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111. AQAP in Yemen and the Christmas Day Terrorist Attack

Author:
Gregory D Johnsen
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The failed attempt by Nigerian bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to destroy a Northwest Airlines commercial aircraft on Christmas Day has re-focused Western attention on al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the potential dangers emanating from Yemen. The importance of this event drove British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to announce shortly after the botched attack that London would host a conference devoted to combating al-Qa`ida in Yemen. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed Brown's concerns days later, calling the situation in Yemen a threat to the entire world. But Yemen's problems are neither new nor unknown.
Political Geography:
United States, London, and Yemen

112. Evaluating the Al-Qa'ida Threat to the U.S. Homeland

Author:
Philip Mudd
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the nine years since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the counterterrorism campaign in the United States has changed remarkably. In the initial years after 9/11, the primary counterterrorism concern was the presence of more al-Qa`ida-directed terrorists on U.S. soil. Focus was concentrated on preventing a weapon of mass destruction strike, a second coordinated mass transit attack, or a cell directed against a different infrastructure target. As time passed, the United States was able to avoid another al-Qa`ida-directed attack on U.S. soil as a result of good counterterrorism work, combined with a lack of capacity on the part of al-Qa`ida's central leadership.
Political Geography:
United States

113. The Mysterious Relationship Between Al-Qa'ida and Iran

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The relationship between al-Qa`ida and Iran is shrouded in mystery. Before and after the September 11 attacks on the United States, al-Qa`ida operatives transited Iran, and some found sanctuary in the country after fleeing Afghanistan in late 2001. Yet the hints of occasional operational cooperation between al-Qa`ida and Iran are outweighed by the considerable and public evidence of the deep animosity between Sunni extremist al-Qa`ida and Shi`a extremist Iran. Antipathy for each other is at the root of their ideologies and narratives, and it has been most visible in their competition for influence in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran

114. Reevaluating Al-Qa'ida's Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities

Author:
Peter Bergen
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Two months after the 9/11 attacks, Usama bin Ladin claimed to possess a nuclear capability. On the morning of November 8, 2001, the Saudi militant was eating a hearty meal of meat and olives as Hamid Mir, a Pakistani journalist, interviewed him in a house in Kabul. Mir asked Bin Ladin to comment on reports that he had tried to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons, to which the al-Qa`ida leader replied: “I wish to declare that if America used chemical or nuclear weapons against us, then we may retort with chemical and nuclear weapons. We have the weapons as deterrent.” Mir asked, “Where did you get these weapons from?” Bin Ladin responded coyly, “Go to the next question.” After the interview was finished, Mir followed up this exchange over tea with Bin Ladin's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. “I asked this question to Dr. al-Zawahiri: that it is difficult to believe that you have nuclear weapons,” Mir explained. “So he said, 'Mr. Hamid Mir, it is not difficult. If you have 30 million dollars, you can go to the black market in Central Asia, make contact with a disgruntled Russian scientist and get from him suitcase nuclear weapons.'”
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, America, and Central Asia

115. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy. Within a realm of poor governance and widespread state corruption, anti‐state actors engage in and protect organized crime—mainly smuggling, extortion and kidnapping—both to raise funds and also to spread fear and insecurity, thus slowing the pace of development and frustrating attempts to extend the rule of law and establish a sustainable licit economy. Militant groups on either side of the frontier function like a broad network of criminal gangs, not just in terms of the activities in which they engage, but also in the way they are organized, how funds flow through their command chains and how they interact—and sometimes fight—with each other. There is no doubt that militant groups have capitalized on certain public grievances, yet their ties to criminal profiteering, along with the growing number of civilian casualties they cause on both sides of the frontier, have simultaneously contributed to a widening sense of anger and frustration among local communities. Through a series of focused and short anecdotal case studies, this paper aims to map out how key groups engage in criminal activity in strategic areas, track how involvement in illicit activity is deepening or changing and illustrate how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. It is hoped that a closer examination of this phenomenon will reveal opportunities for disrupting the problem, as well as illustrate how Coalition forces, the international community and moderate Muslim leaders might capitalize on an untapped public relations opportunity by better protecting local communities who are the main victims of it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

116. The Strengths and Weaknesses of Jihadist Ideology

Author:
Nelly Lahoud
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The central argument espoused by jihadist ideologues and leaders is that the Muslim world is plagued by grievances and injustices, many of which are caused by the West. According to their logic, the United States and corrupt, oppressive Muslim regimes are two sides of the same coin. Jihadist leaders warn Muslims not to fall for Western “deceptive” ideas such as democracy and human rights because they are designed to divert the umma (Islamic community) from jihad and ultimately paralyze it. Ayman al- Zawahiri, for example, asserts that the United States has only achieved its interests “by spreading oppression and terrorism at the hands of its [Islamic] allies.” According to al-Zawahiri, Western civilization sings the praises of human rights and liberties as long as such singing serves and benefits its interests. Jihadists have thus determined that jihad is the only path toward genuine change in this world and divine reward in the hereafter. Their jihad, they claim, is to fight to make God's Law supreme on earth. Only then can all Muslims, rulers and citizenry, be equally accountable to God's Law.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
United States

117. The Failure of Jihad in Saudi Arabia

Author:
Thomas Hegghammer
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
This paper traces and assesses al-Qa'ida''s efforts to launch an insurgency in Saudi Arabia from the mid-1990s until today. It examines the background of Usama bin Ladin's 1996 declaration of jihad, al-Qa'ida's activities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2002, and the causes and evolution of the campaign waged by the group “al-Qa'ida on the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP) from 2003 to 2006.
Topic:
Terrorism and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Saudi Arabia, and Sinai Peninsula

118. A Beacon for Extremists: The Ansar al-Mujahideen Web Forum

Author:
Evan Kohlmann
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
During the last decade, a virtual revolution has quietly taken place in the world of international terrorism. The traditional hubs of logistical activity—radical mosques, bookstores and guesthouses—have been strictly monitored by law enforcement and intelligence agencies. As a result, in a strategy pioneered by eager cyber-savvy youth such as London resident Younis Tsouli (known as “Irhabi 007”),aspiring terrorists have taken to the internet in force, employing jihadist-themed social networking forums as a new base for propaganda, communication, and even recruitment. It was only in retrospect, years after this phenomenon began, that governments recognized the degree to which al-Qa`ida's leadership was aware of the existence of these social networking forums—and the extent of their interest in using them to harness the power of the web.
Political Geography:
London

119. Anwar al-'Awlaqi: Profile of a Jihadi Radicalizer

Author:
Christopher Heffelfinger
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Imam anwar al-`awlaqi was thrust into the media spotlight following news of his involvement with Major Nidal Malik Hasan, the gunman in the November 5, 2009 shootings that killed 12 U.S. soldiers and a doctor at the Fort Hood Army base in Texas. Before the shootings, al-`Awlaqi was only a concern to a select few in the U.S. law enforcement community. Now, however, al-`Awlaqi is an open enemy of the United States. Indeed, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Nigerian man who attempted to blow up a Northwest Airlines flight as it landed in Detroit on Christmas Day, was reportedly one of al-`Awlaqi's students. Al-`Awlaqi, currently believed to be in Yemen, is now the subject of an extensive manhunt. In late December, it was reported that he may have been killed in a missile strike in Yemen's Shabwa Province, but he survived.
Political Geography:
United States, Yemen, and Nigeria

120. Building a Strategic U.S.-Pakistan Nuclear Relationship

Author:
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On april 12-13, 2010, U.S. President Barack Obama hosted the Washington Nuclear Security Summit. The final communiqué released from the summit, and agreed to by the 47 countries in attendance, stated that “nuclear terrorism is one of the most challenging threats to international security, and strong nuclear security measures are the most effective means to prevent terrorists, criminals, or other unauthorized actors from acquiring nuclear materials.”With this commitment, the bar has been raised for all countries to reassess their current levels of engagement with one another in an effort to achieve a greater level of nuclear security. As President Obama stated in Prague in April 2009, “one nuclear weapon exploded in one city—be it New York or Moscow, Islamabad, or Mumbai, Tokyo or Tel Aviv, Paris or Prague—could kill hundreds of thousands of people. And no matter where it happens, there is no end to what the consequences might be—for our global safety, our security, our society, our economy, to our ultimate survival.”
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, New York, Washington, Paris, Moscow, Tokyo, Mumbai, and Islamabad