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41. Brazil — IMF Agreement

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The real is stabilising against the dollar following the announcement of the latest draft agreement between Brazil and the IMF on August 3. The provision of additional resources by the Fund is designed to support the value of the real and prevent the Brazilian economy from sliding into recession.
Topic:
International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

42. Uruguay — Defensive Economics

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In response to regional instability and two years of recession, Uruguay's government has taken measures to stimulate economic growth.
Topic:
International Organization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America

43. Israel/Turkey: Strategic Ties

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel's Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz met senior Turkish defence officials on July 27 to discuss defence cooperation. Israel and Turkey, facing similar strategic problems based on shared interests and fears, are in the process of building the most powerful alliance in the Middle East. They are doing so in the face of opposition from the Arab and Muslim worlds as well wider concerns, notably on the part of Russia. The Turkish-Israeli alliance now appears sufficiently robust, at least for the moment, to withstand opposition from the Arab and Muslim world. Moreover, US support for the entente may grow owing to concerns about terrorism and stability in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as well as the administration's renewed emphasis on stability in the Gulf.
Topic:
Security and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

44. Mercosur/European Union — Tariff Talks

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outlook for trade ties between the EU and Mercosur. EU-Mercosur trade negotiations earlier this month gave a vigorous push to commercial negotiations between the two regions. The EU presented a detailed proposal for liberalising EU-Mercosur trade during the next ten years. Trade talks between the EU and Mercosur have now reached a more advanced stage than the talks on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

45. India/Pakistan — Peace Pipe

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
India and Iran have proposed the construction of a natural gas pipeline connection. While the project would be a major engineering achievement, the principal challenge will be gaining Islamabad's consent for it to traverse Pakistani territory. Pakistan's parlous relations with Tehran and Delhi, the latter little improved by last weekend's summit, will make this difficult.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia

46. United States — Downturn Dilemmas

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Despite the continuing fragility of the economy, prompt policy action and the resilience of the US consumer are likely to prevent a full-blown recession, thereby shaping the probable path of the US economic downturn. Therefore, the risk of negative balance sheets and potential inflationary problems could arise from too rapid a recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Politics
Political Geography:
United States

47. European Union: Belgian Presidency

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The rotating EU presidency this week passed from the Swedish to the Belgian government. The Belgian presidency faces a considerable test of nerve as it attempts to square its constitutional ambitions for further political integration with the increasing unpredictability of European public opinion. The new public mood of caution towards European integration has resulted in a notable ambivalence on the part of Verhofstadt. While stressing the importance of a completely open debate, Verhofstadt is also using the more closed approach of close consultation between governments and their representatives in preparing keynote proposals for the Laeken European Council, which, in reality, is the only way of reaching solutions.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

48. Argentina — Federal Stand-Off

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Opposition Peronist party governors and trade unions this week broke off institutional dialogue with the federal government over recent economic measures and pending debts. The fourteen governors in question, their minds on mid-term legislative elections, believe that the political cost of supporting the government will be greater than the cost of being seen to scupper its initiatives, and that opposition constitutes a more effective means of pressing their demands. Their decision puts the prospects for Argentina's economic recovery at risk. The Peronist governors' decision to distance themselves from the government both reflects and compounds the weakness of the federal administration. While their new approach to force concessions from the government could ease social problems in the short term, there is a danger that it will do so at the expense of economic recovery and political stability in the longer term.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
South America

49. European Union — Enlargement Post-Gothenburg

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
At the Gothenburg European Council on June 15-16, EU leaders set themselves the objective of starting eastward enlargement by 2004. Small but significant changes in the wording of commitments on enlargement were agreed after intensive diplomacy by the Swedish EU presidency. The EU now has a very tight timetable for concluding negotiations with the front-runner candidates for membership. Although the candidates have made good progress, many political obstacles must be surmounted during the next 18 months, with the Irish referendum result creating further complications. However, the most important negotiations will not be those with the candidates, but those between the member states.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

50. Iran — Khatami Landslide

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
President Mohammed Khatami was re-elected on June 8 by a huge margin. Khatami's supporters are already talking about a renewed campaign for reform under a reorganised cabinet and a reinvigorated Majlis. However, the obstacles to such a programme remain formidable. Khatami is likely to press a little more strongly for reform, especially in the economic field. However, doubts remains that he or his parliamentary colleagues have the means to use the renewed mandate provided by the election to press for radical change. Any change is therefore likely to modest and incremental, though, in the Iranian context, significant.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East