The rise of emerging countries, above all the precipitous rise of China, is a key driving force behind changes in international relations on a global scope. This does not mean, however, that China is taking over the reins of “hegemony” from the US and building a new international order centered on China and other emerging countries, i.e., that a clear-cut “power transition” is underway.
With President Obama’s second term coming to an end, 2016 will mark a major turning point for US politics and foreign policy. Republican majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate since the 2014 mid-term elections have made the Obama administration a “lame duck” but, with no concerns about re-election, the administration is now using its “free hand” to issue executive orders and exercise presidential authority for the sake of “legacy building” through, say, revisions to the Immigration Act and normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba.
Two of the most important variables influencing trends within the international order are the domestic circumstances within the US and China and the foreign policy shifts stemming therefrom. An element of equal or perhaps even greater significance is the nature of relations between these two major powers.
The 2016 electoral campaign outcome came like a complete bolt out of the blue for the American establishment, including the ruling elites, as well as academics, journalists, and other groups safeguarding the elites’ interests. Ironically, the showy campaign and the scandalous behavior of US billionaire and TV star Donald Trump, now 45th President-elect, overshadowed the fact that such a candidate per se exposed a deep systemic crisis in American society. Both the general public and professionals had overlooked the phenomenon. The crisis is caused by the exhausted potential of the US political and socio-economic system, which took shape in the 1960s and is over 50 years old. That is why the problems that the campaign laid bare will not merely fade away after the elections.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Affairs, and Elections
In the recent months the US-Russian relations have been in this weird place where Russia suddenly emerged again as a topic of a heated and very controversial electoral campaign and again in a form of an Evil Empire. The relations have been strained since 2014 following the events in Crimea, Ukraine and the sanctions rounds even though the same two countries managed to cooperate around Iran, and were rubbing shoulders in Syria. The recent storm has been caused by the leakage of the Democratic party emails, allegedly done by Moscow with the end goal to undermine Hillary Clinton (who is holding firm anti-Russian position) and support Donald Trump (who has praised Vladimir Putin in the past). With the elections taking place this week, Rethinking Russia spoke to an influential Republican geostrategist, CSIS senior associate Edward Luttwak about the current state of the Russian-American elections.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
Beware of rapid improvement in US-Russian relations. It cannot be sustained, and it always ends in sorrow for both countries. That at least is the history of relations since the end of the Cold War, to which each American president – Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – can attest.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
The 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential elections were held on November 8, 2016. Republican Donald Trump won the White House. Following the elections, «Rethinking Russia» think-tank has collected a set of comments by Russian and foreign experts.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, and International Affairs
As the world comes to terms with the knowledge that Donald Trump will soon be handed the keys to the White House, Moldovans are preparing to vote in a runoff presidential election which will set their country either on a firmly pro-Western course or on the path toward better relations with Russia.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
American political leaders have supported the “special relationship” between the US and Israel since the earliest days of Israel’s existence. Support for Israel is invariably invoked during presidential campaigns and in party platforms. During their terms in office, US presidents regularly address issues relating to Israel and assert their commitment to Israel’s security.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
Carlos Gutierrez, Ernesto Zedillo, and Michael Clemens
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Mexico and the United States have lacked a bilateral agreement to regulate cross-border labor mobility since 1965. Since that time, unlawful migration from Mexico to the US has exploded. Almost half of the 11.7 million Mexican-born individuals living in the U.S. do not have legal authorization. This vast black market in labor has harmed both countries. These two neighboring countries, with an indisputably shared destiny, can come together to work out a better way.
The time has come for a lasting, innovative, and cooperative solution. To address this challenge, the Center for Global Development assembled a group of leaders from both countries and with diverse political affiliations—from backgrounds in national security, labor unions, law, economics, business, and diplomacy—to recommend how to move forward. The result is a new blueprint for a bilateral agreement that is designed to end unlawful migration, promote the interests of U.S. and Mexican workers, and uphold the rule of law.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Affairs, Labor Issues, and Border Control