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112. Is All Quiet on Israel's Northern Front?
- Author:
- Zohar Palti
- Publication Date:
- 02-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- For much of the upcoming presidential election season, the United States will no doubt be preoccupied with domestic affairs on the one hand, and the postwar transition in Iraq on the other. Although Washington undoubtedly hopes for a quiet year in the Middle East, reality might bring less desirable results. In the Arab-Israeli arena, the most significant threat to regional stability (beyond Palestinian terrorism) is the Syria-Hizballah-Iran triangle. Hizballah and Syria appear to be reverting to their traditional pattern of ratcheting up terrorist activity whenever they feel they are being ignored. Unless an effort of some sort is made to halt such escalation, Israel's northern front will become the site of a broader conflict in which neither Israel nor the United States wants to become enmeshed at the moment.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, and Syria
113. Time to Shut Down the PKK: Why the United States and Turkey Should Work Together
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A U.S. government team is in Ankara today for talks with members of the Turkish military and intelligence services regarding the future of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. On September 2, 2003, the PKK, whose past attacks have cost Turkey 35,000 lives, renounced a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in February 2000. This is a dangerous development for three reasons. First, PKK violence could throw Turkey back into the political maelstrom of the 1990s, and it is in Washington's best interests to help preserve democratic Turkey's stability. Second, if the PKK attacks Turkey from U.S.-controlled northern Iraq, where it has an estimated 4,000-5,000 terrorists, this could put Washington and Ankara at loggerheads. Third, Turkey considers joint action against the PKK a sine qua non for U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq; it is unlikely that Ankara will send troops to Iraq unless the PKK issue is tackled. Given all of these reasons, the threat that the PKK poses to U.S. national interests is now at such a level that the organization is a legitimate target in the war on terror. Therefore, it is time to take action against the PKK.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East
114. Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
115. Shi'i Opposition in Iraq: An Emerging Challenge
- Author:
- Jeffrey White and Michael Schmidmayr
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Riots last week in Baghdad and Basra raised questions about Shi'i opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). While the Shi'i community has been relatively quiet compared to the Sunni population, elements of the Shi'i have adopted a consistent position against the CPA, occupation forces, and the appointed Governing Council. If they deem it necessary, those opposed to occupation have the means and motives to move to armed resistance, which would pose a substantial threat to the coalition.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia
116. European Union Reforms Diminish the Role of the Turkish Military: Ankara Knocking on Brussels' Door
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia
117. U.S.-Turkish Military Cooperation in Iraq? The Next Step
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A surprising summit meeting yesterday in Ankara involving members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, the Turkish General Staff, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization produced an agreement "in principle" to send Turkish "peacekeeping soldiers" to Iraq. From one perspective, if Turkish troops were deployed to Iraq, it could end the period of "strategic pause" between Washington and Ankara in place since March 1, when the Turkish parliament refused to open up a northern front for U.S. troops invading Iraq. There are still political obstacles to Turkish troop deployment -- such as a divided AKP and a fairly reluctant parliament. Moreover, Turkish law requires that parliament authorize sending troops abroad except in the case of international legislation (such as a UN resolution), or a call for help justifying such a deployment, and the Turkish parliament is in recess until October 1. But even before the AKP government determines its position on this issue, a major hurdle will have to be overcome: if American and Turkish troops are to work together in Iraq, they will first have to build mutual confidence, which -- once formidable -- seems to have quickly eroded over the past months. How can this be accomplished?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
118. Special Policy Forum Report: War on Terror -- A Perspective from Afghanistan
- Author:
- Abdullah Abdullah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On July 14, 2003, Afghan foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Before serving as foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah was heavily involved in discussions on Afghanistan's future government. Previously, he was chief spokesman and deputy foreign minister of the Northern Alliance. Born to a Pashtun father and Tajik mother, he is also a trained medical doctor, serving at the Sayyed Jamaluddin-i-Afghani Eye Hospital for Afghan refugees in Peshawar, Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries
119. Can Americans, Turks, and Kurds Get Along in Northern Iraq? A Vision
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Recently, the bitterness between Ankara and Washington over Turkey's failure to extend full support to the Iraq campaign culminated in a much-feared quagmire. On July 4, U.S. Army forces detained eleven Turkish special operations troops in Sulaymaniyah, northern Iraq, possibly based on Iraqi Kurdish intelligence that they were planning to harm Kurdish officials in Kirkuk. Fortunately, no shots were fired and no one was hurt in the incident. Still, the fact remains that U.S. troops arrested soldiers from Turkey, a NATO ally viewed as one of America's staunchest friends until late 2002. Moreover, the Turks were allegedly conspiring against Kurds, America's best friends in Iraq. How to interpret this unpleasant episode? What can be done to prevent similar incidents in the future? Most important, can the United States and Turkey move forward in northern Iraq?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
120. Reading the Popular Mood in Iran
- Author:
- Patrick Clawson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual elected leadership of President Muhammad Khatami?
- Topic:
- Security and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries