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21. Will Debt Relief Make a Difference? Impact and Expectations of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

Author:
Todd Moss
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) is the latest phase of debt reduction for poor countries from the World Bank, the IMF, and the African Development Bank. The MDRI, which will come close to full debt reduction for at least 19 (and perhaps as many as 40) qualifying countries, is being presented as a momentous leap forward in the battle against global poverty. However, the analysis in this paper suggests that the actual gains may be more modest and elusive. This is not because, as some anti-debt campaigners fear, that the initiative is a mere accounting trick. Rather, the limited short-term financial impact of the MDRI on affected countries is because the debt service obligations being relived were themselves relatively insignificant. For example, in 2004 the average African country in the program paid $19 million in debt service to the World Bank, but received 10 times that amount in new Bank credit and more than 50 times as much in total aid. Just as importantly, finances are rarely the binding constraint on poverty and other development outcomes. This is not to say that the MDRI is futile. Indeed the impact could be considerable over the long-term, especially on the ability of creditors to be more selective in the future. But most of the impact of the MDRI will be long-term and difficult to measure. As such, expectations of the effect on indebted countries and development indicators should be kept modest and time horizons long.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

22. Can NEPAD succeed without prior reform?

Author:
Ian Taylor
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The New Partnership for Africa's Development or Nepad has been enthusiastically pushed by a select number of countries in Africa, as well as by the G-8, as a means to stimulate what has been termed the "African Renaissance" (see www.uneca.org/nepad/nepad.pdf). Nepad was launched in Abuja, Nigeria, in October 2001; it arose from the mandate granted to five African heads of state (Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa) by the then Organization of African Unity (OAU) to work out a development program to spearhead Africa's renewal.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, Senegal, and Nigeria

23. The Characteristics of Macroeconomic Shocks in the CFA Franc Zone

Author:
David Fielding, Kevin Lee, and Kalvinder Shields
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we fit a VECM in output and prices to data from ten countries of the CFA Franc Zone. This model allows for various cross-country interactions in both the short run and the long run. The VECM parameters are used to estimate persistence profiles of different kinds, in order to identify the degree of homogeneity in the way in which the countries respond to macroeconomic shocks. In this way we can shed light on questions about the likely size of the costs incurred from these countries' membership of a monetary union.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

24. Monetary Policy in the Franc Zone: Estimating Interest Rate Rules for the BCEAO

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines to what extent the central bank for the West African Economic and Monetary Union (BCEAO) has used interest rate policy in response to domestic economic developments. We show that while in the long run the BCEAO matches changes in French (Eurozone) interest rates one for one, in the short run it retains freedom to react to domestic economic variables, such as inflation, the output gap, its foreign exchange position and government borrowing.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, France, and West Africa

25. Poverty and Growth in the WAEMU after the 1994 Devaluation

Author:
Jean-Paul Azam
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper brings out that poverty increased massively in the wake of the 1994 devaluation of the CFA franc, despite a significant recovery of economic growth. Although this increase affected all the social groups, it fell mostly on the urban poor. An analytical model is presented, which explains this puzzle by the stratification of the labour market, assuming that the formal sector workers are at the same time the investors in the informal sector. Then, capital intensity in the latter increases as the former anticipate the cut in formal sector wages that the long-awaited devaluation brings about. Ex post, they run down their assets for consumption-smoothing purposes, thus de-capitalizing the informal sector firms, with a negative impact on incomes in the (urban) informal sector.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

26. The Impact of Monetary Union on Macroeconomic Integration: Evidence from West Africa

Author:
David Fielding and Kalvinder Shields
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we use data from 17 African nations in order to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union – represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone – augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers a number of dimensions of integration including the volume of bilateral trade, real exchange rate volatility and the magnitude of cross-country business cycle correlation.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

27. Monetary Policy in the CFA Zone: Country-level Credit Policy

Author:
Anja Shortland and David Stasavage
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines whether the BCEAO has made use of the various policy instruments at its disposal for steering credit in the individual CFA zone member countries to complement interest rate policy at the zone level. We estimate whether private sector credit has responded systematically to different monetary policy variables using iterated 3-stage least squares regressions for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal and Togo. If we constrain the coefficient estimates there is some support for the hypothesis that the BCEAO has contracted private sector credit in response to a higher inflation differential with France. However, there seems to be no policy rule to restrict private sector credit in response to increasing government borrowing from the central bank or increased foreign borrowing. If the coefficient estimates are unconstrained, there does not appear to be any systematic policy to control credit expansion at the domestic level.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and France

28. The Costs and Benefits Analysis of CFA Membership: The Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime for the CFA Countries Zone

Author:
Mireille Linjouom
Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper determines an analytical framework defining the choice of an optimal exchange rate regime for a typical CFA country. The policymakers behave strategically to decide to adopt alternative exchange rate regime by minimizing their loss function under specific constraints like economic characteristics and political consideration. One concludes a CFA economy with less inflationary propensity and greater external shocks volatility will tend to select a flexible exchange rate regime. Moreover, the model suggests that a CFA country with a more unstable political system and a higher propensity to apply inflationary policies will prefer a flexible arrangement than a fixed one.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa

29. Dialogue of Civilisations? The Case of Nepad

Author:
Henri Vogt
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper has two parallel aims. First of all, it seeks to present and critically discuss some central aspects of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) initiative. A programme of the African Union and officially launched in October 2001, NEPAD is a comprehensive, ambitious framework for changing the negative course of development in Africa and for ending the increasing marginalisation of the continent in the global era. In the words of its founding document, 'the Programme is anchored on the determination of Africans to extricate themselves and the continent from the malaise of underdevelopment and exclusion in a globalising world' (§1).
Topic:
Development, Government, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

30. Survey of SSR Regional and Sub-Regional Networks

Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
Abstract:
The enclosed survey was conducted in order to map all regional and sub regional networks working in the field of Security Sector Reform (SSR) in Africa, Asia, Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean. The objective of mapping SSR networks in these regions is multi-fold. Firstly it is imperative that at a time when security has taken a truly global dimension and span, academics and practitioners alike are aware of the state of SSR in different regions. Certain similarities and patterns emerge during the analysis that offer lessons and directions for actors wishing to become involved in SSR in a particular region, or searching for guidance in applying best practices and lessons learned to particular situations. Secondly, exchange of experience and ideas is especially important in supporting South-South dialogue, but the value of cooperation cannot be overemphasized given the often-unclear context in which SSR activities take place. The mapping exercise serves as an entry-point for practitioners to identify existing networks and their areas of expertise. Opportunities for collaboration are made possible by identifying other organisations that are pursuing similar goals. Additionally, the map of SSR networks serves to identify possible gaps in scope of activity and highlights entry points for other organisations and networks to further the objectives of security sector management and reform. Lastly, this exercise will serve as a vehicle for the GFN-SSR to develop ways to strengthen its activities. One way in which the GFN-SSR is already adding value is through the development of its website, which, inter alia, offers a newsletter in four languages, i.e., English, French, Spanish and Portuguese. An activity to reinforce the access to information for those in areas of poor connectivity is already being developed through the conception of a CD-ROM containing all the existing website information for distribution on a timely basis to interested organisations.
Topic:
Security, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa, America, Europe, Asia, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean