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101. Not Beyond Limits: The Prospects of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Author:
Pál Dunay
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created in 2001, and it is the first regional integration attempt in the post - Soviet space that has spread beyond the boundaries of the former Soviet Union, and has included the People's Republic of China. Since its inception the organization has gone through breathtaking developments, simultaneously broadening and deepening its agenda. Its international surrounding has also changed fundamentally. Following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 the strategic importance of the area where the SCO has been operating increased enormously, with particular reference to Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the last two being SCO members. The organization's special relationship with Afghanistan is another factor that has contributed to the SCO's increasing stature. The importance of natural resources (primarily oil and gas) has steadily increased, and this is likely to be a prolonged point of contention between all the major powers, among others, in Central Asia.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, and Israel

102. Cooperating for Peace: The Challenges and Promises of Partnerships in Peace Operations

Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the over two decades since UN peacekeepers won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1988, the mechanisms and means for providing peacekeeping “supply” where it is needed continue to bedevil policy makers and those on the ground tasked with the difficult job of international intervention. Today, the peacekeeping agenda is packed with concerns such as the protection of civilians, peacekeeping when there is no peace to keep, managing spoilers, balancing humanitarian, peacebuilding and development imperatives, and the realization that vulnerability to relapse into conflict means that peacekeepers may be required for years and indeed decades to come.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, United Nations, and Peacekeeping

103. Kyrgyzstan's Regime Change: Causes and Possible Consequences

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On 10 June 2010 in the southern Kyrgyz city of Osh violence erupted, spreading to Jalalabad two days later, with reports of armed gangs, inter - ethnic violence, rape, and stampedes at border crossings into Uzbekistan. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as well as Rosa Otunbayeva the acting interim government Prime Minister and President, stated that over 200 people had been killed, over 2000 wounded, with 400,000 (8% of the Kyrgyz population) displaced – 300,000 internally, 100,000 as refugees into Uzbekistan's neighbouring Andizhan province. China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Germany and Russia amongst others, airlifted their foreign nationals to Bishkek and beyond (see Map: Kyrgyzstan's Complex Emergency).
Topic:
Political Violence and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan

104. Safety and Security in the Biotechnological Age

Author:
Marc Finaud and Sunjay Chandiramani
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In many ways, the world is at the beginning of what some are already calling the “Biological Century.” Discoveries in the life sciences have the potential to reshape the worlds of health, food production, energy, and climate change, to produce new fuels, heat- and drought-resistant food crops, and to eradicate deadly diseases. But biotechnological discoveries also have a dark side – potential immense harm may be caused through accidental or intentional release of designer pathogens. The globe is also facing a myriad of natural biological threats. Fifteen million people die each year of deadly infectious diseases, with new ones emerging every year, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Avian Flu. In a world of 700 million international air passengers yearly, and almost all on flights shorter than the incubation period of infectious diseases, national health has become only as safe as global health.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United Nations

105. Sanctions and Weapons of Mass Destruction in International Relations

Author:
Masahiko Asada, Bernard Sitt, Anthony Aust, Mikael Eriksson, Edward Ifft, and Ambassador Arend Meerburg
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
How best to prevent or respond without force to unacceptable political behaviour in international relations has long been a difficult problem, and especially as regards violations of agreements and norms related to international security.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions

106. A Bright Future for International Law?

Author:
Steven Haines
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
During the period of the Bush presidency, from 2001-2009, there was much concern expressed, both domestically within the United States and internationally, about Washington's apparently cavalier attitude towards international law. 1 Much of this – though by no means all – was prompted by the US reaction to the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington (the so-called 'global war on terrorism'), and the decision in 2002/3 to opt for regime change in Iraq. For many commentators it seemed as though US policy in that period provided solid evidence that law within the international system was of little influence in the face of determined power. This perception reflects realist assumptions about the pre-eminence of national interest and power as determinants of policy. Of particular moment is the power of those states that fall within the category of 'great power' – and 'superpower' has a special quality all its own.
Topic:
Economics, International Law, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States

107. Building Partnerships in Peace Operations: The Limits of the Global/Regional Approach

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
A consensus seems to exist on the need to tackle contemporary intra-state conflicts through a multiplicity of actors who display different comparative advantages and levels of expertise. For the United Nations as well as for the regional organisations that, since the end of the Cold War, have emerged as crisis management actors, working together is the way forward. The UN and the EU run or have run simultaneous operations in Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chad) and Kosovo and have largely institutionalised their cooperation; the UN took over operations initially deployed by the African Union in West Africa and in Burundi and the two institutions have created a hybrid UN-AU mission in Darfur; the EU is assisting the AU in the building-up of its Stand-by Force and finances AU operations; the EU, the OSCE and NATO have for some time shared the burden of security management in the Balkans. As noted in a UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) document, “reinforcing interoperability with key partners […] can enhance cooperation and ensure that we maximise finite global peacekeeping resources”. Indeed, given the scope of crisis management needs, not least the UN overstretch, burden-sharing has become an imperative and its corollary, inter-institutional partnerships, equally central. Yet, the establishment of partnerships among international institutions is facing important political and technical difficulties that make the prospect for an interlocking system unlikely.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Globalization, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, Regional Cooperation, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kosovo, and United Nations

108. Russia's Strategic Choice

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of the global financial crisis, a debate over necessary policy responses morphed into something much more profound and fundamental – the sustainability of Russia's current governance model and its preferred longer-term modernization paradigm. On 10 September 2009 President Medvedev published a remarkably frank article entitled 'Russia, Forward!' This article noted that Russia's governance model appeared to be failing, proving vulnerable in the face of the global financial crisis. President Medvedev himself criticized Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on raw materials, as well as its 'inefficient economy, a semi-Soviet social sphere, an immature democracy, negative demographic trends, unstable Caucasus.' In his 12 November 2009 Message to the Federal Assembly, Medvedev elaborated further on this theme: Russia could either modernize or deteriorate; modernization would provide a touchstone for 'how we can overcome our chronic backwardness, dependence on raw materials exports, and corruption'. On 3 February 2010, the Institute for Contemporary Development (INSOR) published a report that received widespread coverage entitled 21st Century Russia: The Image of Tomorrow We Want. As President Medvedev had created INSOR in 2008 to give him independent advice on economic and foreign policy and sat as a trustee on its board, this report received widespread publicity. Such publicity was magnified as the report touched just about every exposed nerve by advocating that Russia should join NATO, end censorship, abolish the state security service, and adopt a Western-style democracy, entailing the separation of the courts from the state, of the legislative branch from the executive, horizontal modernization (characterized as the debureaucratization of the vertical top-down corrupt, over-regulated economic process)3. Without change, Russia faced a strategic cul de sac that leads to slow and steady strategic marginalization: 'In a few years, when it turns out that Russia has nothing to boast about except export supplies of raw materials at prices that are dictated to us, we will be exporting people. And, not only the cleverest like now, but any workers, who are in demand in Europe, as is happening today in Latvia, for example. I frankly do not know what Russia should do in this situation. This problem will be one of the main ones for the president who is elected in 2012
Topic:
Democratization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Latvia

109. The Gstaad Process: The West's Relations with Russia: Towards a Cold Peace?

Author:
Jon Strandquist
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
At the 2008 Gstaad Process conference, the discussion of securityrelated issues central to West-Russia relations focused on four broadly defined areas: global security, energy security, missile defence, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

110. Central Asia Seminars 1st GCSP-OSCE Academy Seminar: "Central Asia 2008"

Author:
Selbi Hanova
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On 22-23 September 2008, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Academy, Bishkek, organised a forum for security policy experts from Eurasia, East and South-East Asia, Europe and the United States, to analyse and discuss the continued interaction of key regional security dynamics and functional issues in Central Asia over 2008. A series of panels identified major emergent themes, linkages and trends, and reflected on their strategic impact and security policy implications. The focus included panels on the Afghan factor and Georgian crisis in Central Asian security politics, energy geopolitics, the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the region, as well as US and Russian policies towards Central Asia. The seminar highlighted and analysed some of the key security tendencies and practical aspects of security in the region including emerging trends and themes, their interplay and contradictions as well as their likely strategic influence and consequences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia