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411. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

412. Outsourcing and Offshoring: Pushing the European Model Over the Hill, Rather Than Off the Cliff!

Author:
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Once again a specter is haunting Europe—not in the shape that Marx saw it but in the form of outsourcing and offshoring, which allegedly will empty Europe of the highly skilled high-paying jobs of the future. This working paper argues that the specter needs to be dispelled. Today, Europe faces challenges in the form of low productivity growth and low labor utilization/high unemployment. Outsourcing and offshoring, far from being a blight, are powerful tools to help solve the productivity growth problem and may also—provided the right structural reforms are implemented—assist in solving Europe's low employment problem.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Third World
Political Geography:
Europe

413. The Potential of International Policy Coordination

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
International economic policy coordination is an idea that is not nowadays at the top of the international agenda. The usual idea these days is that if each country pursues its own national interests, then the world will do as well as possible: There are no exploitable bargains of the type "it will pay [both][all] of us to change policies simultaneously even though if one of us made the change individually we would suffer" available. Even if there are no opportunities of that type (let us call them type A) available, there might still in principle be the chance of gaining by subscribing to a set of rules: Country X might expect to gain more over time from countries Y and Z respecting the rules than it would lose at other times from being obliged to modify its behavior according to the rules. Let us call these type B gains.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and East Asia

414. Reflections

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
My reflections on the new operating procedures that were adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 6, 1979, derive from my responsibilities at the Federal Reserve Board at the time. Those responsibilities included preparation of the international component of the staff forecast, analysis of economic and financial developments in other countries, and assisting the Chairman and members of the Board (primarily Henry C. Wallich) with international responsibilities in connection with their attendance at international meetings. Therefore, mine was and is an international perspective. I was not involved in the design of the new operating procedures, although I was informed that the project was under way.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
United States

415. Managing Energy Insecurity

Author:
John Browne
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
It is great to be in Washington again and a privilege to be invited to speak here for the first time. You asked me to talk about energy security, and I think the basic question is whether, to use the words of one of your recent papers, there is "a gathering storm" around energy supply, and what, if anything, should and could be done to avert that storm.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

416. US Trade Policy in 2005

Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Some time ago, Fred Bergsten and I were talking about the fact that, if trade liberalization is to move forward and retrogression is to be prevented, the focus of the policy community and the public on the benefits of trade-in the full sense, including imports-and on the issues around trade needs to increase. The adverse effects trade has on some people are very keenly felt and often lead to vociferous opposition, while the benefits of trade for a far greater number of people are diffuse and usually little if at all understood-for example, by consumers-and seldom generate political activity on behalf of trade.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

417. A Revived Bretton Woods System? Implications for Europe and the United States

Author:
Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This note addresses three topics: (1) Do the recent musings by Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (DFG), in particular their argument that the world is operating under a revived Bretton Woods system (BW2), provide a useful framework for thinking about international economic and financial developments and prospects? (2) What does the DFG framework imply for the euro area, and are those implications reasonable? (3) What does the DFG framework imply for the United States, and are those implications reasonable?
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

418. This is Bangalore Calling: Hang Up or Speed Dial? What Technology-Enable International Trade in Services Means for the US Economy

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Globalization, always a contentious issue, has become even more so with media reports of U.S. service-sector jobs being outsourced to emerging-market economies, such as call center operations to Ireland or programming jobs to India. Traditionally, these jobs have been considered “nontradable” and therefore safe from the competitive forces of international trade and investment. But increasingly, technological advances are making it easier to buy services from other companies, even those in developing countries, where savings in the cost of labor or the opportunity to use the 24- hour clock to speed product develop- ment can be irresistible.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and Ireland

419. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: Global Co-dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment

Author:
Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Global imbalances have continued, indeed deepened, far longer than both researchers and pundits would have thought. On the US side, the current account deficit at about $630 billion (2004q1-3, AR) and 5.5 percent of GDP (2004q3) falls outside the oft-quoted range of 4-5 percent after which, research on industrial countries suggests, economic forces tend to narrow the imbalance. There is some-what less research on the persistence of global imbalances from the standpoint of the rest of the world, in part because individually most of those imbalances are not so notable. Clearly though, collectively growth in the rest of the world has come to be co-dependent on US demand patterns.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
United States

420. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia