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21. The Colombian peace process: paradoxes and dilemmas

Author:
Juan Gabriel Tokatlian
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The parties to the conflict in Colombia are relatively close to a final agreement, but obstacles remain. Internal tensions remain high in Colombia, despite the advances in Havana, and the need to promote a “pedagogy for peace” is urgent in light of these tensions. In particular, the transformations and adjustments required to achieve a successful peace and not just a temporary reduction of violence need to be focused on. A NOREF-Universidad Di Tella seminar in Buenos Aires concluded that the GOC-FARC negotiation process is gradually becoming a fact of Colombian politics, but frictions will grow as peace becomes more likely. The issues of land, the state and the rule of law will remain central to Colombian society and therefore to the peace process. In a problem-filled global environment, peace in Colombia could be a positive factor. The U.S. has not undermined the peace negotiations as it did under previous Colombian administrations, while the participation of Latin America will be significant in building peace in Colombia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Negotiation, and Violence
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Latin America

22. The role of norms in international peace mediation

Author:
Sarah Hellmüller, Julia Palmiano Federer, and Mathias Zeller
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief assesses the role of norms in international peace mediation. Despite the topic attracting growing attention, the ways in which norms influence mediation processes are often not analysed systematically but rather prescriptively. In order to shed light on this debate from an analytical point of view, the brief suggests a three-step analytical framework. First, it suggests a categorisation of norms, then it assesses how mediators prioritise norms within this framework and finally it calls for a context-specific inclusion of norms in mediation processes. Thus, it argues that explicitly elucidating the different categories of norms, as well as their prioritisation by mediators, mandate-givers and negotiating parties, will lead to a more constructive debate and provide sustainable solutions that are owned by national, and supported by international, actors.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Peace, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Scenarios for a peace mission for Syria

Author:
Alvaro Vasvoncelos
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This policy brief reviews the current political and humanitarian situation in Syria and analyses possible scenarios for a peace mission for Syria. The brief argues that the most likely scenario for an end to the conflict would require a regionally led solution involving Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with the eventual backing of the US and Russia. Four preliminary conclusions have been identified: There is a highly fragmented military situation and any peace deal will face armed opposition. There will probably be a need for a peace mission. One option may involve limited missions to secure local ceasefires. A second option could involve a two-tier mission that, following a peace deal, is able to perform a mix of tasks that includes peace enforcement and peacekeeping. A coalition of EU states should assume the hard military core of any two-tier mission within a “Berlin Plus” framework that allows for the use of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) assets and capabilities. They should act, however, with the participation of a wider grouping of states, including BRICS countries such as Brazil, Russia and India, as well as members of the Arab League. There is no solution to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) challenge in isolation from the broader issues at the root of the conflict. A democratic political process with elections and a new constitution must be the end game for any peace mission.
Topic:
NATO, ISIS, Islamic State, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Syria, and North America

24. Why “no-fly zones” or “IS-free zones” are not a solution in Syria

Author:
Hrair Balian
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
There is a renewed push to establish “no-fly” and “IS-free” zones in Syria. An external military intervention to establish such zones, even with the good intention of protecting civilians, is likely to precipitate more chaotic fighting and further harm civilians. Instead, the international community should build a minimum consensus among the “Friends of Syria”, Russia, and Iran to accommodate the interests and concerns of Syria’s external stakeholders, and reconcile the existential fears of various communities and regime supporters in Syria with the aspirations of the country’s majority Sunni population. Once these fundamental issues are addressed, a political solution to the Syrian crisis will become possible.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Civil War, Military Strategy, and Air Force
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

25. Russia’s policy in the Middle East imperilled by the Syrian intervention

Author:
Pavel K. Baev
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The military intervention launched by Russia in Syria in September 2015 has altered the character of this protracted civil war and – quite remarkably – has both advanced and jeopardised Russia’s positions in the Middle East. This risky experiment in power projection constitutes a continuation of traditional Russian policy in this rapidly transforming region, but is also a departure from the strategy of careful manoeuvring aimed at exploiting the confusion in U.S. and European policies. Quite possibly the main drivers for this proactive move were either domestic factors or issues related to the confrontation with the West caused by Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. The present analysis, however, deals only with the Middle Eastern contexts, aims and consequences of this enterprise.
Topic:
Civil War, Imperialism, Military Strategy, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

26. The Intellectualist movement in Ethiopia, the Muslim Brotherhood and the issue of moderation

Author:
Terje Østebø and Wallelign Shemsedin
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Intellectualist movement is one of the major Islamic reform movements in contemporary Ethiopia. Informal and decentralised in character, it has attracted young students, professionals and urban intellectuals. The movement was inspired to a great extent by the ideas of the Muslim Brotherhood, which were critically contextualised and applied to the Ethiopian context. This has entailed avoiding the more political aspects of Brotherhood thinking while emphasising the positive role of Islamic virtues in the formation of individual and societal piety. The Intellectualists have further been formative for Ethiopian Muslims' thinking about secularism, democracy and constitutional rule, and have played a significant role in mediating between various religious actors in Ethiopia, as well as negotiating the position of Islam in relation to the political authorities. Of particular importance is the way in which the movement has served as a moderating force in a rapidly changing and fluid political and religious landscape. This demonstrates the inherent complexity of the trend commonly labelled as Islamism, and points to the need for nuanced and localised approaches when trying to understand this trend.
Political Geography:
Ethiopia

27. Haitian migrant workers in the Dominican Republic: a different framework

Author:
Wenche Hauge
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
In recent decades Haitian migration to the Dominican Republic has been unregulated. It has garnered more attention after the 2010 earthquake in Haiti caused a slight peak in cross-border migration. The ruling of the Dominican Republic's Constitutional Tribunal on September 23rd 2013, which effectively denationalised many Dominicans of Haitian ancestry, has increased this attention. However, a narrow focus has defined the debate in terms of human rights concerns versus the Dominican Republic's sovereignty. This policy brief shows why it is necessary to broaden the focus to include other aspects of the relationship between Haiti and the Dominican Republic, such as asymmetrical trade relations and how they affect Haitian communities along the border between the two countries in particular. It also points out the importance of social representation, and how images that Dominican and Haitian populations have of each other are formed, and influence the situation of Haitian migrant workers and their families in the Dominican Republic. Finally, it argues that more attention should be paid to the role of local civil society in support of Haitian migrant workers in the Dominican Republic, because civil society has proven to be very active, using a multifaceted strategy in its work.

28. he peace process in Mindanao, the Philippines: evolution and lessons learned

Author:
Kristian Herbolzheimer
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (2014) marks the first significant peace agreement worldwide in ten years and has become an inevitable reference for any other contemporary peace process. During 17 years of negotiations the government of the Philippines and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front managed to build up a creative hybrid architecture for verifying the ceasefire, supporting the negotiations and implementing the agreements, with the participation of Filipinos and members of the international community, the military and civilians, and institutions and civil society. This report analyses the keys that allowed the parties to reach an agreement and the challenges ahead in terms of implementation. It devotes special attention to the management of security-related issues during the transition from war to peace.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Asia, Philippines, Southeast Asia, and Mindanao

29. Fixing fragile states: a country-based framework

Author:
Seth Kaplan
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Although there is growing awareness in the development field of the need to better assess fragile states and customise policies to their particular needs, there has been limited progress in these areas. The new Country Fragility Assessment Framework, which systematically examines the societal and institutional sources of fragility, can help decision-makers make more precise diagnoses and better target interventions. It builds on the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, but offers a more comprehensive framework to assess the forces that can drive a society together or apart. It does this by analysing 12 societal and institutional sources of fragility. The combination of poor social cohesion and poor institutionalisation yields a vicious cycle as instability and underdevelopment feed each other. Social divisions hamper efforts to improve governance and foster economic opportunity, which in turn create discontent and a zero-sum struggle for power and resources. As such, change must target one of these two elements. Even though the framework does not directly provide solutions, it can be used to suggest policy options that are most likely to work, or at least rule out some that will surely fail.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, Fragile States, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Building up a peace infrastructure for Colombia: lessons from implementing the Victims Law

Author:
Silke Pfeiffer
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Whether a potential peace agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia will translate into the necessary transformations on the ground will depend, among other things, on the quality and legitimacy of its implementation system. Colombia will need to set up a peace infrastructure that not only facilitates formal compliance, but helps to transform the state, particularly at the local level, as well as citizens’ interactions with it. Tasked with implementing the 2011 Victims and Land Restitution Law, the National System for Comprehensive Attention to and Reparations for Victims provides important lessons for the architects of a future peace infrastructure. In order to have an impact on local dynamics, such an infrastructure will need to be developed in cooperation with regional and local actors and allow a degree of flexibility and autonomy for setting up cooperative spaces, while establishing clear standards and effective accountability systems. In the long run these spaces can only become vehicles for peace and confidence-building if power asymmetries and security risks facing community leaders are addressed. Finally, the success of a peace infrastructure will depend on the degree to which it is woven into existing institutional processes and logics, and manages to introduce good management practices instead of creating parallel, partly competing systems.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Institutionalism, Peace, and Reparations
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America