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161. PolicyWatch #1265: Mr. Brown Comes to America: The U.S.-British Summit

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 29-30, just over a month after taking over from Tony Blair, new British prime minister Gordon Brown will meet with President Bush at Camp David. It will be the first opportunity for direct, substantive discussions between the two leaders and is widely expected to be a difficult summit. Brown is seen as wanting to establish a very different -- and cooler -- relationship with Bush. Although the effect of this public distancing on longstanding U.S.-British cooperation is uncertain at the moment, the change in substance and style will no doubt have implications for current policies in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the way the two leaders relate in the event of future crises.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, and Europe

162. PolicyWatch #1263: The Changing and Expanding al-Qaeda Threat

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 17, Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell released declassified key judgments from a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on "The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland." According to the NIE -- which represents the intelligence community's collective view on a given issue -- al-Qaeda still has both the capability and intent to conduct an attack inside the United States and will increase its efforts to place operatives in the country. Terrorists coming from Europe pose a particularly serious risk. Yet, in addition to remaining a major threat to the United States, al-Qaeda has made clear through recent statements and actions that it poses a serious threat to many U.S. allies as well -- and that its definition of success is no longer limited to an attack on U.S. soil.
Topic:
Intelligence and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

163. PolicyWatch #1261: Reading Between the Lines of President Bush's July 16 Address

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
President Bush's July 16 address on the Middle East peace process was a mix of the old and the new, offering neither an unequivocal reaffirmation of past approaches nor a thoroughly novel direction for Arab-Israeli diplomacy in the wake of Hamas's coup in Gaza.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Gaza

164. PolicyWatch #1260: British Counterterrorism Efforts: Implications for the United States

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
British police have been praised for their speedy and effective efforts in thwarting terrorist attacks this month in London and Glasgow, as well as for the arrest and subsequent prosecution of four men who attempted to bomb the London transport network on July 21, 2005. Today, those bombers were each sentenced to a minimum of forty years in prison. (Two alleged accomplices, on whose guilt the jury could not agree, face a retrial.) But details of the cases and official comments suggest that Britain's vulnerabilities to al-Qaeda-style terrorism remain acute and could lead to tension with the United States.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and London

165. PolicyWatch #1259: AFRICOM: A New American Military Command

Author:
Gabe Scheinmann
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
This month, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates will appoint a commander for the newly created U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). Set to launch sometime this fall and become fully operational with 1,000 American personnel by September 2008, AFRICOM will be responsible for all African countries except Egypt. Although no African state poses a direct threat to the United States, Washington is concerned about the growth of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups throughout the continent. Africa has the fastest population growth rate in the world, and several of its countries, such as Nigeria, Angola, Libya, and Sudan, are important sources of crude oil.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Population
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Sudan, Libya, and Angola

166. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

167. PolicyWatch #1253: Navigating the Sudan Sanctions Regime

Author:
Michael Jacobson
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On May 29, 2007, the Bush administration unveiled a long-anticipated package of sanctions against Sudan, designating thirty Sudanese companies for their ties to the regime of President Omar al-Bashir, as well as two government officials, a rebel leader, and a transportation company for their role in the Darfur genocide. In announcing the targeted companies and individuals, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stated that Washington was "calling attention to their horrific acts" and attempting to "further isolate them from the international community." Although these sanctions do not impose significant additional legal restrictions on business dealings with Sudan, they could nevertheless have some impact if they are effectively implemented.
Topic:
Genocide and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Washington, and Sudan

168. PolicyWatch #1244: The PKK, PJAK, and Iran: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Relations

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Zeynep Eroglu
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 8, a day after reports that Turkish troops had crossed into northern Iraq to pursue members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Iranian aircraft bombed the camps of the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), also in northern Iraq. PJAK, which operates in the mountains of northern Iraq and adjacent areas of Iran, has around 3,000 members. Analysts describe the group as the Iranian branch of the PKK, which has been carrying out attacks on Turkish military and civilian targets for decades and is on the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organizations. PJAK insists that it is distinct from the PKK, but interviews with its leaders and members, along with a look at its history, suggest that the two groups have similar ideologies and methodologies. They also share leadership and membership, in addition to operating in overlapping areas. Given that both Turkey and Iran view PJAK as a threat, the group poses unique challenges to U.S.-Turkish relations.
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

169. PolicyWatch #1243: Special Forum Report: When Diplomacy Failed: Lessons Learned from June 1967

Author:
Dennis Ross, Samuel Lewis, and Wendy Chamberlin
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The historical record has made it increasingly clear that in the May-June 1967 Middle East conflict, public assurances from world powers -- or the lack thereof -- greatly influenced the decisionmaking of regional leaders. Specifically, Soviet encouragement of Egypt -- both public and private -- played a large role in influencing Egyptian chief of staff and military commander Abdul Hakim Amer as he brought President Gamal Abdul Nasser to the brink of war with Israel. At the same time, however, the U.S. government under President Lyndon Johnson extended no parallel public assurances to Israel. This absence of commitment from a major foreign power or the UN in a moment of crisis affected the mindset of Israel's policymakers whenever they faced national security dilemmas thereafter, leading them to take many unilateral actions in subsequent years.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt

170. Iran's 'Unacceptable' Bomb: Deterrence and Prevention in the Age of Terror

Author:
David Makovsky, Michael Eisenstadt, Mehdi Khalaji, Dennis Ross, Neil Crompton, Shimon Peres, Robert Kimmitt, Kurt Campbell, Sami al-Faraj, and Charles Hill
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
I would like to discuss with you tonight the new and important role of the Treasury Department in combating national security threats. It is hard to imagine that we would have had a conversation like this when The Washington Institute held its first Soref Symposium event in 1988. It is only in recent years that the challenges of counterterrorism and counterproliferation have moved beyond the traditional province of foreign affairs, defense, intelligence, and law enforcement. Treasury and other finance ministries around the globe have evolved since September 11, and the world of finance now plays a critical role in combating international security threats.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and War
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East