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331. Limiting the Growth of the U.S. Defense Budget

Author:
Michael E O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
03-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In proposing a $48 billion defense budget increase for 2003 following a large increase in 2002, President George W. Bush has followed in the budgetary footsteps of former President Ronald Reagan and Reagan's defense secretary, Caspar Weinberger. Adjusted for inflation, Bush's 2003 defense budget would be $50 billion higher than the 2001 budget. By 2007, the real dollar defense budget would go up $30 billion more, approaching the peak levels of the Reagan years.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

332. A New Agenda for Nuclear Weapons

Author:
Ivo H Daalder and James M Lindsay
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
George W. Bush promised on the campaign trail “to leave the cold war behind” and “rethink the requirements for nuclear deterrence.” Last November, he unveiled an arms reduction proposal that purports to do just that. It would have the United States reduce its strategic nuclear arsenal over the next ten years from its current level of 7,200 warheads to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads. Equally important, the United States would achieve that goal not by negotiating a new Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START) agreement, but through unilateral action.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States

333. Should the War on Terrorism Target Iraq?

Author:
Michael E O'Hanlon and Philip H Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As Afghan opposition groups and U.S. armed forces continue their successes in the war against the Taliban and al Qaeda, the American debate has quickly turned to the question of where the fight against terrorism should go next. In numerous public statements, President Bush has talked about a wide-ranging campaign against global terrorism. He has not committed to military operations against any other countries or terrorist organizations, but he has made it clear that the broader struggle against terrorism will be a long-lasting effort that could include the use of military force in regions beyond Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, America, Middle East, and Taliban

334. The Epidemiology of Microeconomic Expectations

Author:
Christopher D. Carroll
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936), macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes. Yet in recent decades macroeconomists have devoted almost no effort to modeling actual empirical expectations data, instead assuming all agents' expectations are 'rational.' This paper takes up the challenge of modeling empirical household expectations data, and shows that a simple, standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of explaining the deviations of household inflation and unemployment expectations from the 'rational expectations' benchmark. Furthermore, a microfoundations or 'agent-based' version of the model may be able to explain, in a way that still permits aggregation, stark rejections of the pure rational expectations framework like Souleles's (2002) finding that members of different demographic groups have sharply different predictions for macroeconomic aggregates like the inflation rate.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America

335. Nasty, Brutish and Long: America's War on Terrorism

Author:
Ivo H. Daalder and James M. Lindsay
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The post–cold war era ended abruptly on the morning of September 11, 2001. From the moment terrorists turned jetliners into weapons of mass destruction, the United States was inescapably engaged in a new “war” against global terrorism. The Bush administration now intends to make that war the central organizing principle of America's foreign and defense policies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

336. The Aid and Reconstruction Agenda for Afghanistan

Author:
Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
With the Taliban and al Qaeda largely defeated, a temporary coalition government taking power in Afghanistan, the Freedom Bridge near Uzbekistan finally open to relief efforts, and foreign donors promising significant aid more generally, the future looks increasingly promising for the Afghan people. But many challenges remain, even beyond the immediate priority of completing the military operation. Without rapid delivery of sufficient food, shelter, and medical supplies, Afghanistan could still experience a humanitarian catastrophe this winter. Without great care to shore up the coalition government, it could fail, just as state-building efforts have failed with disastrous consequences in places such as Angola, Rwanda, and Somalia in recent years. Without sufficient delivery of reconstruction aid, Afghanistan could remain mired in the same poverty and chaos that gave rise to the Taliban in the first place.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Uzbekistan, Rwanda, Somalia, and Angola

337. Evolution of Japan's Policy Toward Economic Integration

Author:
Naoko Munakata
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
On October 22, 2000, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong agreed to formal negotiations for the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement for a New Age Partnership (JSEPA) in January 2001, in light of the September 2000 report from the Japan-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (JSFTA) Joint Study Group. It was the first time Japan entered into negotiations concerning regional economic integration. With a strong emphasis on the need to address the new challenges globalization and technological progress pose; the Joint Study Group explored a possible .New Age FTA. between the two countries, which Prime Minister Goh proposed in December 1999. Thus, for Japan the JSEPA marked a major turning point in promoting regional economic integration.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and Asia

338. Pakistan's Madrassahs: Ensuring a System of Education not Jihad

Author:
P.W. Singer
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Pakistan's religious schools, Madrassahs, trace their traditions back through nearly a thousand years of Islamic teaching. Over the last decades, however, they increasingly have played a role contrary to their original intent. Founded as centers of learning for the next generation of Islamic scholars and clerics, the schools now increasingly dominate the education sphere. The present danger is that a minority of these schools have built extremely close ties with radical militant groups and play a critical role in sustaining the international terrorist network. Madrassahs. displacement of a public education system is also worrisome to the stability of the Pakistani state and its future economic prospects.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

339. Globalization in the Aftermath: Target, Casualty, Callous Bystander?

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
No sooner had Americans digested the horror of September 11 than voices on both sides of the debate began making the connection to globalization. Advocates argued that the attacks were directed at globalization, or, if not the target, globalization was the chief casualty. Others bemoaned an even more troubling possibility: globalization would callously continue its crusade unmoved by the events of September 11.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and America

340. Complementarity and Social Networks

Author:
Yann Bramoulle
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
I investigate complementarity games played on graphs, which model negative externalities embedded in structures of interaction. On the complete graph, the traditional economic analysis applies: the number of agents playing one strategy is proportional to its payoff. I show that, in general and contrary to coordination games, the structure crucially influences the equilibria. On an important class of graphs, called bipartite graphs, the equilibria do not depend on strategies' payoffs. On certain highly asymmetric graphs, an increase in the payoff of a strategy even decreases the number of agents playing this strategy. In most cases, equilibria do not maximize welfare.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Latin America