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421. The Quartet Roadmap, Take Two: Still at Odds with Bush's June 24 Speech

Author:
David Makovsky and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
12-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last Friday, while official Washington was still enjoying the Thanksgiving holiday break, the White House stealthily issued Presidential Determination 2003-04, whose first paragraph instructs the State Department to sanction the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) for noncompliance with obligations stemming from the Oslo Accords. This was ostensibly in response to evidence of official PA complicity in acts of violence and terrorism that had become too compelling to ignore. Yet, the very next paragraph orders that the specific sanction applied — downgrading the status of the PLO office in Washington — be waived, citing U.S. national security interests. The end result of this diplomatic two-step is a change in declarative U.S. policy (i.e., for the first time, a formal statement of PA noncompliance), but no change in effective policy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, and Arab Countries

422. Sharon Leads Netanyahu Before the Likud Primary

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Thursday, an estimated 300,000 members of Israel's Likud Party will head to the polls and decide whether they want Prime Minister Ariel Sharon or Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as their party leader. This contest has special importance because current polls show that the Likud winner is likely to emerge victorious in the January 28, 2003, national elections as well. According to a November 22 Yediot Ahronot poll, Likud is outpacing Labor by a sizable 38- to 21-seat projected margin in the 120-seat Knesset.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

423. Israel's Labor Party Likely to Choose New Face

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, approximately 100,000 members of the Israeli Labor Party will vote for their new leader. The winner will serve as the party's standard-bearer for the national elections on January 28, 2003. Barring an unforeseen turnaround, the winner of tomorrow's contest will be Haifa mayor Amram Mitzna. Binyamin Ben-Eliezer — Mitzna's main rival and, until his recent resignation from the Sharon government, Israel's defense minister — is reduced to hoping that he can deprive Mitzna of the required 40 percent needed in a three-person race and force a December 3 runoff. Even under that scenario, however, Mitzna is expected to win. His popularity has grown over the past week as key supporters of the race's third candidate, veteran politico Haim Ramon, have defected to his side in the hopes of blocking Ben-Eliezer's reelection. Polls of Labor members currently show Mitzna ahead of Ben-Eliezer by a 43 percent to 26 percent margin, with Ramon trailing both at 12 percent.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

424. New Governments in Israel/Palestinian Authority: Collapse of Israeli Unity; Return of Arafat Old-Timers

Author:
David Makovsky and Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israel is reconfiguring its government and the Palestinian Authority (PA) has established a new cabinet this week. The Israeli-Palestinian violence of the last two years is unlikely to be transformed into a peace process as a result of this week's developments. This is due to a variety of factors ranging from the fact that PA chairman Yasir Arafat beat back efforts by reformers made over the summer and pointedly dropped his security chief who professed a commitment to reform. On the Israeli track, the new Israeli government's room to maneuver will be constrained by the lack of change on the Palestinian side, as well as a set of domestic and foreign considerations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

425. The Road Not to Be Taken: Assessing the Quartet Roadmap for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During his visit to Washington last week, Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon was reportedly handed a forty-three-point document titled "Elements of a Performance-Based Road Map to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict." This document, the product of intensive consultation between the four members of the Middle East peace process Quartet (the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations), offers the most ambitious and detailed plan yet to restart Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking after more than two years of terror and violence.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

426. U.S.-Israeli Consultation on Iraq Likely to be Key in Bush-Sharon Meeting

Author:
David Makovksy
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Tomorrow, October 16, President George W. Bush hosts Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon. Although the two have met frequently in the year and a half since they assumed office, this session is likely to be different from previous encounters. Undoubtedly, they will discuss the situation with the Palestinians; this will be their first meeting since Bush's June 24, 2002, speech calling for a new Palestinian leadership capable of establishing a peaceful and democratic Palestine alongside Israel, perhaps as soon as 2005. The main focus of this White House discussion, however, will likely be the impact that a U.S. attack on Iraq would have on the U.S.-Israel relationship.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

427. Special Policy Forum Report: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: What Next?

Author:
Shaul Mofaz
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In September 2002, Lt. Gen. (ret.) Shaul Mofaz, the most recent chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), addressed The Washington Institute's special policy forum. General Mofaz is a visiting military scholar at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

428. Special Policy Forum Report: Israel's Peace Strategy

Author:
Danny Ayalon
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 6, 2002, Danny Ayalon addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Ayalon is Israel's recently appointed ambassador to Washington, D.C. Before assuming this post, he served as foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and as deputy foreign policy advisor to Prime Ministers Ehud Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

429. Special Policy Forum Report: Assessing Palestinian-Israeli Violence: Two Years On

Author:
David Makovsky and Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
10-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 17, 2002, Khalil Shikaki and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Shikaki is an associate professor of political science at Bir Zeit University, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, a contributing editor for U.S. News and World Report, and an adjunct lecturer at Johns Hopkins University's Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

430. The Wazzani Water Idspute: More Tension Along the Israel-Lebanon Border

Author:
Gal Luft
Publication Date:
09-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
According to the September 17, 2002, issue of Ha'aretz, a delegation of American water experts toured the Wazzani River in southern Lebanon on September 16 to review Lebanese government projects aimed at directing water to nearby villages. Ever since the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) unilaterally withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, relations between Israel and Lebanon have been tense, a result of the Lebanese government's tolerance of Hizballah attacks on Israeli targets along the border.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries