to Israelis, may not appear as the central one. But unless action is urgently taken, there is a serious risk that Israeli steps will jeopardise any realistic prospect of a fair and sustainable territorial solution. The seriousness of President Bush and the wider international community about the objective of achieving a two-state solution must be matched by an equal commitment to halting the settlement enterprise that is jeopardising it.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Palestine and Arabia
1038. Hizbollah: Rebel Without A Cause?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Few political actors in the Middle East have seen their environment as thoroughly affected by recent events in the region as Hizbollah, the Lebanese political-military organisation that first came on the scene in the mid-1980s. In U.S. political circles, calls for action against Hizbollah, which is accused of global terrorist activity, are heard increasingly. With the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, the U.S. has upped its pressure on Syria and Iran - Hizbollah's two most powerful patrons. Meanwhile, Israel has made clear it will not tolerate indefinitely the organisation's armed presence on its northern border. Within Lebanon itself, weariness with Hizbollah and questions about its future role are being raised with surprising candour.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
1039. Baghdad: A Race Against the Clock
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Eight weeks after victoriously entering Baghdad, American forces are in a race against the clock. If they are unable to restore both personal security and public services and establish a better rapport with Iraqis before the blistering heat of summer sets in, there is a genuine risk that serious trouble will break out. That would make it difficult for genuine political reforms to take hold, and the political liberation from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship would then become for a majority of the country's citizens a true foreign occupation. With all eyes in the Middle East focused on Iraq, the coming weeks and months will be critical for shaping regional perceptions of the U.S. as well.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Arabia, and Arab Countries
1040. A Middle East Roadmap To Where?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After several false starts, the Middle East diplomatic Quartet (composed of the U.S., the EU, the Russian Federation and the Office of the Secretary General of the UN) finally put its Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace on the table on 30 April 2003. However, although the document has received widespread international endorsement, there is also widespread scepticism about its contents, about the willingness of the parties to implement its provisions and indeed of its sponsors to maintain allegiance to them.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arabia