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81. Savings and Financial Sector Development: Panel Cointegration Evidence from Africa

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper uses different measures of financial sector development for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 17 African countries to examine the impact of financial sector development on private savings. An innovative econometric methodology is also employed related to a series of cointegration tests within a panel. This is an important contribution since traditional panel data analysis adopted in previous studies suffers from serious heterogeneity bias problems. The empirical results obtained vary considerably among countries in the panel, thus highlighting the importance of using different measures of financial sector development rather than a single indicator. The evidence is rather inconclusive, although in most of the countries in the sample a positive relationship between financial sector development and private savings seems to hold. The empirical analysis also suggests that a change in government savings is offset by an opposite change in private savings in most of the countries in the panel, thus confirming the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. Liquidity constraints do not seem to play a vital role in most of the African countries in the group, since the relevant coefficient is negative and significant in only a small group of countries
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

82. Conflict and Peace-building in Africa: The Regional Dimensions

Author:
Timothy Shaw
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Contemporary Africa reveals a range of causes, consequences and responses to conflicts which are increasingly interrelated as well as regional in character, as around the Great Lakes/Horn. Their economic and non-state features are undeniable, leading to some promising possibilities in terms of 'track-two' diplomacy both on and off the continent, such as the 'Kimberley Process' around 'blood' diamonds. Development corridors and trans-frontier peace-parks may also constitute innovative ways to moderate and contain conflict. As often, changeable African cases challenge established assumptions, analyses and policies, such as those around civil society, governance, regional and security studies.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa

83. Food Aid and Informal Insurance

Author:
Stefan Dercon and Pramila Krishnan
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Households in developing countries use a variety of informal mechanisms to cope with risk, including mutual support and risk-sharing. These mechanisms cannot avoid that they remain vulnerable to shocks. Public programs in the form of food aid distribution and food-for-work programs are meant to protect vulnerable households from consumption and nutrition downturns by providing a safety net. In this paper we look into the extent to which food aid helps to smooth consumption by reducing the impact of negative shocks, taking into account informal risk-sharing arrangements. Using panel data from Ethiopia, we find that despite relatively poor targeting of the food aid, the programs contribute to better consumption outcomes, largely via intra-village risk sharing.
Topic:
Development, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

84. Health, Shocks and Poverty Persistence

Author:
Stefan Dercon and John Hoddinott
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we review the evidence on the impact of large shocks, such as drought, on child and adult health, with particular emphasis on Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Our focus is on the impact of shocks on long-term outcomes, and we ask whether there are intrahousehold differences in these effects. The evidence suggests substantial fluctuations in body weight and growth retardation in response to shocks. While there appears to be no differential impact between boys and girls, adult women are often worse affected by these shocks. For children, there is no full recovery from these losses, affecting adult health and education outcomes, as well as lifetime earnings. For adults, there is no evidence of persistent effects from transitory shocks in our data.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia

85. Regional or National Poverty Lines? The Case of Uganda in the 1990s

Author:
Simon Appleton
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Absolute poverty lines are often derived from the cost of obtaining sufficient calories. Where staples vary across regions, such poverty lines may differ depending on whether they are set using national or regional food baskets. Regional poverty lines are open to the objection that they may be contaminated by income effects. This paper explores this issue by focussing on Uganda, a country where widening spatial inequalities in the 1990s have caused concern. Conflicting results from earlier studies have suggested that the spatial pattern of poverty in Uganda is very sensitive to whether national or regional food baskets are used in setting poverty lines. We confirm this suggestion by comparing the spatial profile of poverty in 1993 using national and regional poverty lines. However, since the regions consuming the more expensive staple sources of calories are also those with higher incomes, using simple regional poverty lines is problematic. Instead, a method of setting regional poverty lines is considered that adjusts for income differentials between regions. Even with this adjustment, the use of regional food baskets implies a markedly different.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

86. Which Types of Aid Have the Most Impact?

Author:
George Mavrotas
Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper uses an aid disaggregation approach to examine the impact of different types of aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient country. It uses time-series data on different types of aid (project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid) for Uganda, an important aid recipient in recent years, to estimate a model of fiscal response in the presence of aid which combines aid disaggregation and endogenous aid. The empirical findings clearly suggest the importance of the above approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues since different aid categories have different effects on key fiscal variables—an impact that could not be revealed if a single figure for aid was employed. More precisely, project aid and food aid appear to cause a reduction in public investment whereas programme aid and technical assistance are positively related to public investment. The same applies for government consumption. A negligible impact on government tax and non-tax revenues, and a strong displacement of government borrowing are also found.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

87. Reforms, Remoteness and Risk in Africa: Understanding Inequality and Poverty during the 1990s

Author:
Luc Christiaensen, Lionel Demery, and Stefano Paternostro
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study traces the interactions between economic growth, income inequality and consumption poverty in a sample of African countries during the 1990s. It draws on the much-improved household data sets now available in the region. It finds that experiences have varied: some countries have seen sharp falls in income poverty; others have witnessed marked increases. Economic growth has been 'pro-poor' in that the incomes of poor households have typically grown at similar or faster rates than average income. But the aggregate numbers hide significant and systematic distributional effects which have caused some groups and regions to be left behind. The paper explores the contours of these effects, and draws three key conclusions. First, agricultural market liberalization has been conducive to reductions in rural poverty. Second, market connectedness is crucial for poor producers to take advantage of the opportunities offered by economic growth. Some regions and households by virtue of their sheer remoteness have been left behind when growth picks up. The availability of infrastructure (especially roads) and proximity to markets are crucial. And finally risks, such as rainfall variations and ill health are found to have profound effects on poverty outcomes, underscoring the significance of social protection in poverty reduction strategies in Africa.
Topic:
Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

88. Africa's Recovery from Conflict: Making Peace Work for the Poor

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The period 1990-2000 saw 19 major armed-conflicts in Africa, ranging from civil wars to the 1998-2000 war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Peace has been elusive, and the term 'post-conflict' is often a sad misnomer.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

89. Will HIPC Matter? The Debt Game and Donor Behaviour in Africa

Author:
Nancy Birdsall, Stijn Claessens, and Ishac Diwan
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we focus on the question: will the HIPC debt reduction programme help in the transformation of the development assistance business and change the rules of the 'debt game' in Africa? We concentrate on the donor and official creditor side, by exploring how the growing debt of African countries, over the last two decades, has affected the provision of new resources by the donor community. Our results indicate that if debt levels are reduced sufficiently in high debt countries, donors can shift from the current pattern of non-selectivity and defensive lending to a low debt regime, a regime that has in the past allowed selectivity in lending in relation to levels of poverty and quality of policy.
Topic:
Development and International Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

90. Gender and Education as Determinants of Household Poverty in Nigeria

Author:
Christiana E.E. Okojie
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper examines the linkages between gender of household heads, education and household poverty in Nigeria between 1980 and 1996. Data analyzed were obtained from four national consumer expenditure surveys conducted in Nigeria in 1980, 1985, 1992 and 1996 by the Federal Office of Statistics. Adjustments were made for price differentials over time and across regions of the country. However, only aggregated data for households were available. Per capita expenditure was used as the indicator of poverty, while the unit of analysis was the household. Two poverty lines were set: a moderate poverty line equal to two-thirds of mean per capita household expenditure, and a core poverty line equal to one-third of mean per capita expenditure. The Pa index proposed by Foster, Greer and Thorbecke was used to generate the headcount ratio as well as the depth and severity of poverty. Trends in inequality were analyzed using Gini coefficients and the Theil's index. Multivariate analysis was used to examine the relationships between gender, poverty and other household variables, including education, for all households as well as for subgroups of male-headed and female-headed households respectively.
Topic:
Education and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria