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1. Truce Expires as Internal Divisions Deepen – The Yemen Review, October 2022

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The truce between the internationally recognized government and the armed Houthi movement, in place since April, was allowed to expire without renewal on October 2. The UN-facilitated agreement engineered the longest period of relative peace of the war. September saw intensive negotiations to extend and expand the truce, and optimism was high throughout the month, but talks broke down when the Houthis made an eleventh-hour demand for the payment of additional military salaries. Efforts to revive the agreement continue, and talks continue over public sector salaries, the reopening of roads, and flights out of Sana’a airport. There was no major resumption of hostilities after the truce expired, though low-level clashes remain frequent. The Southern Transitional Council continues to expand its control in the south. Following last month’s battle for Shabwa, the group has begun a nominally counter-terrorist campaign against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Abyan, and has engineered demonstrations and protests again the presence of Islah-affiliated forces in Hadramawt. Yemen’s dual currencies remained stable over the course of the month. The government continued its efforts to secure a long-promised funding package from UAE and Saudi Arabia, though the latter has now renewed an agreement to provide fuel for Yemen’s power plants. A fuel crisis in Houthi territory brought recriminations from both sides but was averted with the import of additional supplies. Seasonal rains in Yemen continue to cause massive flooding, which claimed a number of lives this month. The UN announced that it has secured enough pledged funds to begin the salvage of the FSO Safer, a deteriorating oil storage vessel posing a massive environmental risk in the Red Sea.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Currency, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Weather
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

2. Starvation, Diplomacy and Ruthless Friends: The Yemen Annual Review 2018

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Yemen Review – launched in June 2016 as ‘Yemen at the UN’ – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. The Yemen Annual Review is a synthesis of these monthly publications that also accounts for, and provides analysis of, the broader dynamics that occurred throughout the previous 12 months. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Food Security, Economy, Currency, UN Security Council, Houthis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

3. Restoring central bank capacity and stabilizing the rial

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
As part of the “Rethinking Yemen’s Economy” initiative, more than 20 of the leading socioeconomic experts on Yemen converged for the second Development Champions Forum on January 14-16 in Amman, Jordan. Among the urgent topics of discussion was the deterioration of the value of the Yemeni rial (YR), the magnifying impact this is having on the humanitarian crisis, and the need to re-empower the Central Bank of Yemen (CBY) as the steward of the rial and the economy generally. This policy brief is an outcome of those discussions, and the recommendations it includes collectively underline the need for the CBY to function in a more coherent, assertive manner – whereby its various branches operate as a united entity that is able to draft and implement monetary policies for Yemen as a whole. This paper includes further input from the Development Champions following the announcement by Saudi Arabia on January 17 of a $2 billion deposit to the CBY. Restoring central bank capacity and stabilizing the rial - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/main-publications/5360
Topic:
Development, Economy, Central Bank, and Currency
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

4. The Yemen Review – August 2018

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the last six days of August the Yemeni rial entered one of its steepest and most rapid declines in value since the conflict began, resulting in sudden price spikes for basic foodstuffs. Given Yemen’s overwhelming dependence on imports to feed the population, such changes in the rial’s value have direct implications for the country’s humanitarian crisis (see ‘The Yemeni Rial’s Rapid Decline and Food Prices Surge’). Both the internationally recognized Yemeni government in Aden and the Houthi authorities in Sana’a took actions through last month targeting unlicensed money exchange firms – that have proliferated since the conflict began in 2015 – in an effort to curb their destabilizing effect on the currency market (see ‘Attempts to Curb the Influence of Unlicensed Money Exchange Firms’). A Saudi-led military coalition airstrike hit a bus in the Dahyan market in Yemen’s Sa’ada governorate, killing 54 people, 44 of them children. The coalition initially defended the strike as a “legitimate military action.” However, following mounting international pressure – including from the US Department of Defense – the coalition admitted that the strike was unjustified and said it would hold accountable those found responsible (see ‘Coalition Bombs a Bus Full of Children’). A group of international experts, mandated by the UN to investigate human rights violations in Yemen, published its first report. The group reported that it found reasonable grounds to believe that the governments of Yemen, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, and Houthi and allied forces have all committed war crimes (see ‘Group of Experts Publishes Its First Report’). Throughout August, the UAE-backed Giants Brigades, supported by Saudi-led military coalition aircraft, made advances in al-Durayhimi district, Hudaydah governorate. The coalition’s bombing of al-Durayhimi killed dozens of civilians, including 22 children (see ‘Anti-Houthi Offensives in Hudaydah Governorate’). In Taiz, tensions between the UAE-backed Abu al-Abbas Brigades and Islah-affiliated units – both members of the coalition-backed forces fighting the Houthis – broke out in clashes. Dozens of civilians were reportedly killed. Meanwhile, suspected southern separatist gunmen attacked a military academy graduation ceremony in Aden, killing a cadet (see ‘Other Military and Security Developments’). The UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council (UNSC) he was planning to hold consultations with the main warring parties September 6 in Geneva, where they would discuss a framework for peace and confidence building measures (see ‘Special Envoy’s Plan for Consultations With Warring Parties in Geneva’). President Donald Trump signed National Defence Authorization Bill (NDAA) for 2019, which includes an amendment that requires certification that the coalition is taking efforts to avoid civilians casualties, is committed to ending the conflict, and is taking measures to alleviate the humanitarian emergency. In his signing statement, Trump said his powers as commander-in-chief override the amendment (see ‘Developments In the United States’). Also in August, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) warned that the education of 3.7 million children in Yemen’s north was at risk in the upcoming school year. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and health authorities in Yemen launched the second of three phases of the first-ever oral cholera vaccination campaign in Yemen (see ‘Humanitarian Developments’).
Topic:
Human Rights, Food, Economy, Conflict, and Currency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

5. The Yemen Review – September 2018

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In September, the Yemeni rial’s recent decline accelerated precipitously, with the currency’s value dropping to record lows by month’s end. While the rial has been under multiple, intensifying pressures stemming from the war for several years, a large increase in the money supply – through a 30 percent increase in civil servant salaries – and the collapse of peace talks last month appear to have spurred a rial sell-off in the market (see ‘Domestic Currency Hits Record Low’). A nation-wide fuel shortage ensued. Retail fuel stations closed en masse and prices for available petrol on the black market jumped an average of 130 percent relative to August, and as much as 230 percent in some areas (see ‘Fuel Shortages and Prices Surges Across Yemen’). The UN-brokered consultations between the main warring parties – the internationally recognized Yemeni government and the armed Houthi movement – collapsed before they even began due to logistics issues in transporting the Houthi delegation to Geneva for the talks (see ‘Failure of the Geneva Consultations’). The Saudi-led military coalition-backed assault on the Houthi-held port city of Hudaydah – which the coalition had “paused” in July – reignited in earnest. The coalition claimed that a victory in Hudaydah was necessary to force the armed Houthi movement back to the negotiating table (see ‘Offensive on Hudaydah City Resumes’). In southern Yemen, public protests that began in Aden in August grew and spread to other governorates, with protesters calling for measures to stem the rial’s plunge and tame rocketing prices (see ‘Protests Spread in Southern Governorates’). In northern Yemen, pro-government forces began an assault on Maran, Sa’ada governorate, which holds symbolic and strategic importance as the ancestral town of the al-Houthi family (see ‘Yemeni Government Forces Advance in Sa’ada’). Meanwhile, in the United States, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo certified that the Saudi-led military coalition was taking measures to reduce harm to civilians in Yemen, as was mandated by Congress in August for continued US support for the coalition. A former State Department adviser subsequently told the Sana’a Center that “objectively, [Pompeo’s] conclusion is false”, (see ‘State Department Certifies Coalition Efforts to Reduce Civilian Casualties’). In Europe, Spain annulled an arms deal with Saudi Arabia, then backtracked, Germany approved new arms exports to coalition members, and the UN Human Rights Council extended the mandate of an experts group investigating human rights violations in Yemen. Also in September, the Sana’a Center organized the largest foreign press delegation visit to Mukalla, Hadramawt governorate, since al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was expelled from the city in 2016.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Conflict, Negotiation, Currency, and Military
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America