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2181. Climate Alarm: Disasters increase as climate change bites

Author:
John Magrath
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Climatic disasters are on the increase as the Earth warms up – in line with scientific observations and computer simulations that model future climate. 2007 has been a year of climatic crises, especially floods, often of an unprecedented nature. They included Africa's worst floods in three decades, unprecedented flooding in Mexico, massive floods in South Asia and heat waves and forest fires in Europe, Australia, and California. By mid November the United Nations had launched 15 'flash appeals', the greatest ever number in one year. All but one were in response to climatic disasters.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, California, and Australia

2182. The Cleavage Model, Ethnicity and Voter Alignment in Africa: Conceptual and Methodological Problems Revisited

Author:
Gero Erdmann
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Recent research on political parties and ethnicity has challenged the conventional wisdom about ethnicity as the major factor that explains voter alignment in Africa. The paper maintains that the cleavage model, although modified to include ethnicity, still provides heuristically the best foundation for the explanation of party formation and voting behaviour in Africa. It points out that inconclusive and contradicting research results about the salience of ethnicity can be attributed to a variety of unresolved methodological and conceptual problems linked to the 'fluidity' of the concept of ethnicity. To overcome these problems refined research designs and more sophisticated analytical tools are required. Finally, it is safe to assume that the relevance of ethnicity for the formation of party systems and voter alignment is not a uniform pattern across Africa, but will differ from one country to the other.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa

2183. Sectoral Transformations in Neo-Patrimonial Rentier States: Tourism Development and State Policy in Egypt

Author:
Thomas Richter and Christian Steiner
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article challenges claims that liberalising state regulated markets in developing countries may induce lasting economic development. The analysis of the rise of tourism in Egypt during the last three decades suggests that the effects of liberalisation and structural adjustment are constrained by the neo-patrimonial character of the Egyptian political system. Since the decline of oil rent revenues during the 1980s tourism development was the optimal strategy to compensate for the resulting fiscal losses. Increasing tourism revenues have helped in coping with macroeconomic imbalances and in avoiding more costly adjustment of traditional economic sectors. Additionally, they provided the private elite with opportunities to generate large profits. Therefore, sectoral transformations due to economic liberalisation in neo-patrimonial Rentier states should be described as a process, which has led to the diversification of external rent revenues, rather than to a general downsizing of the Rentier character of the economy.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, and Egypt

2184. Seeking Opportunities: Migration as an Income Diversification Strategy of Households in Kakamega District in Kenya

Author:
Lena Giesbert
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Migration and remittances are widely seen as major components of diversification strategies aimed at coping with risky environments in developing countries. The debate in the literature mainly concentrates on effects of and access to the strategy of migration. Against this background, the paper investigates patterns, determinants and the impact of internal migration on households based on data from a densely populated rural area in Western Kenya. The motivation behind migration is largely economic in kind. Accordingly, remittances account for a substantial share of household incomes. Results derived from a probit model estimation indicate that the likelihood of migration is independent from the wealth position of households. Instead, demographic household factors, education-related variables and migrant networks are of central importance. Migration and remittances are obviously more easily accessible than other opportunities of income diversification beyond farming for households across all levels of wealth, including the poorest households. JEL classification:
Topic:
Economics, Migration, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

2185. Emerging Middle Powers' Soft Balancing Strategy: State and Perspectives of the IBSA Dialogue Forum

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
How can weaker states influence stronger ones? This article offers a case study of one recent exercise in coalition building among Southern middle powers, the 'India, Brazil, South Africa (IBSA) Dialogue Forum'. The analysis outlines five major points: first, it argues that the three emerging players can be defined as middle powers in order to frame their foreign policy behavior and options at the global level. Second, soft balancing is a suitable concept to explain IBSA's strategy in global institutions. Third, institutional foreign policy instruments are of pivotal significance in IBSA's soft balancing strategy. Fourth, the potential gains of IBSA's sector cooperation, particularly in trade, are limited due to a lack of complementarity of the three economies. And fifth, IBSA's perspectives and impact on the international system will depend on four variables: IBSA's ability to focus on distinct areas of cooperation, the consolidation of its common strategy of soft balancing, the institutionalization of IBSA, and its enlargement in order to obtain more weight in global bargains.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

2186. African Migration to Europe: Obscured Responsibilities and Common Misconceptions

Author:
Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The number of migrants from conflict regions in Africa has been increasing dramatically. The European Union shares dual responsibility for the continuing migration pressure: First, because it fostered over decades corrupt and autocratic regimes with dire disregard to principles of 'good governance'. The aftermath of these regimes is still felt today and constitutes one of the underlying factors for politically motivated migration. Second, the EU contributed to Africa's economic misery due to its selfish external trade policy. Nevertheless, the prevailing perspective of the EU and of its member countries concerning African immigration remains to be focused on security, the foreclosure of its external borders and prevention. Current EU programs and concepts to fight African migration are questionable. Even development‐oriented approaches are bound to fail, if not backed by sustainable immigration policies.
Topic:
Security and Migration
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

2187. Patronage-Preserving Federalism? Legislative Malapportionment and Subnational Fiscal Policies in Argentina

Author:
Jorge Gordin
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper builds on institutional analysis to generate new conclusions about the economic viability of federalism. It does so by suggesting that Weingast´s seminal model of marketpreserving federalism falls short of accounting for the poor fiscal performance of multitiered systems in the developing world. This theoretical deficiency stems to a large extent from the insufficient attention paid by this model to the institutional complexity of federal systems, particularly the public policy effects of legislative malapportionment. Subsequent to an analytical discussion of the potential public spending and distributive politics distortions resulting from overrepresentation, we offer preliminary empirical evidence from Argentina, a federation exhibiting one of the most decentralized fiscal systems in the world and severe imbalances in the territorial distribution of legislative and economic resources. The findings show not only that said imbalances lead to sub‐optimal fiscal results but also that they have a mutually‐reinforcing relationship with regionalized patronage.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Argentina, and South America

2188. Conceptualising Regional Power in International Relations: Lessons from the South African Case

Author:
Daniel Flemes
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Regional powers can be distinguished by four pivotal criteria: claim to leadership, power resources, employment of foreign policy instruments, and acceptance of leadership. Applying these indicators to the South African case, the analysis demonstrates the crucial significance of institutional foreign policy instruments. But although the South African government is ready to pay the costs of co-operative hegemony (such as capacity building for regional institutions and peacekeeping), the regional acceptance of South Africa's leadership is constrained by its historical legacy. Additionally, Pretoria's foreign policy is based on ideational resources such as its reputation as an advocate of democracy and human rights and the legitimacy derived from its paradigmatic behaviour as a 'good global citizen'. However, the Mbeki presidency is more successful in converting these resources into discursive instruments of interest-assertion in global, rather than in regional bargains. In effect the regional power's reformist South-oriented multilateralism is challenging some of the guiding principles of the current international system.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2189. Boda-bodas Rule: Non-agricultural Activities and Their Inequality Implications in Western Kenya

Author:
Jann Lay, George Michuki M'Mukaria, and  Toman Omar Mahmoud
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Engagement in non-agricultural activities in rural areas can be classified into survival-led or opportunity-led. Survival-led diversification would decrease inequality by increasing the incomes of poorer households and thus reduce poverty. By contrast, opportunity-led diversification would increase inequality and have a minor effect on poverty, as it tends to be confined to non-poor households. Using data from Western Kenya, we confirm the existence of the differently motivated diversification strategies. Yet, the poverty and inequality implications differ somewhat from our expectations. Our findings indicate that in addition to asset constraints, rural households also face limited or relatively risky high-return opportunities outside agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

2190. Crafting Political Institutions in Africa. Electoral Systems and Systems of Government in Rwanda and Zambia Compared

Author:
Alexander Stroh
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Scholars of institutional design attribute large importance to the choice of new institutions. The comparative analysis of how Rwanda and Zambia crafted their new electoral systems and the systems of government regards procedural, structural and rational choice variables which may influence the option for particular solutions. External influences and the type of transition are determinants that can decide which actors make their interests prevail. The degree of innovation or conservatism of new institutions is mainly a result of the speed of the process and the kind of actors involved. However, rational reflections on how to produce legitimacy and minimize personal risks which take into consideration the state of conflict in the country decide on the speed and on innovative outcomes. The structured analysis of only two cases uncovers already that it is rather difficult to realise the transfer of design recommendations into reality.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, and Holland