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311. Whose Fault was the Failure of Camp David?

Author:
Saul Singer
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
It is not often that two articles are enough to shake a powerful pillar of conventional wisdom and trigger an international firestorm. The influence of these articles, "Camp David: The Tragedy of Errors," by Robert Malley and Hussein Agha in the New York Review of Books, and "Quest for Mideast Peace: How and Why it Failed," by Deborah Sontag in the New York Times, cannot be understood simply in terms of their content. Neither contained any particularly astonishing revelations. Rather, these articles seem to have touched a chord that was just waiting to be struck.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
New York, Middle East, and Arab Countries

312. The Phalcon Sale to China: The Lessons for Israel

Author:
Jonathan Adelman
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The Israeli decision, under intense American pressure, to cancel the sale of the Phalcon Airborne Early Warning System to China during the Camp David summit in July 2000 threatens to be a major foreign policy debacle for Israel.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, America, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

313. The Way to Peace Emerged at Madrid: A Decade Since the 1991 Madrid Conference

Author:
Eytan Bentsur
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
The October 1991 Madrid Peace Conference represented a breakthrough in relations between the State of Israel and the Arab world. For the first time, Israel engaged in direct, face-to-face negotiations with all its immediate neighbors, and not just with Egypt, with whom Israel had signed a peace treaty in 1979. These talks were between the political leaders of the region, unlike the armistice discussions that Israel undertook in the late 1940s and 1950s. Madrid also launched a multilateral process that brought Israeli diplomats into contact with representatives of Arab states from North Africa and the Persian Gulf.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, North Africa, Egypt, and Persia

314. Israel's Political Map: After Cancellation of Direct Election of the Prime Minister

Author:
Haim Ramon
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Following the last prime ministerial elections held in Israel in February 2001, the Knesset voted to change the electoral system and restore the former system. Instead of separate ballots for prime minister and for political party, in the next nationwide elections, currently scheduled to take place by the fall of 2003, voters will again be given only one ballot — for political party — and the leader of the party that is able to put together a majority coalition in the Knesset will become prime minister.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

315. From "Occupied Territories" to "Disputed Territories"

Author:
Dore Gold
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
At the heart of the Palestinian diplomatic struggle against Israel is the repeated assertion that the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza Strip are resisting "occupation." Speaking recently on CNN's Larry King Weekend, Hanan Ashrawi hoped that the U.S. war on terrorism would lead to new diplomatic initiatives to address its root "causes." She then went on to specifically identify "the occupation which has gone on too long" as an example of one of terrorism's sources. In other words, according to Ashrawi, the violence of the intifada emanates from the "occupation."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Arab Countries

316. Middle East/Afghanistan — Al-Qaida Threat

Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Intelligence assessments suggest that the bomb attack on French naval engineers in Karachi on May 8 bore the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation. There is evidence to suggest that Osama bin Laden and other senior leaders are alive and regrouping, despite significant losses. The campaign against al-Qaida in Afghanistan and elsewhere is entering a new phase.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

317. Arming Saddam: The Yugoslav Connection

Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The democratic government elected in Belgrade in 2000 did not end the extensive busting of arms sanctions engaged in for many years by its predecessor, the Milosevic dictatorship. The NATO (SFOR) troops who raided an aircraft factory in Bosnia.s Republika Srpska on 12 October 2002 found documents that have begun to strip the veils of secrecy from this significant scandal. From ICG.s own investigations, as well as from those initial revelations and stories that have appeared subsequently in the Serbian press, it appears that arms deals of considerable monetary value continued with Iraq and Liberia despite the change of administrations.
Topic:
Politics and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Iraq, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Arabia, Yugoslavia, Arab Countries, and Liberia

318. Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath

Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This background report reviews the mechanics of Saddam Hussein's rule, looks at the political dynamics that govern relations between religious and ethnic entities, and describes the various opposition groups and their potential role. It does not seek to predict the course of events in Iraq or to argue for any particular course of action. This is the first in a series of reports and briefing papers that ICG intends to issue on the challenges posed by Iraq, including the state of the country more than a decade after the Gulf War; regional attitudes toward a possible U.S. military offensive; the status of Iraqi Kurdistan; and Iran's posture toward a U.S.-led war and Iraq after Saddam Hussein.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

319. Iran: The Struggle for the Revolution's Soul

Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Iran is at a crossroads. More than two decades after the revolution that swept Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into power, its people and leaders are deeply torn about the country's future. The outcome of the struggle for the revolution's soul will resonate across the Middle East and have major implications both strategically and for ongoing efforts to curb violence, including terrorism, in the region. The internal struggle is fluid and unstable. While the notion of a clear-cut battle pitting conservatives against reformers is appealing, it does not do justice to the reality. There are divisions within both camps and connections between them; indeed, some actors may be “conservative” on certain issues and “reformers” on others. Likewise, the idea that Iran's rulers can be dismissed en bloc as obstacles to reform overlooks the genuine differences that exist regarding the proper role of religion, democracy, social norms, economics and foreign policy. The complexity of Iran's domestic situation makes it all the more difficult – but also imperative – for the international community to exercise caution, properly fine-tune its actions and anticipate their impact.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

320. Enhancing the Turkish-American Alliance: The Campaign for Iraq and Other Possibilities

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones was in Ankara Monday to discuss foreign policy issues including Iraq with her Turkish counterparts. Interestingly, Iraq's vice premier Tariq Aziz visited Ankara yesterday for the same purpose. These trips come at a crucial time as Washington prepares for a confrontation with Saddam Husayn. While prepared to stand with its close NATO ally the United States, Turkey remains uneasy about several issues.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries