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131. Easy on the Stick: Why the United States Should Deconflict

Author:
Max Abrahms
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This week, hundreds of U.S. soldiers will participate in Juniper Cobra, a joint exercise with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to test the interoperability of U.S. Patriot and Israeli Arrow antiballistic missile systems. Such bilateral cooperation, coupled with reports that the Bush administration is considering providing Israel an additional $4 billion in military assistance, suggests that Washington is relying mainly on carrots to discourage an Israeli military response in the event of an Iraqi attack. These moves may explain Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's recent declaration, "We never had such cooperation in everything as we have with the current administration." Yet, precisely what form would this "cooperation" take if Iraq used weapons of mass destruction against Israel or otherwise inflicted mass casualties? Would Washington attempt to shape Israel's retaliatory options as it did during Operation Desert Storm?
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

132. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

133. From Acceptance to Implementation: Next Steps for the Roadmap

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel's cautious approval of the Roadmap opens a new phase in Middle East peacemaking. Although media focus will now turn to the next episode of high-level engagement by President George W. Bush -- perhaps at a Jordan- or Egypt-hosted regional summit in early June -- the real test for Washington and its Quartet colleagues comes in the implementation of the first phase of Roadmap requirements.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

134. Special Policy Form Report: Israel Goes to the Polls: An Election Preview

Author:
David Makovsky and Elie Rekhess
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 24, 2002, Elie Rekhess and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Rekhess is a senior associate at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University and director of the center's research program on Arab politics in Israel. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow at the Institute and contributing editor to U.S. News and World Report.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

135. Changing Rogue Regimes

Author:
Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
King Abdullah of Jordan's visit to Washington tomorrow offers the Bush administration an opportunity to clarify the relationship between regime change in Baghdad and progress in the Israel-Palestinian arena. Last Monday, the king told British prime minister Tony Blair that in light of the failure to move the peace process forward, military action against Iraq would open a Pandora's box.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

136. The Bush Speech vs. The Powell Mission: Assessing Washington's Twin and Competing Middle East Policies

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
04-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The best way to view the current situation is by recognizing that there are actually six wars going on simultaneously: 1) the Israeli-Palestinian war; 2) the war against terror; 3) the war against Saddam Husayn and the axis of evil; 4) the war within the Arab world between rulers and ruled; 5) the war among Israelis to determine Israel's future and a long-term strategy; and 6) the war for the heart and soul of the Bush administration's Middle East policy. These wars overlap, intersect, and converge, but they are not the same. One affects the other, usually in negative ways.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

137. Ecevit to Washington: Opportunities for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Mark Parris
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Visits by Turkish prime ministers to Washington have tended in years past to be low-profile events. With imagination and boldness on the American side, the January 16 meeting between President George W. Bush and Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit has the potential to be a watershed in a relationship that will affect vital U.S. interests well into the new century.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
America, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

138. The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two: Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech

Author:
David Makovsky and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was ostensibly in response to evidence of official PA complicity in acts of violence and terrorism that had become too compelling to ignore. Yet, the very next paragraph orders that the specific sanction applied — downgrading the status of the PLO office in Washington — be waived, citing U.S. national security interests. The end result of this diplomatic two-step is a change in declarative U.S. policy (i.e., for the first time, a formal statement of PA noncompliance), but no change in effective policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

139. Special Report: The Need for Accountability

Author:
Ziad Abu Amr
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 27, 2002, Ziad Abu Amr addressed a special Washington Institute seminar on reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). Mr. Abu Amr is chairman of the Political Committee of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). The following are excerpts from his presentation, as transcribed by the Institute. Citing a recent speech given by Yasir Arafat to the PLC on the importance of reform, Abu Amr said, "For the first time, he acknowledged that there were mistakes, but he takes responsibility, something I personally did not like because this meant from the very start, suppressing the process of accountability and actual reform. The idea of the president was, 'Okay, there were mistakes. We close the files. We start afresh.' That was not acceptable."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries

140. Special Report: The Rationale for Palestinian Reform

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 27, 2002, Khalil Shikaki addressed a special Washington Institute seminar on reforming the Palestinian Authority (PA). Dr. Shikaki is an associate professor of political science at Bir Zeit University and director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. The following are excerpts from his presentation, as transcribed by the Institute. "Initially, Palestinian interest [in reform] was basically an effort to address the issue of waste. . . . One year into the establishment of the Palestinian Authority [PA], the Palestinian comptroller issued a report which shocked everybody because the report basically said we have been wasting something like $250 million. . . . Waste, corruption, violation of human rights in Palestinian jails, security forces essentially ignoring any law and order, were all factors that became of serious interest in the early two or three years of the Palestinian Authority. . . . The reason for all of this is the fact that the Palestinians so far have failed to build strong institutions, structurally speaking. . . ."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Palestine, and Arab Countries