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41. In Defense of Democracy: Lessons from ECOWAS' Management of The Gambia's 2016 Post-Election Impasse

Author:
Brown Odigie
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
The years 2015 and 2016 were crucial for the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from the perspective of its efforts to ensure sustainable peace and stability in the region, through supporting the conduct of peaceful elections and the orderly transfer of power. A total of 10 of its 15 member states held elections in 2015 and 2016. ECOWAS has a rich history of managing political transitions and elections in the past 18 years, following the adoption of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peace-keeping and Security (referred to as “the mechanism”), as well as the 2001 Supplementary Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Policy and Practice Brief (PPB) examines ECOWAS’ interventions around the electoral processes of its member states, with particular focus on its management of the 2016 post-election impasse in The Gambia. This highlights how effective a mediation process can be when mandates are grounded within institutions’ normative and legal instruments, and when international actors work in partnership with regional organisations with respect to the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages. The lessons from this intervention might therefore be relevant to other regional economic communities (RECs), the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN) in avoiding the pitfalls of working in silos or engaging in a multiplicity of interventions, which are often at cross-purposes.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Political Violence, Democratization, Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Gambia

42. Partnering for Sustainable Peace in Liberia

Author:
Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
Liberia is at a pivotal point in its transition to a peaceful democracy. In October 2017 the country will have its first ‘open seat’ elections. The incumbent, President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, will step down and hand over power to the leader of one of the 22 political parties that are currently participating in the election. Moreover, despite security fears for the elections, the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) has downsized from over 15 000 military troops in 2007 to around 1 000 soldiers in 2016 (see Figure 1). It will continue to draw down in 2017 in recognition of Liberia’s growing ownership of its own transition. The country has made steady progress in transitioning from decades of civil conflict into a new democracy. It has instituted a number of legal reforms, national strategies and peacebuilding activities to address the root causes of violence. Liberia has been receiving support from the United Nations’ (UN) Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) since 2010, but its institutions still need to be supported to consolidate their democracy gains. The 2015 review of the UN’s peacebuilding architecture argued that, for the peacebuilding components of peace operation mandates to be more effective, there must be better coordination between the UN Security Council Summary Liberia is going through an important period in its transition, with elections in October 2017 and the final drawdown of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in March 2018. Despite having made significant strides towards sustainable peace, the country still has a number of urgent peacebuilding priorities that need to be addressed. This policy brief is based on field research carried out in November 2016. It makes targeted, practical recommendations to the UN Peacebuilding Commission on enhancing its support to Liberia, drawing on a wide range of partnerships with other internal and external peacebuilding actors. Partnering for sustainable peace in Liberia Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo 2 Partnering for sustainable peace in Liberia (UNSC), the PBC and UN Country Teams. It also stated that the PBC could play an enhanced role in advising the UNSC on the diverse range of views from the full spectrum of international peace, security and development tools and actors, and in developing practical and context-specific solutions. Finally, the PBC could be instrumental in bringing together various stakeholders, both from New York and from the field, to mobilise peacebuilding support to conflict-affected countries. What does this mean in the case of Liberia? Noting the numerous peacebuilding actors (including national, regional, subregional and international organisations) involved in Liberia’s efforts to sustain peace, this policy brief makes practical recommendations on how the PBC, particularly its Liberia Configuration, can enhance its role in the country. Liberia has instituted a number of legal reforms, national strategies and peacebuilding activities to address the root causes of violence Statement of Mutual Commitment on peacebuilding in Liberia is signed by the government of Liberia and the PBC This paper is part of a broader project called ‘Enhancing African responses to peacebuilding’, made up of a consortium of three partner organisations – the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and New York University’s Center on International Cooperation (CIC). It is one of a series of products derived from research carried out from 2–10 November 2016 in Monrovia with 36 stakeholders from 22 institutions. It takes its point of departure from the Statement of Mutual Commitment (SMC) on peacebuilding in Liberia, signed in April 2016 by the government of Liberia and the PBC. This statement is particularly important, as it is the most comprehensive document confirming the Liberian government’s peacebuilding priorities,3 namely security sector development, rule of law, national reconciliation and a peaceful and inclusive society.4 Cross-cutting issues such as decentralisation and empowering youth and women were also noted. This paper first looks at those of Liberia’s national frameworks relevant to peacebuilding. It then examines the engagements of multiple peacebuilding actors in Liberia, with a particular focus on the roles of African regional, subregional and bilateral organisations. It also unpacks principles as to why they may hold an advantage in certain peacebuilding activities. Finally, the paper explores how the PBC can develop context-specific solutions to Liberia’s peacebuilding priority areas, making use of partnerships.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Elections, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

43. Ethiopia: The 100% Election

Author:
Leonardo R. Arriola and Terrance Lyons
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Ethiopia’s 2015 elections confirm that the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—having won 100 percent of parliamentary seats—has chosen to entrench an authoritarian system. We argue that this total election victory was meant as a signal to party cadres that defection is not tolerated. Our analysis of intra-regime dynamics shows how the EPRDF has responded to the death of Meles Zenawi through greater reliance on trusted party stalwarts for high-level posts. We conclude that growing demands from lower-level party cadres threaten to transform the ruling party from a disciplined national organization into a patronage-based alliance of ethnic factions.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

44. he World That Awaits President-Elect Trump

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
During the 2016 primaries, Donald Trump claimed he had more foreign policy experience than any of the GOP contenders. In fact, he has traveled widely to meet with presidents, prime ministers, financiers, and developers over the past decade as part of his highly profitable business of licensing the Trump name to large real estate developments around the world. On the campaign trail, Trump’s provocative statements about foreign policy have become part of the public record. From pressuring NAFTA members to bombing ISIS, his pledges have caused a stir in the arena of foreign relations. Publicly, candidate Trump threatened to close borders to Mexicans, slap tariffs on Chinese goods, restrict Muslims in the United States, among other vows. Without a record of public service to draw on, it is difficult to know how these declarations might translate into a Trump foreign policy. To understand what lies ahead for the new president, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs asked its Faculty Associates in international relations to comment on the challenges and opportunities that await in five regions of the world: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America, Europe, and China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, ISIS, and NAFTA
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and North America

45. Somaliland: The Strains of Success

Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somaliland’s hybrid system of tri-party democracy and traditional clan-based governance has enabled the consolidation of state-like authority, social and economic recovery and, above all, relative peace and security but now needs reform. Success has brought greater resources, including a special funding status with donors – especially the UK, Denmark and the European Union (EU) – as well as investment from and diplomatic ties with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), though not international recognition. It is increasingly part of the regional system; ties are especially strong with Ethiopia and Djibouti. Given the continued fragility of the Somalia Federal Government (SFG), which still rejects its former northern region’s independence claims, and civil war across the Gulf of Aden in Yemen, Somaliland’s continued stability is vital. This in turn requires political reforms aimed at greater inclusion, respect for mediating institutions (especially the professional judiciary and parliament) and a regional and wider internationally backed framework for external cooperation and engagement.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Somaliland

46. Nigeria Post-Election Survey

Author:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
The mood in Nigeria is extremely upbeat following the peaceful conduct of the 2015 general elections, which led to the first democratic transfer of power in the country’s history. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted pre- and post-election surveys in Nigeria focusing on perceptions of electoral integrity, opinions of election administration, and satisfaction with Nigerian democracy. Knowledge Perception InfographicFrom the December 2014 pre-election survey to the July 2015 post-election survey, satisfaction with democracy more than doubled with a 56 percent majority expressing satisfaction with the way democracy works in Nigeria, up by 30 percentage points in the pre-election phase (26%). Similarly, while only 23 percent of respondents in the pre-election phase believed Nigeria is a full democracy or a democracy with minor problems, 51 percent now believe Nigeria is a full democracy (18%) or a democracy with minor problems (33%), marking a net increase of 28 percentage points. Perception Integrity InfographicNearly three-quarters of Nigerians believe that both election integrity and the organization of the elections were better in the 2015 than in the previous polls in 2011. And while the survey indicated voters had to wait for several hours to get accredited and vote on Election Day, overall, 83 percent of voters assessed their voting experience to be good or very good. Indeed, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also registered a sharp increase by 16 percentage points, moving from 68 percent in pre-election levels to an overwhelming 85 percent after the elections. From December 2014 to July 2015, public awareness of the INEC and its Chairman at the time of the elections, Professor Attahiru Jega, increased by 16 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

47. Nigeria's 2015 Elections: Lessons and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Author:
Nkwachukwu Orji
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Despite widely held concerns about the likelihood of a destabilizing outcome, Nigeria suc- cessfully conducted its general elections on March 28 and April 11, 2015. The peaceful and positive result came to many as a surprise, considering the difficult political and secu- rity environment in which the elections were conducted. Five major obstacles had stood in the way of their going smoothly: the competing claims to the presidency by northern and southern politicians; a keenly contested campaign smeared by inflammatory messages; the grave security threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency; allegations of politically motivated postponement of the elections; and gaps in electoral preparations. This briefing assesses Nigeria’s 2015 general elections, highlighting factors that enabled the country to avoid larger-scale violence and lessons that can be learned from its experience.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

48. Gender and Political Representation in Botswana

Author:
Keneilwe S. Mooketsane
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The objective of this policy brief is to examine the factors influencing the level of participation of women in the electoral process in Botswana. It compares such participation with other Southern African jurisdictions and further explores the legal, institutional, economic, political, and cultural factors that influence such participation. Women in Botswana are poorly represented in decision making bodies such as parliament and cabinet where national socio-economic decisions are made and national priorities set.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Politics, Elections, Women, and Political structure
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

49. Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes

Author:
Serge Nanourou and Abigal Wilson
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Burundi is one of few countries in the world to have adopted a gender quota for its legislature in an effort to promote the inclusion and participation of women in the political process. As such, it presents an informative case study on the impact a gender quota can have as a catalyst for more progressive and inclusive governance. Given the International Foundation for Electoral System’s (IFES) commitment to gender equality and women’s participation in electoral processes and government, a thorough analysis demonstrating the effectiveness of quotas is a vital effort that aids IFES in supporting their use as a tool for democratic progress. As detailed in IFES’ Analysis of the Status of Women in Burundi’s Political and Electoral Processes, gender quotas in Burundi, which have their origin in the 2000 Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement that marked the end of a long and bloody civil war and have been encoded in Burundi’s Constitution and Electoral Code, have led to significant increases in the number of women participating in government, which is an important initial step in ensuring meaningful participation of all members of society. Perhaps the greatest indicator of success of the gender quota policy in Burundi is the high rate of women’s representation in the legislature. In the 2010 elections, 31% of National Assembly members and 46% of senators were women. Most remarkable is the fact that provisions to ensure quota requirements, which are set at 30% minimum, did not have to be invoked in order to reach these figures. In contrast, the 30% quota was only reached after seats were added in the 2005 elections. Four years prior to that, before provisions ensuring a minimum of 30% of women’s representation in the legislature had been adopted, less than 20% of seats in both the National Assembly and the Senate were filled by women. This marked improvement from election to election is strong evidence for the efficacy of gender quotas in the Burundian context.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Elections, Women, and Feminism
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi