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71. Palestinian Reconciliation: Plus ÇA Change...

Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Hamas and Fatah surprised all with their announcement of a reconciliation accord. What had been delayed since Hamas took over Gaza in 2007 and Palestinian Authority (PA) President Abbas asked Salam Fayyad to form a government in the West Bank was done in Cairo in hours. Shock was matched by uncertainty over what had been agreed and the course it would take. Would the factions produce a national strategy and unify fractured institutions? Or would the agreement codify the status quo? Even some of the more pessimistic scenarios were optimistic. Reconciliation stumbled at its first hurdle, naming a prime minister – though that is not the only divisive issue. Neither side wants to admit failure, so the accord is more likely to be frozen than renounced, leaving the door slightly ajar for movement. Palestinian parties but also the U.S. and Europe need to recognise that reconciliation is necessary to both minimise the risk of Israeli-Palestinian violence and help produce a leader- ship able to reach and implement peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arab Countries

72. The Gulf States and Syria

Author:
Emile Hokayem
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The unrest in Syria offers the Gulf States an opportunity to weaken or even dislodge an Assad regime aligned with Iran, but their ability to project power or shape events in Syria is limited. Dislike of the Assad regime doesn't necessarily align Gulf interests and long-term vision for Syria. Moreover, cooperation on diplomacy and strategy is lacking. Sectarianism, most evidenced in media commentary and clerical statements, is already a major feature of Gulf discourse on Syria. Parts of the Syrian opposition have approached and have been courted by Gulf governments. Still, a degree of unease and mistrust continues to define their relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Syria

73. Watching from the Sidelines: Israel and the Syrian Uprising

Author:
Ehud Eiran
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Israel has been generally quiet regarding the recent turmoil in Syria, a reflection of the issue\'s relative low priority, as well as Israel\'s limited influence on internal Syrian matters. Israel\'s preferred outcome would be a stable Syrian regime that disassociates itself from the “axis of resistance,” poses no bilateral threats, and controls the border area—though Israel sees no clear path for achieving these aims. The view in Israel is that the basic structure of deterrence still holds vis-à-vis Syria and the regime—even in its desperate circumstances—is unlikely to provoke Israel in dramatic ways.
Topic:
Security and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria

74. Uncharted Waters: Thinking Through Syria's Dynamics

Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis may or may not have entered its final phase, but it undoubtedly has entered its most dangerous one to date. The current stage is defined by an explosive mix of heightened strategic stakes tying into a regional and wider international competition on the one hand and emotionally charged attitudes, communal polarisation and political wishful thinking on the other. As dynamics in both Syria and the broader international arena turn squarely against the regime, reactions are ranging from hysterical defiance on the part of its supporters, optimism among protesters that a bloody stalemate finally might end and fears of sectarian retribution or even civil war shared by many, through to triumphalism among those who view the crisis as an historic opportunity to decisively tilt the regional balance of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Arab Countries, and Syria

75. Debt Relief for Egypt?

Author:
John Williamson and Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The current government of Egypt has frequently stated that external financial assistance is necessary in the present economic situation and has expressed a strong preference for receiving it in part via debt relief. The question asked in this policy brief is whether there is a case for debt relief and if so what form this relief should take. This policy brief reviews a number of cases in which debt relief has been granted to draw out the lessons and implications for Egypt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Arabia, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Egypt

76. The 'right' Mobility Partnership between the European Union, Morocco and Tunisia

Author:
Anne Sofie Westh Olsen
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The Mobility Partnerships between the EU and third countries do not primarily focus on migrants' rights. This is an attempt to show what the partnerships with Morocco and Tunisia should look like from a migrant's perspective.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Europe, Arab Countries, North Africa, and Tunisia

77. Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (I): Egypt Victorious?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is early days, and the true measure of what the Egyptian people have accomplished has yet to fully sink in. Some achievements are as clear as they are stunning. Over a period of less than three weeks, they challenged conventional chestnuts about Arab lethargy; transformed national politics; opened up the political space to new actors; massively reinforced protests throughout the region; and called into question fundamental pillars of the Middle East order. They did this without foreign help and, indeed, with much of the world timidly watching and waffling according to shifting daily predictions of their allies' fortunes. The challenge now is to translate street activism into inclusive, democratic institutional politics so that a popular protest that culminated in a military coup does not end there. The backdrop to the uprising has a familiar ring. Egypt suffered from decades of authoritarian rule, a lifeless political environment virtually monopolised by the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP); widespread corruption, cronyism and glaring inequities; and a pattern of abuse at the hands of unaccountable security forces. For years, agitation against the regime spread and, without any credible mechanism to express or channel public discontent, increasingly took the shape of protest movements and labour unrest.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

78. Social Media in the Arab World: Leading up to the Uprisings of 2011

Author:
Jeffrey Ghannam
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
This paper was commissioned and largely reported in the period leading up to the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, and elsewhere in the region in early 2011. It is published as a stage-setter for the events that are rapidly unfolding in the Arab world.
Topic:
Democratization, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Arabia, Arab Countries, Egypt, and Tunisia

79. Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, at the close of the 1991 Gulf War, the imposition of a UN-mandated no-fly zone contributed to the formation of a safe haven for Iraqi Kurds, resulting in the liberation of nearly three million people from Baathist dictatorship a full decade before the rest of Iraq. In 1992, new UN-mandated no-fly and no-drive zones were established in southern Iraq and the Balkans to contain rogue regimes and protect civilians from government repression. Given the current developments in Libya, it is natural to consider employing such options once again. Yet history shows that exclusion zones are particularly tricky operations. If not configured properly, they can be worse than useless, signaling fecklessness instead of resolve while providing little real protective value to civilians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, United Nations, Balkans, and North Africa

80. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa