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21. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa

22. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Africa

23. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:
Richard Youngs
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

24. In the Balance: Searching for protection in eastern DRC

Author:
Hannah Cooper
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
As 2014 starts, there are reasons to hope that peace may be in sight in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). National initiatives and committed regional and international political engagement in 2013 led to important advances and new framework agreements to resolve the conflict and insecurity. However, the people Oxfam talked to across eastern DRC reported that their situation remains precarious, particularly in remote areas where there is little state presence. Ongoing national, regional and international engagement is needed, as well as efforts to ensure that high level agreements and initiatives are systematically linked to community experiences. Without these, it is possible that this rare opportunity will be wasted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

25. Afrique centrale : les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
La pénétration du pastoralisme qui s'accentue depuis plusieurs années en Afrique centrale génère des conflits à la fois fréquents et ignorés dans un monde rural où l'empreinte de l'Etat est particulièrement faible. Ces conflits s'intensifient sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs: l'insécurité croissante, le changement climatique qui pousse les pasteurs toujours plus au sud, l'éclatement des couloirs traditionnels de transhumance, notamment transfrontaliers, l'extension des cultures et l'augmentation des cheptels qui entrainent une compétition accrue sur les ressources naturelles. Même si les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme ne sont pas de même intensité dans les trois pays étudiés dans ce rapport (Tchad, République centrafricaine et République démocratique du Congo), ils ont deux dénominateurs communs : l'impératif d'une prise en compte de ce problème par les pouvoirs publics et la nécessité d'une régulation de la transhumance qui inclue les différents acteurs concernés.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Africa

26. Terminating Security Council Sanctions

Author:
Kristen E. Boon
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
This report assesses the United Nations Security Council's current approach to drawing down sanctions in intrastate war situations. After examining broader questions surrounding the UN's authority to impose sanctions and the corresponding limits on these powers, this report assesses criteria used by the council to terminate sanctions. It observes that multilateral sanctions under the UN Security Council tend to last substantially longer than sanctions by regional organizations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); and it argues that short sanctions periods are preferable to long sanctions periods.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa and United Nations

27. Creating Sustainable Peacekeeping Capability in Africa

Author:
Daniel Hampton
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Over 60,000 African troops from 39 different nations serve in peace operations worldwide. Maintaining African peacekeeping capability requires an ongoing training process to sustain the skill proficiency of troop contingents for rapid deployment and crisis response. Continued reliance on international trainers undercuts the institutionalization of African peacekeeping capability. An African-led training model would not only be more sustainable but would draw on the relevant, practical experience that African peacekeepers have gained over the years.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

28. South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 15 December 2013 the world's newest state descended into civil war. Continuing fighting has displaced more than 1,000,000 and killed over 10,000 while a humanitarian crisis threatens many more. Both South Sudanese and the international community were ill-prepared to prevent or halt the conflict: the nation's closest allies did little to mediate leadership divisions within the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement's (SPLM). The SPLM and its army (SPLA) quickly split along divisions largely unaddressed from the independence war. Were it not for the intervention of Uganda and allied rebel and militia groups, the SPLA would likely not have been able to hold Juba or recapture lost territory. The war risks tearing the country further apart and is pulling in regional states. Resolving the conflict requires not a quick fix but sustained domestic and international commitment. Governance, including SPLM and SPLA reform and communal relations, must be on the table. Religious and community leaders, civil society and women are critical to this process and must not be excluded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

29. The Central African Republic – a history of a collapse foretold?

Author:
Morten Bøås
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Political instability and administrative weakness have been permanent features of the Central African Republic (CAR) ever since independence. This is, therefore, the history of a collapse foretold. Michel Djotodia may have had good intentions when he put together the Séléka alliance; the problem was that the only thing that kept it together was the desire to get rid of François Bozizé. When Bozizé was gone, the coalition's internal coherence also disappeared. Thus, for lack of other options, the alliance members continued to make their livelihoods based on plunder. As the situation worsened, the communities plundered established their own militias, and the stage was set for a simmering sectarian conflict between Christians and Muslims. It is in this mess of communal violence that the international forces are supposed to re-establish law and order. The main challenge, however, is how to avoid adding fuel to the sectarian fire. The international forces must tread carefully, and any attempt at disarming militias must be conducted with this in mind. What has happened and is happening is tragic, but it is neither genocide nor a full-blown sectarian conflict. This can still be avoided if the international forces behave impartially with regard to the two main religious communities in the country.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Religion, Sectarian violence, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa

30. From Crisis to Catastrophe: South Sudan's man-made crisis — and how the world must act now to prevent catastrophe in 2015

Author:
Isabel Martins
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
South Sudan is facing the world's worst food crisis, driven by the conflict that erupted in December 2013. Unless there is an end to the fighting, this food crisis will continue. Without far stronger international pressure, the conflict is unlikely to be resolved. International diplomacy – as well as aid and the protection of civilians on the ground – is urgently needed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Humanitarian Aid, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan