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1. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:
Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:
Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

2. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

3. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions

Author:
Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

4. The Congolese Fight for Their Own Wealth

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The DRC’s vast mineral wealth contrasts with its extreme poverty, caused by exploitation and conflict. The dossier emphasises sovereignty and dignity, echoing Congolese activists’ visions for freedom.
Topic:
Poverty, Sovereignty, Conflict, Minerals, Exploitation, and Activism
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

5. A Critical Study of the Role of Zakat in Social Protection in Sudan from 1980 to 2021

Author:
Medani Abbas Medani
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Sudan suffers from a high percentage of its total population, more than 65%, living in poverty. This percentage is affected by poor economic growth, the spread of civil conflicts and the resulting migration and destruction, and loss of livelihoods.1 With such a high incidence of poverty, social protection networks do not cover large segments of the Sudanese population. Since the early 1990s, Sudan has embarked on economic reform programs that include the removal of subsidies on basic, government-subsidized commodities such as bread and fuel. As is well known, the implementation of these policies requires effective social protection networks to minimize the effects of these policies on the poor, which is not an easy task in a low-income country where there are already serious questions about the government’s ability to develop an effective social protection system. In light of limited government resources and a large security and military budget, especially during the period of al-Bashir’s rule from 1989 to 2019, the government’s ability to allocate resources to support social protection programs has been weak. This means that the Zakat Chamber is considered the main provider of social protection interventions in Sudan. It targets poor and vulnerable segments, as Zakat resources represent about 87% of the total interventions of government social protection networks (excluding government support).2 This study starts from the premise that Zakat can be an effective tool in financing and implementing social protection programs, as well as social protection institutions in Sudan, if properly managed. As such, the paper traces the historical development of the Zakat system in Sudan and the impact of the ruling regimes on Zakat’s roles in the social protection system. The study also examines the impact of the Bashir regime (1989-2019) on the Zakat system from the perspective of economic and political empowerment, and the extent of the regime’s impact on Zakat’s ability to strengthen social protection networks in Sudan. The nature of the political system plays a role in determining the frameworks of the Zakat system: the Zakat Chamber law authorizes it to disburse Zakat under the discretionary authority of the ruler as the original authority. In other words, the ruler’s discretion affects the distribution of Zakat resources to projects.3 The study examines the period of Omar al-Bashir’s regime, which lasted from 1989 to 2019. The study then deals with the period following the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood rule in the transitional period from 2019-2021, and proceeds to shed light on the role of the Zakat Chamber after the outbreak of the Sudanese war on 15 April 2023. The study concludes with the positives and challenges facing the role of Zakat in social protection in Sudan. It also provides recommendations aimed at reviewing the program, which, despite its expansion, is accompanied by issues in terms of its use in collecting and providing resources that are not subject to appropriate exchange and institutional controls and as a tool affected by the nature of the ruling political regime and its priorities, which may contradict the goals of Zakat and social protection. The importance of addressing the relationship between Zakat and social protection in Sudan lies in the fact that Zakat is categorized as one of the most important social protection resources. Zakat, for much of the period under study, was a compulsory religious tax, a fact that goes against the principles of Islamic countries in dealing with the Zakat obligation. The link between Zakat and social protection needs a careful approach that separates the roles that Zakat can play in social protection. Zakat is not just a charitable act and can have macroeconomic effects, falling into the trap of being used as an easy tax resource by which governments evade their roles in developing and institutionalizing social protection. This paper attempts, through the experience in Sudan, to contribute to the development of the debate and experience on the roles of Zakat in social protection.
Topic:
Poverty, Social Protection, and Zakat
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

6. Tax financing options for new social protection instruments: The equity implications of taxing more to expand the South African social security system

Author:
Maya Goldman and Ntuthuko Hlela
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. We assess three methods to enhance the social protection system’s equity objectives: increasing the size and/or coverage of the existing Social Relief of Distress grant and introducing a universal or working-age basic income grant. The implications of financing these reforms are examined using four tax instruments: increasing the value-added tax rate, increasing personal income tax rates, reducing the personal income tax primary annual rebate, and introducing a surcharge on incomes. While we discuss behavioural effects, they are not included in the model. Our analysis indicates that an expansion of the social security system financed through increased taxation could substantially reduce poverty and inequality to varying degrees depending on the taxes and transfers used.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Social Spending, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

7. Left Behind or Forgotten? The Case of Children With Disabilities: A Multidimensional Poverty Approach

Author:
Khaufelo R. Lekobane and Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognises the importance of multidimensional poverty and disability. Using the 2015/16 Botswana multi-topic household survey, this policy brief examined the link between childhood disability and multidimensional child poverty in Botswana¹. We employed the conceptual framing of the Leaving No One Behind principle, capability and human rights-based approaches to define multidimensional child poverty and child disability. The following are key highlights of this policy brief. Children with disabilities are particularly deprived of basic capabilities (education and health). On average, children with disabilities, as a group, experience multiple deprivations at higher rates and in higher breath, depth, and severity than children with no disabilities. Children with disabilities have higher multidimensional poverty levels than their nondisabled peers across demographic, economic, and geographical divides. Multidimensional child poverty levels vary across the type of functional disabilities and across the number of functional disabilities experienced by children.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, Children, Disability, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

8. Factors Influencing the Probability of Being Left Behind: A Multidimensional Poverty Approach for Botswana

Author:
Khaufelo R. Lekobane
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The Leave No One Behind principle is an important dimension of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It recognises data disaggregation as a vital tool to identify the multidimensionally poor (those left behind). Using the 2015/16 Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey, we investigate factors influencing the probability of being left behind. We define those left behind as the multidimensionally poor. We employed the multidimensional poverty measure to identify those left behind. Our study uses several econometric estimation techniques, such as Tobit, quantile regression and OLS regression models, in addition to the binary logit model commonly used in the empirical literature. The results reveal that an individual’s age, disability status, citizenship, sex of household head, marital status, education, employment status of household head, household wealth status and place of residence are significant factors influencing the probability of being left behind (multidimensionally poor). Policymakers should design context-specific, action-oriented and nationally appropriate policies and programmes that consider factors influencing the probability of being left behind and promote sustainable and inclusive development.
Topic:
Poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, and Regression Analysis
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

9. Climate change adaptation relevance of Tanzania’s national budget

Author:
Noah Pauline, Peter Rogers, Edmund Mabhuye, Beatrice Sumari, Lucas Katera, Jamal Msami, Per Tidemand, and Esbern Friis-Hansen
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In Tanzania, climate change adaptation is financed by international development assistance and by nationally generated revenue. While international development assistance is registered by OECD and climate change adaptation relevance tagged by donors, the proportion of the nationally generated revenue that is climate change adaptation relevant is unknown. This DIIS Working Paper analyses the climate change adaptation relevance of the national budget (from 2014 to 2022), using the same methodology applied in a previous study (Yanda et al., 2013). The study further assesses the degree to which climate change adaptation financed is devolved to local government. The study finds that a disproportionately high proportion of climate adaptation finance is used at central government levels due to priorities being established at the ministry level. Moreover, the study finds that local governments lack discretion over climate change adaptation finance due to the country’s highly centralised policies, practices and procedures. Qualitative fieldwork indicates that nearly all climate change adaptation finance accessed by local governments comes with a central government tag (directive) on how to use it.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Budget, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

10. Inclusion and exclusion in Somali drought emergency assistance

Author:
Ahmed Musa
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
When drought or other emergencies strike in the Somali regions, the first responders are Somalis themselves, not the international humanitarian system. Based on family, kinship and more distant social ties, Somalis mobilise and deliver various forms of emergency assistance to the affected communities. Yet, mechanisms of inclusion and exclusion vary significantly, pending on the closeness of social ties, the power relations between local and international actors, and the number and forms of intermediaries. In this new DIIS Working Paper, Ahmed M. Musa, examines such local and transnational humanitarian practices and the mechanisms of inclusion and inclusion that they entail. Focusing on instances of drought in Somaliland, Musa argues that emergency assistance based on close social ties observes the overall humanitarian principle of impartiality. There are challenges, however, particularly when the social ties are more distant, as in the case of government-led or international responses. This may be mitigated, Musa shows, by the social contract of reciprocity between givers and recipients of assistance, going hand in hand with social sanctions where people abstain from helping those in need. Familiarity is thus central for impartial and inclusive access to emergency assistance, rather than an obstacle. The paper is an output from the Diaspora Humanitarianism in Complex Crises (D-Hum) research project in which Musa was a postdoc between 2020 and 2022. D-Hum analyses how Somali diaspora actors and their local counterparts mobilise, channel and deliver humanitarian assistance to Somalia and Somaliland during complex humanitarian crises. The project is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research (FFU). Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LinkedInSend link to page with mailPrint page
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Migration, Poverty, Natural Resources, Inequality, Conflict, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia