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101. Rivalries for authority in Libya

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Throughout their ten-month campaign to topple Colonel Qaddafi, Libya's opposition forces struggled to reconcile two competing streams. While fighters fired with revolutionary zeal rushed off to the front, politicians tried to establish a semblance of order in the territory that these fighters had won. Since the fall of Tripoli in August 2011 tensions have escalated into a power struggle between the thuwar, or militia forces, waving the banner of revolution, and the architects of would be reconstruction, seeking stability to give their designs foundation. As elections approach in mid- June 2012, this rivalry is coming to a head. Both sides view the ballot as the seminal event that could break the deadlock and signal the transfer of power from centrifugal revolutionary forces to a sober central authority.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Struggle, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

102. The future of Israel-Palestine: a one-state reality in the making

Author:
Khalil Shikaki
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
With no agreement on a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in sight, one-state dynamics are gaining momentum – a development that will be difficult to reverse or even contain. In the medium and long term, no one benefits from such a development. Indeed, all might lose: an ugly one-state dynamic has no happy ending, and such a solution is rejected by Palestinians and Israelis alike. Instead, the emerging one-state reality increases the potential for various kinds of conflicts and contradictory impulses. The international community too finds itself unprepared and perhaps unwilling to confront this emerging reality, but in doing so it imperils the prospects for peace in the region – the exact thing it seeks to promote.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

103. Economies of violence and peacebuilding: towards policy coherence

Author:
Mark B. Taylor
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
International responses to conflict have highlighted the role of natural resources and other forms of wealth in helping to sustain “self-financing wars”. For over a decade there have been sporadic attempts to come to grips with the international dimensions of the economies of conflict, but concrete efforts to grapple with the problem have been sporadic and incoherent. However, in 2011 developments at the UN and OECD have laid the foundations for a more coherent approach, one that seeks to control the irregular war economies in part by excluding the results of unacceptable activities from global value chains. This is a step in the right direction. However, as this policy brief argues, the effectiveness and legitimacy of this approach relies on the conscious development of a strategy that defines clear norms as the basis for exclusion, builds the capacity in the public and private sector for managing the process of exclusion, and mitigates any unintended harms resulting from exclusion to vulnerable people in conflict-affected areas.
Topic:
Development, Economics, United Nations, War, and Natural Resources

104. Palestinian youth and the Arab Spring

Author:
Jacob Høigilt, Mona Christophersen, and Åge A. Tiltnes
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This report investigates young Palestinians' views of their economic and political situation and their interest and level of engagement in politics with reference to two momentous political events in 2011: the Arab Spring and the Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly. A main question is whether the Occupied Palestinian Territories are experiencing a reinvigoration of youth activism.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Demographics, Regime Change, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and United Nations

105. From impunity to prosecution? Sexual violence in Sudan beyond Darfur

Author:
Liv Tønnessen
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Serious shortcomings in Sudanese laws and practices contribute to the lack of protection of victims of rape in Sudan. There is need for comprehensive legal reform, particularly of Sudan's Criminal Law of 1991. The categorisation of rape as a form of adultery does not result only in the virtual impossibility of convicting a rapist, but may even lead to the incrimination of the female victim of rape instead. This is particularly problematic considering the widespread use of sexual violence in the Darfur conflict. One of the encouraging consequences of the international attention on war rapes in Darfur is that women activists are increasingly positioning sexual violence against women as a concern on the national political agenda. Several legal reform initiatives are under way within the country among both state and non-state actors alike. The comprehensiveness of the reforms suggested differs in substance, but there is a consensus among both government and civil society actors that there is a need to differentiate between rape and adultery in current law. This consensus is extremely important, especially considering the sensitive and increasingly politicised and polarised debate on the topic. Although women face serious challenges in the Sudanese legal system, it is important to highlight how women activists are launching reform initiatives in order to bring justice to rape victims and to end the system of impunity for rapists. International donors can contribute a great deal in terms of supporting these reform initiatives and facilitating dialogue forums.
Topic:
Crime, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, and Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

106. Iranian nuclear weapons: a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Author:
Mariano Aguirre
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The debate about the Iranian nuclear programme has heated up over recent months, with the danger that the situation could get out of control and violence may erupt. Currently, the main threatis an escalation of violence between Iran and the U.S. Strategically, an attack will further decrease U.S. legitimacy in a region already in turmoil and will isolate Israel even further. The consequencesof these processes are both serious and unpredictable.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

107. Relations between Haiti and the Dominican Republic

Author:
Blanca Antonini
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Haiti and the Dominican Republic (DR), the two adjacent countries that comprise the island of Quisqueya, have wide asymmetries and similarities. Due to poverty, nearly a third of Haitians migrate in search of work, including to the DR, and Haiti relies on foreign assistance for food security. The DR's economy exhibits considerable dynamism, but depends on cheap labour from Haiti and remittances from its own expatriates. Both countries have a common habitat and ecosystem, and their populations have a large proportion of youth.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Humanitarian Aid, Migration, Poverty, Bilateral Relations, Labor Issues, and Food
Political Geography:
Caribbean, Haiti, Island, and Quisqueya

108. Hamas's leadership struggle and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
When the West Bank and Gaza first split between two rival Palestinian governments in 2007, Western governments promised to turn the West Bank under President Mahmoud Abbas, their Fatah protégé, into a model state and reduce Gaza under its Islamist rulers, Hamas, to a pariah. Almost five years on, the tables have turned. While the West Bank slips into economic and political crisis, Gaza is fast reviving. Abbas finds himself bereft of a political horizon for achieving a two-state settlement and the state-building experiment of his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has reached an impasse. Gaza's economy, by contrast, has grown strongly under Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, who is experiencing a wave of increasing popularity, as Hamas looks to tie the enclave ever more closely to the political economies of North Africa, where the Arab awakening is bringing affiliated Islamist movements to power. A recent agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha, between Abbas and Hamas's exiled leader, Khalid Meshal, is intended to heal the split between Palestine's two halves. Under the agreement, the separate governments governing Gaza and the West Bank would be replaced by a single technocratic government under Abbas, which is a radical about-turn on the part of the exiled Hamas leadership that Hamas politicians in Gaza find difficult to swallow. For its own reasons, Israel too rejects the agreement. With so many previous attempts at intra-Palestinian reconciliation ending in failure and so many obstacles dogging this latest round, the prospects for the Doha agreement remain bleak, but not beyond the realm of the possible.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and North Africa

109. CELAC: a voice for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Carlos Portales
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
This paper analyses the creation of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) in Caracas on 3 December 2011, locating it within the current context of cooperation and integration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This new body is based on an agreement that includes political cooperation functions and the task of seeking inter-governmental coordination of public policies.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Latin America and Caribbean

110. President Martelly – call on Haiti's youth!

Author:
Henriette Lunde
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Half a year has passed since Michel Martelly was inaugurated as the new president of Haiti, and so far the earthquake-devastated country has seen little progress from his presidency. The reconstruction process is slow, and frustration and disgruntlement are growing among the population. Important time was wasted during the five months it took to appoint a new prime minister and put a new government in place. Martelly's mandate was largely given to him by the country's youth, who have high expectations of him. Integrating youth into the reconstruction process is important for reasons of political stability, but young people also represent the country's most important resource per se by constituting a large and – relative to their parents – better-educated part of the workforce. To battle the image of Haiti as a weak state in a land of strong NGOs, the Haitian state needs to assert itself and take on the responsibility of providing services to its citizens. Recruiting young people on a large scale for public sector employment in basic service provision and establishing a national youth civic service corps would strengthen the position of the state and let youth participate in the reconstruction process in a meaningful way. However, a civic service corps would demand high levels of co-ordination and transparency to avoid becoming an empty institution reinforcing patrimonial structures. The youth who brought Martelly to power represent a great potential asset for the country and need to be given the place in the reconstruction process that they have been promised.
Topic:
Democratization, Natural Disasters, Fragile/Failed State, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti