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51. Comparative Continuismo: Presidential Term Limit Contravention Across Developing Democracies

Author:
Kristin McKie
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Since presidential term limits were (re)adopted into many constitutions during the third wave of democratization, 207 presidents across Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia have reached the end of their terms in office. Of these, 30% have attempted to contravene term limits whereas 70% have stepped down in compliance with tenure rules. Furthermore, of the presidents who have attempted to alter tenure restrictions, some have succeeded in fully abolishing term limits, others have only managed a one-term extension, while a minority have failed in their bids to secure any additional terms in office. What explains these divergent trajectories? On the basis of a series of statistical analyses, I argue that trends in electoral competition over time are the best predictor of the range of term limit contravention outcomes across the board, with the least competitive elections permitting full term limit abolition and the most competitive elections saving off attempts at altering executive tenure rules. Furthermore, results show that failed contravention attempts are true borderline cases, rather than instances gross miscalculations of success by the president and her party, in that they feature less competitive elections than non-attempt cases but more competitive elections than successful contravention cases. These findings suggest a linkage between political uncertainty and constitutional stability more generally.
Topic:
Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, and Latin America

52. Constitutional Term Limits for African Leaders

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
African leaders’ adherence to constitutional term limits is a key component of institutionalizing predictable norms of democratic succession. Progress toward establishing this norm has been mixed, however. While a number of African countries have succeeded in upholding term limits over the past two decades, leaders in more than 20 countries effectively do not face restrictions on their time in power.
Topic:
Democracy, Political structure, Political stability, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, East Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa

53. What We Think about When We Think of Crime

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Jean and John Comaroff, professors in the Departments of African and African American Studies and of Anthropology, divide their teaching and research between Harvard and universities in South Africa. Their scholarship has focused on colonialism and the transformation of societies in the postcolonial and late modern worlds. A recent joint effort, The Truth about Crime, documents their “existential engagement” with the interplay of crime, policing, and sovereignty, in response to what they see as a rising global preoccupation. The Comaroffs joined the academic boycott of South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s until the transition of power and formal end of apartheid in 1994. Upon their return to Cape Town, they immediately noticed an overwhelming preoccupation with crime in South Africa. Their desire to unpack this obsession, and what it says about modernity and our relationship to the state, is the subject of their book. Together, the Comaroffs consider the economic, political, and sociological shifts that underlie modern attitudes toward criminality and how these shifts have contributed to the fear of one another, to racial violence, and to public distrust in government. The Weatherhead Center spoke to the Comaroffs from their home in Cape Town, and asked them to tease out some of the complex relationships between crime and policing and how they affect the concept of citizenship.
Topic:
Crime, Politics, Democracy, and Police
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, South Africa, and North America

54. Overlapping Effects of Autocracy and Conflict in Africa

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The strong overlap of autocracy and conflict in Africa underscores the strong political dimensions of Africa’s contemporary conflicts.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Central Africa, and Horn of Africa

55. Ethiopia: The 100% Election

Author:
Leonardo R. Arriola and Terrance Lyons
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Ethiopia’s 2015 elections confirm that the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—having won 100 percent of parliamentary seats—has chosen to entrench an authoritarian system. We argue that this total election victory was meant as a signal to party cadres that defection is not tolerated. Our analysis of intra-regime dynamics shows how the EPRDF has responded to the death of Meles Zenawi through greater reliance on trusted party stalwarts for high-level posts. We conclude that growing demands from lower-level party cadres threaten to transform the ruling party from a disciplined national organization into a patronage-based alliance of ethnic factions.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

56. 25 Years After the USSR: What’s Gone Wrong?

Author:
Henry E. Hale
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
A quarter century after the USSR’s breakup, the region it occupied has become more rather than less authoritarian on average. The rise has been neither steep nor steady, however, and the dominant regional pattern has been regime cycling, with movement both toward and away from authoritarianism at different points in time. Key causes are the tenacious pre-Soviet legacy of patronalism, the prevalence of presidentialist constitutions, and strong leadership popularity without the strong Western linkage and leverage that has often mitigated similar authoritarian tendencies in places like Africa and Latin America.
Topic:
Power Politics, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Latin America

57. The Arab Spring, Dominoes, and Turkey

Author:
Goktug Sonmez
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Değişim Yayınları
Abstract:
In an era of unexpected shifts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the challenges stemmed from these shifting dynamics, the question is whether the new socio-political atmosphere is sustainable in the medium to long-run in spite of politically questionable achievements? In order to address this question, some historical insight along with an elaboration on the concept of “domino theory” could be of some use. Did the “domino effect” of the Arab Spring work in the opposite direction and a “reverse domino effect” turn the picture upside down with authoritarian rulers acquiring power once and for all and eliminating oppositional groups as it is seen from several cases already? From Lenin to Eisenhower, the analogy of “dominoes” and their “fall”, referring to the potential chain reaction following a major political and/or military action / development, found their place in policymaking, and indeed, continued to do so even though direct reference to those terms became less and less popular. However, historical experience implies that despite the popularity of these concepts, dominoes might not fall one after another. Rather, the “next dominoes” can strengthen their position in order to avoid the fate of the last one. Either those regimes would face an irresistible wave of “reverse domino effect” or the fall of some “dominoes” would even help them act more cautiously in order to consolidate what they achieved, one thing is clear; Turkey has the potential and intention to be one of the key players to have an influence over the future and sustainability of the “tectonic shift” we witnessed, better known as “the Arab Spring”. At the same time, unsurprisingly, Turkey is also one of the countries that has been and will be affected by its possible U-turn, too.
Topic:
Social Movement, Popular Revolt, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Syria

58. Democratization Processes and Political Competition in 1990’s Africa: The Cases of Mozambique and Zambia

Author:
Fidel Terenciano, Maria Do Socorro Souza Braga, and Carlos Augusto da Silva Souza
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:
Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:
Democracy and democratization must be understood within its scope, considering the singularities and the contextual aspects of each society. And the democracies of the third wave also contemplate singularities that cannot be measured by the rubble of other contexts. The pretension of the present research is to study democracy and democratization in Mozambique and Zambia considering two elements: the electoral system, its singularities and then the formation and the shape of the party system with its correspondent nuances. Because it is important to analyze the effect of one in relation with the other, we focus our analysis in two aspects: first, the political and electoral competition in both countries, emphasizing to the party fluctuations in the Parliament, and secondly we analyze the electoral competition in the perspective of power alternance, which constitutes one of the dimensions to measure the level of stability of democracies.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, History, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Zambia

59. Politics Of Gender In The Recent Democratic Transitions In The Middle East And North Africa

Author:
Canan Aslan Akman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Alternative Politics
Abstract:
The weakness of a direct causality between democratic transitions and women-friendly outcomes remains a major finding of research on the gendered impacts of transition processes. In the recent Arab uprisings leading to regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), women’s mobilization was a significant aspect of the regime changes. By contextualizing the gender dynamics and the outcomes of the democratic transitions in Tunusia, Egypt, Morrocco and Libya, this article analyzes and compares Arab women’s transitional politicization. It also inquires into women’s roles, demands and predicaments within the patriarchal structures of the transitional polities. These transitions presented both opportunities as well as challenges for Arab women under new constellations of balance of power in their respective political systems, which led to the rise of a new gender agenda. It is contended here that specific structural and agency-related factors have been intertwined to constrain women’s transitional mobilization and the post-transitional quest for empowerment. The fragility of the gender equality agenda in the post-dictatorship Arab world has been shaped, to large extent, by the legacies of previous state-led gender equality projects on by women’s (pro-) feminist activism, as well as by the nature of the transition processes and women’s civil society participation during and in the aftermath of the transitions.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Social Movement, Women, Democracy, and Political structure
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia

60. Nigeria's 2015 Elections: Lessons and Prospects for Democratic Consolidation

Author:
Nkwachukwu Orji
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Despite widely held concerns about the likelihood of a destabilizing outcome, Nigeria suc- cessfully conducted its general elections on March 28 and April 11, 2015. The peaceful and positive result came to many as a surprise, considering the difficult political and secu- rity environment in which the elections were conducted. Five major obstacles had stood in the way of their going smoothly: the competing claims to the presidency by northern and southern politicians; a keenly contested campaign smeared by inflammatory messages; the grave security threat posed by the Boko Haram insurgency; allegations of politically motivated postponement of the elections; and gaps in electoral preparations. This briefing assesses Nigeria’s 2015 general elections, highlighting factors that enabled the country to avoid larger-scale violence and lessons that can be learned from its experience.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria