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1. The Manchester Attack: Assessing Threats to Major Events and Soft Targets

Author:
The Soufan Group
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
From Paris to Istanbul, sports and entertainment venues, to include stadiums, convention centers and arenas – often easily accessed and filled with large groups of people – have become increasingly attractive targets. While there is a history of targeting stadiums around the world, the increased prevalence of these attacks, along with new tactics, may forecast future activity that requires both public and private sector stakeholders to examine existing efforts and implement new measures to enhance safety and security
Topic:
Intelligence and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Britain

2. Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign fighters and the threat of returnees

Author:
Richard Barrett
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
As the so-called Islamic State (IS) loses territorial control of its caliphate, there is little doubt that the group or something similar will survive the worldwide campaign against it so long as the conditions that promoted its growth remain. Its appeal will outlast its demise, and while it will be hard to assess the specific threat posed by foreign fighters and returnees, they will present a challenge to many countries for years to come.
Topic:
International Affairs and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Beyond the Caliphate

Author:
Richard Barrett
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
As the so-called Islamic State (IS) loses territorial control of its caliphate, there is little doubt that the group or something similar will survive the worldwide campaign against it. As long as the conditions that allowed the group to exist in the first place remain, IS or something like it will survive. The threat will mutate…
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Libya Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse

Author:
The Soufan Group
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Following the failure to form a unity government in Libya, the country will continue to face monumental hurdles to stabilization. • Existing divides between the East and West of Libya have been exacerbated by the security situation in the country. • The absence of rule of law and the high levels of violence in Libya—when combined with the proliferation of weapons—have allowed violent extremist groups such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to thrive.
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Libya

5. Libya, Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse

Author:
The Soufan Group
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
COMMENTARY NEWS ARTICLES INTELBRIEFS TV & RADIO OPINION PIECES PUBLICATIONS Libya, Extremism and the Consequences of Collapse January 27, 2016 RESEARCH TSG_Libya Report_cover Libya Extremism and the Consequences of CollapseJanuary 27, 2016.In a new, in-depth report, The Soufan Group (TSG) examines the security implications of continued instability in Libya. Four years after the revolution that toppled Muammar Qadhafi, the security situation in Libya remains volatile. The lack of centralized control has allowed criminal and violent extremist groups to flourish, including al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Continued instability in Libya will only see these criminal and violent extremist elements entrench themselves further. The expansion of these networks poses a serious security threat to the region, as well as to the broader international community. .
Topic:
International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Boko Haram and Escalating Regional Terror

Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
• A multinational joint task force consisting of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, and Niger has driven Boko Haram from key territorial strongholds in northeastern Nigeria; on June 18, the Chadian military conducted airstrikes against six Boko Haram bases in Nigeria • But the terror group continues to launch deadly, near-daily attacks throughout the region—including on June 15 with twin suicide bombings in Chad—using guerrilla tactics rather than conventional warfare • Nigeria’s newly-inaugurated president, Muhammadu Buhari, has moved quickly to support regional counter-Boko Haram efforts, insisting on Nigerian leadership in the task force and pledging $100 million in financial support • Despite the nascent successes of the joint task force, Islamic State gains in North Africa and, in particular, Libya, could impact the flow of weapons and fighters into Nigeria; Boko Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in March of this year.
Topic:
Development, Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

7. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State in Libya

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The Islamic State has been moving aggressively to exploit the chaos of Libya since last summer, with profound risks for the Mediterranean region and beyond Libya is a perfect breeding ground for an expanded Islamic State, with large amounts of heavy weaponry, systemic lawlessness, a divided population, and sustained armed conflict The group has formed three active and capable groups in Libya-in Tripoli, Fezzan, and Barqa-all of which have conducted deadly attacks in recent months The phenomenon of Islamic State affiliates-beginning in the summer of 2014, before which the group was entirely focused on Iraq and Syria-is actually in the tradition of its arch-rival al-Qaeda the presence and power of the Islamic State in Libya will likely increase as conditions in Syria and Iraq deteriorate for the group, and conditions in Libya continue to worsen.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Iraq, Libya, and Syria

8. Saudi Arabia: The New Power Structure

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
King Salman has confirmed his reputation as a religious conservative through the reappointment of traditionalist clerics However he has also made some effort to streamline the Saudi government Recent changes have given considerable power to two men from the next generation: King Salman's son and his nephew The result may be good for hard security measures, but less certain for the soft measures necessary for Saudi Arabia to weather the storm.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Islam, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

9. TSG IntelBrief: Responding to the Islamic State

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
The Islamic State's murder of Jordanian hostage Lt Moaz al-Kasasbeh was both a message to the group's fighters that it can counter the coalition's relentless airstrikes as well as an offensive move designed to provoke a high-profile overreaction The air campaign against the Islamic State has been relentless while at the same time has receded from the headlines-a double blow to the group in that it suffers the losses but doesn't benefit from the attendant spectacle The drawn-out 'negotiations' over this past month-while the hostage was already dead-were likely intended to sow division and tension in Jordan, and draw attention to the issue as long as possible before the gruesome finale While Jordan is understandably enraged and will have to strike back, the most effective response might be an escalation that continues to kill the group's fighters away from the headlines.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

10. TSG IntelBrief: The Islamic State and Savagery

Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Soufan Group
Abstract:
Like a page out of the 2004 extremist manifesto "Management of Savagery," the Islamic State has tried to goad the international community into near-sighted reactions without long-term approaches by highlighting the barbarity of its executions of hostages This tactic has thus far failed to ignite the overreaction (outside of press reporting) of Western powers, leaving the group without an important recruitment and incitement tool The Islamic State needs consistent replenishment of fear to overcome its inherently terrible local governance, and so it depends on shocking savagery to serve as both its recruitment magnet and opposition suppression As the group encounters less and less Westerners, given the danger of their presence in the region, it will find increasingly fewer ways to incite the 'us-versus-them' battle it needs to survive.
Topic:
Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia