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361. Special Policy Forum Report: The Bush Administration's Busy Year in the Middle East -- A Preview of 2003

Author:
Robert Satloff, Dennis Ross, E.J. Dionne, and Fred Barnes
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Dilemmas for U.S. Middle East policy will arise in the immediate post-Saddam aftermath. Foremost will be America's preoccupation with stabilizing Iraq and transforming its new government into a democracy. Vague at present is whether U.S.-led forces will focus on existing institutions (e.g., the Iraqi military) or build new ones to achieve these goals. Such decisions will affect the degree and nature of Iraq's transformation, and the new regime's composition could be significantly different if the United States were to depend on a reformed Iraqi military to promote stability. Moreover, Iraqi transformation corresponds directly to a region-wide transformation, because increased efforts to transform Iraq with a broad-based, representative government will send signals of political reform to Iraq's neighbors. U.S. policy must stand ready to assist other Middle Eastern regimes in their transition to more responsible governments that offer their people hope and the prospect for change.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

362. Ansar Al-Islam: Iraq's Al-Qaeda Connection

Author:
Jonathan Schanzer
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Ansar al-Islam, an al-Qaeda affiliate active in Iraqi Kurdistan since September 2001, is a prototype of America's enemies in the "war on terror." The group serves as a testament to the global spread of al-Qaeda affiliates, achieved through exploitation of weak central authorities and a utilitarian willingness to work with seemingly differing ideologies for a common cause. Lengthy reports on Ansar have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times, and Kurdish leaders have given Washington a plethora of intelligence on the group. Nevertheless, Ansar has yet to appear on official U.S. terrorism lists. Meanwhile, political complexities would make military action against the group difficult, at best. Hence, this small force of 650 fighters is a textbook example of the ongoing challenges posed by the war on terror.
Topic:
Security, Islam, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, New York, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Kurdistan

363. Criminal Enterprise in the Political Economy of Middle Eastern Terrorism

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
At least five terrorist suspects who entered the United States illegally from Canada during the Christmas holidays are now the subjects of an international manhunt. The suspects' international travel was apparently facilitated by Pakistani criminal elements engaged in the production of false documents, including forged visas and passports. The nexus between criminal and terrorist activity is not new. Indeed, international terrorism is facilitated and financed by an array of states, groups, fronts, individuals, businesses, banks, criminal enterprises, and nominally humanitarian organizations. Since the attacks of September 11, experts and decisionmakers have focused much attention on charitable and humanitarian organizations, as well as official and unofficial banking systems in the network of terrorist financing. The political economy of terrorism, however, relies just as heavily on legitimate businesses and, increasingly, criminal activity.
Topic:
Security, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Taliban, Arab Countries, Syria, and North America

364. Ban Hamas in Europe

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Jeff Cary
Publication Date:
09-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 25, 2003, shortly after the initiation of the Quartet Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace, President George W. Bush urged European Union (EU) leaders to take "swift, decisive action against [Palestinian] terror groups such as Hamas, to cut off their funding and support." Much of the funding received by Hamas's military wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades, is provided by donations to the organization's social and political activities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

365. Hizballah's West Bank Foothold

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Last week, Hizballah drastically escalated its activity along Israel's northern border, ending seven months of relative calm there. Yet, the assault on Israeli positions in the Shebaa Farms area and the cross-border shelling of northern Israeli towns pale in comparison to the potential danger posed by the terrorist cells and political opposition Hizballah is now operating -- with Iranian funding and oversight -- in the northern West Bank.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

366. Is Hizballah Resuming the Offensive?

Author:
Yoram Yoffe and Jason O'Connor
Publication Date:
08-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
After months of restraint following the double shock of U.S. military victories in Afghanistan and Iraq, Hizballah resumed action against Israel today, firing mortal shells and missiles at the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) along the Israel-Lebanon border. Changes in the regional geopolitical environment and recent statements by the organization's leadership suggest that Hizballah may also be preparing to carry out new terror operations, while the killing of a senior Hizballah military official last weekend by a car bomb may have provided the pretext for today's attack. Washington needs to closely follow these developments and engage in preemptive diplomacy to prevent new deterioration in the Arab-Israeli conflict, at a time when there is reason for cautious optimism on the Israeli-Palestinian track.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arab Countries

367. Special Policy Forum Report: Hudna (Truce) Accord -- Getting the Roadmap on the Road?

Author:
Dennis Ross and David Makovisky
Publication Date:
07-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 2, 2003, Dennis Ross and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross is the director of the Institute. He served as U.S. point person on the Middle East peace process under the first Bush administration and both Clinton administrations. Mr. Makovsky is a senior fellow at the Institute and adjunct lecturer of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

368. Terrorism As A Strategic Threat to Israel

Author:
Yoram Yoffe
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Many Israelis and Palestinians once again have a sense of hope, following President George W. Bush's meeting with Arab leaders at Sharm al-Shaykh and with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas (known as Abu Mazen) in Aqaba. This new hope in both societies poses an existential threat to terrorist organizations operating in the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Once Israel is no longer viewed as an enemy, there is no clear justification for the existence of such organizations. Hence, it should come as no surprise that these organizations are trying to escalate operations against Israel in an attempt to derail any peace initiatives. In the past, suicide operations undertaken by these organizations have been quite successful in achieving this objective; this should not be allowed to happen again.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries

369. Between Hudna and Crackdown: Assessing the Record of Hamas Ceasefires

Author:
Shoshanah Haberman
Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent days, both Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat and prime minister Mahmoud Abbas have said they expect an agreement on a Hamas ceasefire (or hudna) to be announced soon. According to Abbas, Hamas -- in Arabic, "the Islamic Resistance Movement" -- "will commit to halting terrorism, both within the green line and in the territories." As longtime Palestinian minister Saeb Erekat explained, Abbas needs a ceasefire agreement to jumpstart negotiations for Palestinian statehood. Abbas, said Erekat, "will insist on this declaration [of a ceasefire] because that's the key . . . for him to go out and tell the Palestinians, 'Look, we've got the Israeli government to recognize the Palestinian state, [so] we need two years in a peaceful, meaningful peace process.'"
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries

370. Beyond Summit Pageantry: Requirements for Bush's Middle East Success

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
05-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President George W. Bush will be holding three summits next week that will have a strong Middle East orientation. A G-8 summit will followed by a meeting with Arab leaders in Sharm al-Shaykh, Egypt, and a summit of Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Aqaba, Jordan, representing a new phase in the administration's approach to the Middle East.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arab Countries