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1. Heat and Hate: Climate Security and Farmer-Herder Conflicts in Africa

Author:
Ulrich J. Eberle, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of climate shocks on violence between herders and farmers by using geolocalized data on conflict events for all African countries over the 1997-2014 period. We find that a +1℃ increase in temperature leads to a +54% increase in conflict probability in mixed areas populated by both farmers and herders, compared to +17% increase in non-mixed areas. This result is robust to controlling for the interaction between temperature and ethnic polarization, alternative estimation techniques, disaggregation levels, and coding options of the climatic/conflict/ethnic variables. When quantifying at the continental level the impact on conflict of projected climate change in 2040, we find that, in absence of mixed population areas, global warming is predicted to increase total annual conflicts by about a quarter in whole Africa; when factoring in the magnifying effect of mixed settlements, total annual conflicts are predicted to rise by as much as a third. We also provide two pieces of evidence that resource competition is a major driver of farmer-herder violence. Firstly, conflicts are much more prevalent at the fringe between rangeland and farmland - a geographic buffer of mixed usage that is suitable for both cattle herding and farming but is particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. Secondly, information on groups' mobility reveals that temperature spikes in the ethnic homeland of a nomadic group tend to diffuse its fighting operations outside its homeland, with a magnified spatial spread in the case of conflicts over resources. Finally, we show that violence is substantially reduced in the presence of policies that empower local communities, foster participatory democracy, enforce property rights and regulate land dispute resolution.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Conflict, Violence, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Preventing Cattle Raiding Violence in South Sudan: Local level peace building focusing on young people

Author:
Richard Chilvers
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Within and Without the State (WWS), a programme funded by the UK Department for International Development, has been working in South Sudan since 2012 to improve the relationship between citizen and state. This case study describes the efforts of Community Empowerment and Progress Organization, a WWS partner, to work with young people in cattle raiding camps and support local communities to find their own solutions for peace. In the midst of a renewed outbreak of violence just two days before the country’s fifth anniversary, supporting local level peace initiatives remains as vital as ever.
Topic:
Peace, Cattle, Farming, Ranching, and Raiding
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

3. Do Public Transfers Discourage Farmer Participation in Subsistence Crop Production? Empirical Evidence from Botswana

Author:
Tebogo Seleka and Khaufelo Lekobane
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
We analyze the impact of public food and cash transfers on farmer participation in Botswana’s subsistence arable agriculture. The results indicate that publicly provided social pensions and food packages (rations) reduce the probability of participation in subsistence crop farming. Engagement in paid off-farm employment, which is sometimes facilitated through a public works programme (PWP), also discourages farmer participation in the subsistence economy. Therefore, public food and cash transfers and the PWP yield work disincentive effects in Botswana’s subsistence agriculture. This is because transfers are usually consistent and regular in Botswana, impacting on household behaviour. The design of social protection policies should therefore consider such potential disincentive effects on the agricultural sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economic Development, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana