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1. How Tanzania Can Secure a Good Deal for its Offshore Gas

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Manley
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
The Tanzanian government and a consortium of companies are negotiating the regulatory terms for a game-changing liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. In this brief, the authors update a previous analysis of some of the key decisions that will be made in the negotiation and their potential impact on whether the LNG project proceeds and the levels of revenues that the project could generate for the government. This update accounts for new information and changes in company planning. There is a reasonable chance that foreign investment in the LNG project will not happen under current conditions. NRGI’s economic model and specific assumptions of the project suggest that a long-term LNG price of USD 11 per mmBtu is needed for investors to earn the return they usually require from LNG projects. Current forecasts by the IMF and World Bank are $7-8 per mmBtu. As the authors discuss in the brief, the chances of investment will shrink further if, during the negotiations, the government increases taxes and requires companies to share a greater portion of the gas with Tanzania’s home market. Government officials could wait and hope that conditions improve, and perhaps then impose stricter terms. However, this would delay the point at which the country would start generating benefits from the project. If officials want to accelerate development, without harming long-term gains for the country, they could: adopt a more progressive tax regime, avoid raising the share of gas to be sold to the home market, and establish a legal framework that both company managers and future generations of Tanzanians will trust.
Topic:
Gas, Regulation, Legislation, Tax Systems, Commodities, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

2. The Sales Tax Proposal: Are We Beating a Dead Horse? Preliminary results from a rapid assessment

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Florence Banda-Muleya
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The fiscal authorities have argued that the horse – in this case, (value-added tax) VAT – is dead. In contrast, this rapid assessment argues that the VAT may have been pronounced dead too quickly, perhaps for expediency’s sake. Examples from many countries abound and show that with the right fiscal discipline to ring-fence VAT refunds and improve compliance, VAT works just fine, offering value-added incentives and avoiding cascading effects. In finding a solution for this supposedly dead horse, important questions that we need to ask are “Is the horse really dead? If it is, what killed the horse?” Without this introspection, the other horse in form of Sales Tax, which in fact died and was buried 25 years ago, might be resurrected. Without learning from previous experiences and experiences elsewhere, we are bound to make the same mistakes in trying to resuscitate a truly dead horse.
Topic:
Government, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

3. Electricity provision and tax mobilization in Africa

Author:
Moussa Blimpo, Justice Tei Mensah, K. Ochieng’ Opalo, and Ruifan Shi
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In this paper, we provide evidence on how the provision of social infrastructure such as reliable electricity can be leveraged to increase taxation in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). First, using comprehensive data from the latest round of the Afrobarometer survey, we estimate, via the instrumental variable approach, the effect of access and reliability of electricity on tax compliance attitudes of citizens in 36 SSA countries. Evidence from the paper shows a significant positive effect of electrification on tax compliance attitudes with potentially strong externalities. Also, we find that reliability of supply is crucial in explaining the impact of electricity access on attitudes toward taxes. Second, we provide suggestive evidence on national identity as one channel driving this impact. Access to social amenities such as electricity induces a sense of national identity among citizens, thereby incentivizing them to contribute, through taxes, toward the functioning of the state.
Topic:
Nationalism, Identities, Tax Systems, and Electricity
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

4. Rental Taxation: Curbing Non-Compliance and Improving Administration

Author:
Florence B. Muleya, Shebo Nalishebo, Malindi Msoni, Mukuka Mulenga, Evaristo Mwale, and Yenda Shamabobo
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Since 2013, the Zambian economy has grappled with a high fiscal deficit. Many stakeholders continue to implore the Government to take measures to ensure that the tax base is broadened, voluntary compliance improved and domestic resource mobilisation enhanced to reduce the deficit. Consequently, there has been a call on the tax administration authority to rethink its tax collection strategies and bring more individuals and firms into the tax net. Recently, the Government reiterated its commitment to enhance resource mobilisation in the 2019 Budget Speech. Improved administration of taxation in the housing sector, particularly rental properties, offers a promise as one of the options to increase tax revenues especially if more tax payers are captured under this tax net. However, the administration of individual rental income tax faces many challenges.
Topic:
Economy, Tax Systems, and Rent
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

5. Uncovering the Unknown: An Analysis of Tax Evasion in Zambia 2014

Author:
Shebo Nalishebo and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The Government of the Republic of Zambia, like many other governments in the world, significantly relies on tax revenue to finance both its key infrastructure development and social services. Zambia’s tax revenue declined from 30% of GDP in the 1970s to only an average of 13% of GDP in the 1990s mainly due to the decline in mining revenue and weak tax administration. To address this decline, significant tax reforms were undertaken that included the creation of the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA). Despite these reforms, tax revenue collection has to a large extent been unsatisfactory, recording average tax revenue-to-GDP of 17% in the last five years. This study investigates the extent and causes of tax evasion in Zambia including the review of the current legal and administrative measures used by the ZRA in addressing this problem. To investigate tax evasion in Zambia, several methodologies or approaches are used. These include carrying out a qualitative survey on a small sample of large taxpayers to find out their perceptions on the causes of tax evasion in Zambia. In investigating the extent of tax evasion, the tax gap with respect to Pay-As-You-Earn (PAYE) personal income tax of the self-employed and paid employees is estimated using data from the nationally representative 2010 Living Conditions and Monitoring Survey (LCMS). Further, a comparative assessment of Zambia‘s tax revenue performance relative to countries in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is undertaken. The study also reviews the current legal and administrative measures used to address tax evasion.
Topic:
Government, Tax Systems, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

6. What do the COMESA Customs Union and COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Area mean for Zambia’s import trade and trade tax revenue?

Author:
Caesar Cheelo, Njeleka Malata, and Joseph Tembo
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia has participated actively in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) regional integration programmes. Within SADC it is now reportedly a full participant in the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA), granting duty-free and quota-free access to goods originating from the SADC region. It is also a founding participant in the COMESA FTA and is now looking ahead to participate in the establishment of the COMESA Customs Union. The country is also committed to participate in the recently announced Tripartite FTA, which will establish a free trade area and then eventually a customs union, consolidating the regional economic communities of COMESA, SADC, and the East African Community (EAC). Quite often the actual or potential short-term or transitional impacts of the tariff reforms associated with regional integration are not well known. This is the case with respect to Zambia’s commitments to further integration under the forthcoming COMESA Customs Union and Tripartite FTA. ZIPAR therefore undertook a study to assess the potential effects for Zambia of the forthcoming trade reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. The study made two starting-point observations: on the one hand, the Tripartite FTA is expected to consolidate the internal markets of the three regional economic communities and facilitate duty- and quota-free trade within the common market, subject to rules of origin. This means the Tripartite FTA will define Zambia’s internal trade policy position with other member states. On the other hand, the COMESA Customs Union, with its Common Tariff Nomenclature, Common External Tariff structure and common Customs Management Regulations, will define Zambia and other COMESA Member States’ common external trade policy position. Given Zambia’s ratification of these trade arrangements, it is important for policy-makers to understand the significance of the trade policy reforms implied in both the COMESA Customs Union and the Tripartite FTA. This paper therefore seeks to determine the implications for Zambia of the trade reforms that the country will undertake. It applies the following methods of ex-ante analysis: (1) Import trade and tariff profiling using simple descriptive statistical analysis of trade for the period 2000-2010 and of tariff structures in 2010; (2) Analysis of required trade policy reforms; and (3) Analysis of revenue implications and economic effects using the World Bank’s Tariff Reform Impact Simulation Tool (TRIST). Trade and customs data as well as other data were obtained from authentic national and international sources including the Zambia Revenue Authority, COMESA Secretariat, Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance, World Trade Organisation and World Bank, among others. The paper’s reference period is 2010.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Economy, Tax Systems, Free Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia