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1. An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda

Author:
Ashleigh Landau and Ashleigh Landau
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
An Uncertain Future: Preventing Mass Atrocities in Uganda explains the factors behind three high-risk scenarios, identifies potential triggering events that could lead to violence against civilians, and proposes recommendations for how to mitigate the risk. In studying genocide and mass atrocities, we have learned that they are never spontaneous. They are always preceded by a range of early warning signs. If these signs are detected, their causes can be addressed, preventing the potential for catastrophic progression. This report is one of the components of the Early Warning Project, which includes both quantitative and qualitative assessments of atrocity risk. It is the sixth in a series of deep-dive qualitative assessments designed to assist policymakers, NGOs, and members of civil society in understanding the atrocity dynamics particular to the country in question and recommending preventative actions.
Topic:
Genocide, Atrocity Prevention, Early Warning, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

2. Burkina Faso’s Prolonged Transition: Failed Promises and Governance Shortcomings

Author:
Emmanuel Yeboah
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:
July 2024 was expected to mark the end of Burkina Faso's transion back to civilian rule, with a presidenal elecon intended to restore constuonal order aer two years of polical uncertainty. However, as many had ancipated, worsening security situaon, coupled with other challenges would become a pretext for the junta to consolidate its hold on power. On September 29, 2023, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the junta leader, declared that the scheduled elecons in July 2024 were “not a priority,” and that the constuon would be modified, casng doubt on the prospects for a mely democrac transion. On May 25, 2024, the military government stunned many democracy watchers by announcing an extension of their rule unl 2029, following what they termed a "naonal conference." This decision, however, was met with widespread skepcism, as the dialogue was largely boycoed by civil society, polical pares, and other key stakeholders. The announcement dealt a severe blow to hopes for a democrac transion, reinforcing fears that the junta intended to hold onto power indefinitely. Adding to the sense of stagnaon, the junta celebrates its two-year anniversary on September 29, 2024. This study builds upon a previous report to provide a comprehensive update and evaluaon of Burkina Faso's ongoing transion process. It offers a detailed analysis of the challenges faced by the transion, providing crical insights into the effecveness of military governments in addressing governance issues and their impact on the country's stability and development. The study further contributes to the broader discourse on the path to restoring democrac order in Burkina Faso.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Geopolitics, Democratic Transitions, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso