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11. South Caucasus: What Prospects after Twenty Years of "Managed Instability"?

Author:
Alain Guidetti
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years after the fall of the Soviet Union and the independence of the three Caucasian Republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, the region remains characterized by a state of “managed instability” due to the absence of solutions to the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh) and between Georgia and Russia (over territorial issues and political differences). Negotiation mechanisms aimed at solving these issues exist (since 1992 for Nagorno-Karabakh, and since 1991 for Georgia), but they do not appear to produce meaningful results, raising questions on the purpose of these mechanisms and the future of the region beyond the lasting status quo. A movement toward deeper instability in the region, which cannot be excluded, would pose a direct security threat to Europe, as well as to Russia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Cold War, Territorial Disputes, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

12. Beyond Geopolitics: Common Challenges, Joint Solutions?

Author:
Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The 2010 Gstaad Process meeting was held in Switzerland from 16-18 September. Entitled “Beyond Geopolitics – Common Challenges, Joint Solutions?”, the event was organised by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) with the financial support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA). Additional partners and contributors were the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies in Monterey (California) and the PIR Center (Moscow).
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

13. Why Didn't the Global Economic and Financial Crisis Have More of an Impact on International Migration?

Author:
Khalid Koser
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Economic and financial crises have always impacted on international migration patterns, processes, and policies. The Great Depression (1929- 33) resulted in massive repatriations of Latin Americans from the United States and the introduction of highly restrictive immigration policies in a number of industrialized countries, including France and Canada. The Oil Crisis (1973) resulted in severe restrictions on labour migration, a concomitant growth in asylum applications and irregular migration in Europe, and the emergence of new flows of labour migration to emerging industrial centres in Asia and Latin America. As a result of the Asian financial crisis (1997-99) several South-East Asian countries introduced policies of national preference and sought to expel migrant workers. The Russian financial crisis (1998) accelerated rates of emigration from Russia, in particular of Russian Jews and the highly-skilled. The gravity of the Latin American financial crisis (1998- 2002) also resulted in a significant exodus, in particular from Argentina.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and Latin America

14. Russia's Strategic Choice

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of the global financial crisis, a debate over necessary policy responses morphed into something much more profound and fundamental – the sustainability of Russia's current governance model and its preferred longer-term modernization paradigm. On 10 September 2009 President Medvedev published a remarkably frank article entitled 'Russia, Forward!' This article noted that Russia's governance model appeared to be failing, proving vulnerable in the face of the global financial crisis. President Medvedev himself criticized Russia's 'humiliating' dependence on raw materials, as well as its 'inefficient economy, a semi-Soviet social sphere, an immature democracy, negative demographic trends, unstable Caucasus.' In his 12 November 2009 Message to the Federal Assembly, Medvedev elaborated further on this theme: Russia could either modernize or deteriorate; modernization would provide a touchstone for 'how we can overcome our chronic backwardness, dependence on raw materials exports, and corruption'. On 3 February 2010, the Institute for Contemporary Development (INSOR) published a report that received widespread coverage entitled 21st Century Russia: The Image of Tomorrow We Want. As President Medvedev had created INSOR in 2008 to give him independent advice on economic and foreign policy and sat as a trustee on its board, this report received widespread publicity. Such publicity was magnified as the report touched just about every exposed nerve by advocating that Russia should join NATO, end censorship, abolish the state security service, and adopt a Western-style democracy, entailing the separation of the courts from the state, of the legislative branch from the executive, horizontal modernization (characterized as the debureaucratization of the vertical top-down corrupt, over-regulated economic process)3. Without change, Russia faced a strategic cul de sac that leads to slow and steady strategic marginalization: 'In a few years, when it turns out that Russia has nothing to boast about except export supplies of raw materials at prices that are dictated to us, we will be exporting people. And, not only the cleverest like now, but any workers, who are in demand in Europe, as is happening today in Latvia, for example. I frankly do not know what Russia should do in this situation. This problem will be one of the main ones for the president who is elected in 2012
Topic:
Democratization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Latvia

15. The Gstaad Process: The West's Relations with Russia: Towards a Cold Peace?

Author:
Jon Strandquist
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
At the 2008 Gstaad Process conference, the discussion of securityrelated issues central to West-Russia relations focused on four broadly defined areas: global security, energy security, missile defence, and nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

16. Central Asia Seminars 1st GCSP-OSCE Academy Seminar: "Central Asia 2008"

Author:
Selbi Hanova
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
On 22-23 September 2008, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Academy, Bishkek, organised a forum for security policy experts from Eurasia, East and South-East Asia, Europe and the United States, to analyse and discuss the continued interaction of key regional security dynamics and functional issues in Central Asia over 2008. A series of panels identified major emergent themes, linkages and trends, and reflected on their strategic impact and security policy implications. The focus included panels on the Afghan factor and Georgian crisis in Central Asian security politics, energy geopolitics, the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the region, as well as US and Russian policies towards Central Asia. The seminar highlighted and analysed some of the key security tendencies and practical aspects of security in the region including emerging trends and themes, their interplay and contradictions as well as their likely strategic influence and consequences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia

17. Operationalising Mediation Support: Lessons from Mediation Experiences in the OSCE Area

Author:
Miriam Fugfugosh
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The OSCE area is marked by a number of common characteristics that define the overall context for mediation efforts. Some of the main commonalities highlighted during the Consultation were: the significant roles of global and regional actors in the OSCE area, including the United States, the member states of the European Union, Russia, Turkey and Iran; the multiplicity of international and regional organisations active in the area, such as the United Nations (UN), Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Council of Europe (CoE), European Union (EU), and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); and the protracted nature of the so-called 'frozen' conflicts, such as the Transdniestrian, Georgian-Abkhaz, Georgian-Ossetian and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. These characteristics pose significant challenges for mediation efforts in the region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, and Turkey

18. Three Years of the Global Partnership. A View by Russia

Author:
V. Semin
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Three years have passed since June 2002, when G8 Leaders, in the Canadian town of Kananaskis, launched the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP), and committed to support projects initially in Russia.After the end of the Cold War and demise of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited a large number of strategic nuclear missiles, means of their delivery (including strategic and generalpurpose submarines) and huge arsenals of chemical weapons. In 1991-1992 we had to consolidate urgently and put into secure storage all nuclear weapons from the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Byelorussia, which became non-nuclear states under the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Soviet Union

19. The G8 Global Partnership on Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Next?

Author:
Daniil Kobyakov and Vladimir Orlov
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Since the inception of the G8 Global Partnership (GP) program in Kananaskis on June 27 2002, the program has passed through different stages. Initially, it was just a loud political declaration, adopted by the leaders of the G8 following the attacks of 9/11. A Russian participant of the Kananaskis Summit later recalled with some surprise how smoothly and, to some extent, unexpectedly for the Russians involved the "$20 billion" pledge was shaped in that Canadian village. Interviewed on a major European GP-related conference a year after the Kananaskis summit, he was frank to exclaim: "Arriving in Kananaskis, we [Russians] could hardly even expect that this whole giant wave now called Global Partnership would be born from our discussions of non-proliferation and counter-terrorism".
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia

20. Preventing the Brain Drain: Russia and Beyond

Author:
Vitaly Fedchenko
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
As Lao-Tzu once said, 'Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime'. This sentence expresses the essence of effective assistance. If you want to provide somebody with food, there are two options: either to supply him during all his lifetime or to teach him how to earn a living. Similarly, if you want a state to get rid of WMD capabilities, there is always an option to blow up some facilities, but the next day it would be necessary to check whether no new WMD capabilities have developed. Another option is to make the process self-sustaining on the ground, ensuring that the state itself is looking after it.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia