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1. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

2. Dancing on the grid: electricity crises, manufacturing energy vulnerability, and jobs in South Africa

Author:
Gideon Ndubuisi, Elvis Korku Avenyo, and Rex Asiama
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa’s current electricity crises have worsened, placing the country on an uncertain and turbulent economic trajectory. To identify the manufacturing sub-sectors that are most vulnerable to this crises, we use the input–output matrices for the period between 1993 and 2021 to develop a sub-sector energy vulnerability index. Second, we employ the self-constructed energy vulnerability index in a flexible empirical framework to examine the effect of the electricity crises on manufacturing sector jobs in the country. We find that energy vulnerability has a high degree of heterogeneity across manufacturing sub-sectors, highlighting cross-sector differences in the level of exposure and susceptibility to the energy-related crises. Results from the empirical analysis, on the other hand, suggest that electricity crises are associated with significant job destruction, with this adverse effect severe for manufacturing sectors with higher energy vulnerability intensity. The severity of this adverse effect holds irrespective of the nature of jobs, whether formal or informal.
Topic:
Crisis Management, Manufacturing, Electricity, Vulnerability, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa