Publishing Institution: Oxford Analytica / Topic: Politics

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Indonesian army has, so far, failed to derail President BJ Habibie's plans for East Timorese self-determination. Nevertheless, military leaders have reasserted themselves as key players in domestic politics by imposing a high cost on politicians who fail to take sufficient account of their agenda. Civilian contenders for political power are actively courting army support. A likely consequence will be the emergence of a civilian-led government with close ties to the military. Opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri is the front-runner for the presidency, possibly with Army Chief General Wiranto as her vice-president.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Debate surrounding the US elections in 2000 has centred on the contests for the presidency, and control of the House of Representatives. Far less attention has been placed on the partisan balance within the Senate. During the past two decades, the upper chamber has increased its influence over policy direction, a trend that appears likely to continue. Growing senatorial influence will act as a moderating force in US politics regardless of who occupies the White House or which party holds a majority in the House.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and Moscow

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Despite last week's crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations, there is still considerable momentum behind President Mohamed Khatami's political liberalisation drive. While the democratisation movement may have suffered a short-term setback and is likely to encounter further opposition from right-wing clerics, Khatami's reform coalition remains in place and is still likely to be buoyed by next year's parliamentary election results. Nonetheless, the president needs quickly to reassert his commitment to change in the run-up to the election.
Topic:: Security, Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

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