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11. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger

Author:
Savannah de Tessières
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
This Report from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project examines insecurity, terrorism, and trafficking in Niger.The Sahel hosts multiple conflicts with myriad armed actors destabilizing the entire region. Positioned at the heart of this region, Niger sits at the crossroads of terrorism, trafficking, and conflict. The Nigerien state has great difficulty in guaranteeing domestic security, which has a devastating impact on social and economic development, in addition to it reinforcing tensions and fueling local conflicts. Older tensions become locked into new insecurity dynamics, such as terrorism, further complicating any future resolutions. Armed banditry, trafficking of weapons and drugs, violent community disputes, and the rise in terrorist attacks are all symptomatic of the State’s struggles. At the Crossroads of Sahelian Conflicts: Insecurity, Terrorism, and Arms Trafficking in Niger, authored by Savannah de Tessières, a senior consultant to the Survey, draws on extensive fieldwork in the regions of Agadez, Diffa, and Niamey. This included examinations of arms and ammunition seized across the country, as well as dozens of interviews with national and international government and security officials, civil society representatives, gold diggers, former rebels, and other experts.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Terrorism, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Sahel, and Niger

12. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus

Author:
Paul Holtom and Irene Pavesi
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The 2018 edition of the Small Arms Survey’s Trade Update—analyzing the small arms authorized trade in 2015—finds that the global authorized small arms trade was worth at least USD 5.7 billion in 2015, with small arms ammunition exports valued at USD 2.3 billion. The total value represents a seven per cent decrease between 2014 and 2015, mostly due to a USD 198 million decline in exports by top exporting countries the United States, Brazil, and Italy. Sub-Saharan Africa suffers disproportionately from the negative impacts of small arms and ammunition flows on peace, security, stability, and development, yet it only accounts for less than five per cent of the estimated value of the authorized global small arms trade. Due to historically low levels of openness regarding sub-Saharan African small arms production and transfers, identifying major African importers and exporters—as well as suppliers—remains a challenge. Trade Update 2018: Sub-Saharan Africa in Focus uses multiple open sources to tentatively map major sub-Saharan African producers, exporters, and importers of small arms. The Small Arms Survey identified that at least 15 sub-Saharan African states industrially produce small arms and/or ammunition, namely: Angola, Cameroon, Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Official data indicates that South Africa was the largest sub-Saharan African exporter and importer of small arms during 2013–15. Significant importers during this period include: Angola, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda. The largest transparent small arms exporters to sub-Saharan Africa for 2013–15 appear to be Bulgaria, Serbia, France, Spain, and Italy, in descending order of importance. Exporters such as China, the Russian Federation, and Turkey also concluded significant deals to supply small arms to sub-Saharan Africa during this period.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Political stability, Arms Trade, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

13. Global Violent Deaths 2017: Time to Decide

Author:
Claire McEvoy and Gergely Hideg
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Lethal violence claimed 560,000 lives in 2016—more than one person every minute of every day of the year. Global Violent Deaths 2017: Time to Decide, a report from the Small Arms Survey, shows that while the global conflict death rate dropped in 2016, the global homicide rate increased for the first time since 2004. Although this does not necessarily indicate a new trend, it does signal growing insecurity in non-conflict areas. Of the five countries with the highest death rates in 2016—Syria, El Salvador, Venezuela, Honduras, and Afghanistan—only two had active armed conflicts. The study also elaborates scenarios for the future based on current trends, to assess the number of people that could be saved if states implement effective violence reduction initiatives in support of Agenda 2030, as opposed to more negative outcomes if trends worsen. If prevailing trends remain unchanged, the annual number of violent deaths is likely to increase to 630,000 by 2030. On the contrary, if states commit themselves to effectively address conflict and armed violence, the number of annual deaths could be lowered to 408,000 by 2030—even considering the population increase. In total, over the next twelve years, approximately 1.35 million lives could be saved. Within the Agenda 2030 framework and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals, states have an unprecedented opportunity to save lives. It’s time to decide.
Topic:
Security, Sustainable Development Goals, and Violence
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, Honduras, El Salvador, and Global Focus

14. Down, but Not Out: The FDLR in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, FDLR)—including its armed wing, the Forces Combattantes Abacunguzi (Abacunguzi Fighting Forces, FOCA)1—is among the most enduring armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Several members of the group’s top leadership are suspected of involvement in the 1994 Rwandan genocide, making the FDLR’s continued presence in the DRC a recurring point of contention between Kinshasa and Kigali and a source of tensions for the Great Lakes region as a whole (Omaar, 2008, pp. 65– 66, 236–312). Maj. Gen. Sylvestre Mudacumura, the group’s military commander, is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes committed in the DRC itself (ICC, 2012). The group’s presence has also led to the emer- gence of local armed groups that claim to protect communities, further complicating security dynamics in the eastern DRC (Debelle and Florquin, 2015, p. 206).
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Conflict, Genocide, Armed Struggle, and War Crimes
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

15. Ammunition Marking: Current Practices and Future Possibilities

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The relevance of ammunition control measures and their inclusion in global agreements and instruments have sparked an animated debate in the international arms control community. Within the ammunition control debate, ammunition marking is among the most contentious issues.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements

16. Weapons Tracing and Peace Support Operations: Theory or Practice?

Author:
Glenn McDonald and James Bevan
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Weapons tracing is a set of methods used to identify weapons and ammunition and track their origins. It has an established role in criminal investigations, where it is typically used not only to prove a firearm-related offence, but also to uncover the source of illicit supplies to criminals. By contrast, weapons tracing in conflict and post-conflict situations—for example, by peace support operations (PSOs)— remains a matter of theory, not practice. To date, the only bodies that have traced conflict and post-conflict weapons (and ammunition) in any quantity are UN Groups of Experts, specifically for purposes of detecting and confirming arms embargo violations.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, United Nations, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Law Enforcement

17. Symptoms and causes: Insecurity and underdevelopment in Eastern Equatoria

Author:
Emile LeBrun
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Eastern Equatoria state (EES) is one of the most volatile and conflict-prone states in Southern Sudan. An epicentre of the civil war ( 1983 – 2005 ), EES saw intense fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), as well numerous armed groups supported by both sides, leaving behind a legacy of landmines and unexploded ordnance, high numbers of weapons in civilian hands, and shattered social and community relations.
Topic:
Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

18. Primed and Purposeful: Armed Groups and Human Security Efforts in the Philippines

Author:
Soliman M. Santos and Paz Verdades M. Santos
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
As this book was in its final stages of preparation, contributing author Professor Octavio Dinampo of Mindanao State University was taken hostage while he guided journalists to meet a leader of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in Sulu province in June 2008. Instead of considering him to be among the civilian hostages, security force officials cast suspicions over the possible culpability of Dinampo, a former member of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and now respected academic and peace advocate. He was released ten days late.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

19. Surveying Europe's Production and Procurement of Small Arms and Light Weapons Ammunition

Author:
Benjamin King(ed.)
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Enumerating a state's demand and supply chains for small arms and light weapons ammunition remains a difficult undertaking. This is largely an outcome of many nations' reluctance to fully disclose information, together with poor accounting practices that hide the value of the data in aggregate totals. This working paper illustrates these challenges by detailing the most comprehensive picture possible of three countries' procurement, production, and exportation of ammunition for small arms and light weapons. Given the variety in transparency and disparate means of disclosure, each researcher took a unique approach towards fact finding. Comprehensive data on procurement, production, and exports was not uncovered in any of the cases, as none of these three countries compiles or publicizes such information. Instead, the best information available was gathered through a compilation of sources from each country.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Trading Life, Trading Death: The Flow of Small Arms from Mozambique to Malawi

Author:
Gregory Mthembu-Salter
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
In a region apparently awash with weapons and plagued with rising levels of armed crime, Malawi is a welcome exception to these characteristics. In early 2007 there were only 9,320 legally registered firearms in Malawi excluding those used by the security forces, compared to just under 87,000 in Zambia (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 286) and nearly 4 million in South Africa (Gould et al., 2004, p. 133). Though a country of an estimated 13 million people, in the 5 years between 1996 and 2000 Malawi suffered just 2,161 reported cases of armed robbery (Mwakasungula and Nungu, 2004, p. 89). For 2005 the figure was 316 and for 2004 it was 263, according to figures provided by the Malawi Police Service (MPS). Even leaving aside South Africa, where there were 119,726 recorded cases of aggravated robbery in 2006 (SAPS, 2006), Malawi's armed crime statistics still compare favourably with the rest of the region. In neighbouring Zambia, for example, where there is a population of only 10 million people, there were 3,168 reported cases of armed robbery in the 5 years between 1998 and 2002 (Mtonga and Mthembu-Salter, 2004, p. 294).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa