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32. Unwilling and Unable: The Failed Response to the Atrocities in Darfur
- Author:
- James Traub
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Starting in mid-2003, the government of Sudan responded to an armed rebellion in the western state of Darfur with a massive campaign of killing and expulsion carried out both by regular army troops and by a proxy force known as the Janjaweed. United Nations (UN) sources estimate that this orchestrated effort led to the death of at least 300,000 people, while over two million were forcibly displaced. Extensive documentation by the UN, human-rights organizations and the media leaves no doubt that the Sudanese government and the Janjaweed committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, and did so over a period of many years. Yet all attempts to stop the killing, whether by neighbors, regional organizations, Western states or the UN Security Council, proved ineffective. In 2005, states-including Sudan-unanimously agreed that they had a responsibility to protect populations from mass atrocities; but this abstract commitment has had little effect on the Sudanese government or on other UN member states who had made this pledge.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, United Nations, Armed Struggle, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Africa
33. Madagascar : sortir du cycle de crises
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Madagascar est en crise depuis les troubles sanglants qui l'ont secoué début 2009. Plusieurs mois de médiation sous l'égide de l'Union africaine (UA), entre autres, n'ont pas permis de débloquer la situation. Malgré la signature de plusieurs documents, et l'annonce de l'Union africaine de sanctions individuelles contre les membres du regime le 17 mars, les négociations n'ont pas abouti, principalement à cause du refus du gouvernement Rajoelina de mettre en oeuvre le partage du pouvoir accepté à Maputo en août. Bien que la violence ait été contenue depuis qu'il a pris le pouvoir en mars 2009, la légitimité du régime est remise en question tant à l'intérieur du pays qu'à l'extérieur, alors qu'une situation économique difficile pèse lourdement sur une population déjà appauvrie. Pour éviter toute escalade, la médiation devrait cesser d'essayer de mettre en place une transition fondée sur un partage du pouvoir, et tenter plutôt d'obtenir un accord sur la rédaction consensuelle d'une nouvelle constitution et l'organisation rapide d'élections sous supervision internationale
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Environment, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa
34. Renewed Conflict in Sudan
- Author:
- Katherine J. Almquist
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Under the terms of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that ended Sudan's bloody civil war, which claimed two million lives and displaced four million more, a referendum in southern Sudan must be held by January 2011 to determine whether it remains united with the north or secedes from it. Given that popular sentiment in the south overwhelmingly favors secession, two basic scenarios are conceivable: the south secedes peacefully through a credible referendum process, or the CPA collapses and the south fights for independence. There is no scenario in which the south remains peacefully united with the north beyond 2011. Further complicating prospects for averting renewed violence are the ongoing conflict in Darfur and potential conflicts in other marginalized areas of the north. The violent secession of the south would hinder efforts to resolve these conflicts, as well as increase the prospect for greater internecine fighting among historic rivals in the south. The resulting significant loss of life and widespread political unrest would threaten regional stability and challenge U.S. interests in Africa.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Sudan
35. LRA: A Regional Strategy beyond Killing Kony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has become a regional problem that requires a regional solution. Operation Lightning Thunder, launched in December 2008, is the Ugandan army's latest attempt to crush militarily the one- time northern Ugandan rebel group. It has been a failure. After the initial attack, small groups of LRA fighters dispersed in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Congo), South Sudan and the Central African Republic (CAR), where they survive by preying on civilians. National security forces are too weak to protect their own people, while the Ugandan army, with U.S. support, is focused on hunting Joseph Kony, the group's leader. The Ugandans have eroded the LRA's numbers and made its communications more difficult. But LRA fighters, though disorganised, remain a terrible danger to civilians in this mostly ungoverned frontier zone. National armies, the UN and civilians themselves need to pool intelligence and coordinate their efforts in new ways if they are to end the LRA once and for all.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, International Cooperation, United Nations, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, United States, and South Sudan
36. Rhetoric and Reality: The Failure to Resolve the Darfur Conflict
- Author:
- Julie Flint
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Small Arms Survey
- Abstract:
- Seven years after large-scale militia attacks signalled a change in the long- running but generally low-level conflict in Darfur, an unprecedented array of international instruments has been deployed, often chaotically, to address the conflict, including peacekeepers, peacemakers, special envoys, mediators, sanctions, embargoes, and criminal prosecution. Yet peace remains as elusive as ever. In the three and a half years since the Darfur Peace Agreement was precipitously concluded in Abuja and, rejected by most Darfurians, left to wither, the paradigm of government–rebel talks has persisted, despite stalemate. Time is not on Darfur's side: the longer the conflict continues, the more actors become involved and the harder it is to resolve. With national elections scheduled for April 2010 and a referendum on self-determination for Southern Sudan in 2011, the focus has moved away from Darfur. This Working Paper examines mediation efforts since Abuja and suggests why they have failed.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Treaties and Agreements, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
37. Ghosts of Christmas Past: Protecting civilians from the LRA
- Author:
- Ellie Kemp and Verity Johnson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- On Christmas Eve 2008 and over the following three weeks, 865 women, men and children were savagely beaten to death and hundreds more abducted by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in a remote corner in the north-east of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and in southern Sudan. The attack was a murderous backlash in response to Operation “Lightning Thunder”, a military offensive launched some 10 days before against the LRA by Uganda, DRC and southern Sudan. Less than a year later, between 14 and 17 December 2009, LRA commanders oversaw the killing of more than 300 people, again shattering communities in a remote corner of northern DRC.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, and Sudan
38. Facing Homegrown Radicalization
- Author:
- Myriam Benraad
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last month, Kamal Hassan, a Somali-American living in Minnesota, pled guilty to training and fighting with al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group in Somalia. In July, two other Somali-Americans in Minnesota pled guilty to similar charges, with the FBI continuing to investigate more than a dozen others who may have traveled from the United States to Somalia. The FBI also recently arrested seven individuals in North Carolina on terrorism-related charges, including one who had spent time in Afghan training camps. These and other recent events have raised new concerns in the United States about the threat of homegrown radicalization.
- Topic:
- Security, Crime, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Europe, Washington, and North Carolina
39. Blood Oil in the Niger Delta
- Author:
- Judith Burdin Asuni
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The trade in stolen oil, or “blood oil,” poses an immense challenge to the Nigerian state, harming its economy and fueling a long-running insurgency in the Niger Delta. It also undermines security in the Gulf of Guinea and adds to instability on world energy markets. The exact amount of oil stolen per day in the Niger Delta is unknown, but it is somewhere between 30,000 and 300,000 barrels. The loss to the Nigerian economy from illegal oil bunkering between 2003 and 2008 totals approximately US$100 billion. It is time for the international community to become more proactive in helping Nigeria address this complex issue. Efforts to control blood oil must be accompanied by actions against corruption, illegal arms importation, and money laundering. The enabling environment for illegal oil bunkering includes high levels of unemployed youth, armed ethnic militias, ineffective and corrupt law enforcement officials, protective government officials and politicians, corrupt oil company staff, established international markets for stolen oil, and the overall context of endemic corruption. The three types of illegal oil bunkering include small-scale pilfering for the local market, large-scale tapping of pipelines to fill large tankers for export, and excess lifting of crude oil beyond the licensed amount. The complexity of players in the illegal oil bunkering business, including local youth, members of the Nigerian military and political class, and foreign ship owners, makes it difficult to tackle the problem unilaterally. Previous attempts by the Nigerian government and international community to address illegal oil bunkering have had limited success in reducing the flow of blood oil. The problem of blood oil needs to be addressed multilaterally. Within the international community, the United States is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in helping to dry up blood oil and address other issues in the Niger Delta.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Markets, Oil, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Nigeria, and Guinea
40. Scenarios for Sudan: Avoiding Political Violence Through 2011
- Author:
- Alan Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Absent a change in current trends, further political violence in Sudan will be hard to avoid. Lack of governance capacity in the South and failure to resolve key issues between the North and South are important factors that can lead to political violence surrounding the referendum, slated for 2011, on whether the South secedes or remains part of a united Sudan. The parties need a shared sense of confidence about post-2011 futures. The North should be encouraged to cooperate in the referendum process and accept the outcome. The Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) should devote more energy and resources to governance and service delivery rather than building military capability. The international community needs an assistance strategy focused on enhancing the GOSS's capacity to deliver services through local governments. The United States and the international community should pressure and assist the parties to promptly pass referendum legislation and address fundamental issues (e.g., oil and boundaries) before the referendum.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Genocide, Human Rights, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Sudan, and Arabia