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51. Defying Gravity: Working Toward a Regional Strategy for a Stable Middle East

Author:
Ross Harrison
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
In this MEI Policy Paper, Ross Harrison asserts that a new regional order is emerging out of the conflicts of the Middle East. The relationships among the pillars of this order--Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran--are crucial, as they will largely determine "whether the future of the Middle East will be a continuation of the current chaos and destruction or a more positive transition toward stability and prosperity." Harrison argues that global powers must concentrate on creating conditions conducive to cooperation among the pillars.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

52. Arab Armed Forces: State Makers or State Breakers?

Author:
Robert Springborg
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Proliferation and intensification of coercive force in the Arab world since 2011, combined with apparent decay of Arab states, seems at first glance to run counter to the implicit predictions of two relevant bodies of literature. The modernization school, which emerged as Arab states were becoming independent in the 1950s, held that Arab militaries were state builders—mobilizing, integrating, and organizing their societies to face development challenges, including that of inter-state war. More or less simultaneously, European-focused historical sociology, led by Charles Tilly, made the case that war making, requiring as it does increased domestic extraction coupled with subordination to central authority of internal rivals, was the engine of state making. And indeed, the historical trajectory of the Arab world for some half a century up until 2011 seemed to substantiate both views, as militaries and states grew in tandem under the ever present threat of war.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Democracy, State, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

53. Recalibration and Surprises: A Primer on the Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Election

Author:
Allen Keiswetter
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This is a capstone paper for a series of MEI scholar articles titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections." Will the 2016 vote for president be a foreign policy election? How will the Middle East figure in the campaign as it gains momentum? The accepted wisdom is that domestic issues, especially economic matters, will be decisive in voters’ minds. A year away from the election, it is unclear whether foreign policy issues will figure in a major way but the portent is there. The turbulent Middle East could easily burst into election politics as it has several times in the past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

54. Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:
Charles Schmitz
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Facing popular protests, a secessionist movement in the south, a spiraling security crisis, and a deep fracturing of political factions, Yemen’s political elite acceded to the Gulf initiative in 2011, which established a caretaker transitional government. The agreement signed in Riyadh stipulated a two-year transitional period and created a National Dialogue Conference (NDC) as a forum to solve the country’s political problems. The results of the National Dialogue will form the basis for a new constitution, and Yemenis will then elect a new government to conclude the transitional period. The National Dialogue has concluded, but it is not clear whether it can really solve Yemen’s political problems. The two-year transitional period ended without a new constitution or elections—these will be held at some undetermined later date—and facts on the ground may be outpacing the deliberations of the political elite and their international backers. The government cannot prevent attacks on its oil pipelines or electrical grid; al-Qa`ida operates with almost impunity in the capital city Sana; the Houthi movement is expanding its area of control, recently taking the symbolically important towns of Huth in Amran and Dammaj in Sa`ada; and the south remains unsettled and far from accepting of any solutions proposed by the Sana elite. In February 2014 the committee created to “resolve” the issue of southern rebellion decided on a federal system of government composed of six regions. Yet most Yemenis do not know what federalism is, and what’s more, they don’t care. Deteriorating security and the rise of poverty have overwhelmed any interest most citizens might have in the details of the elite’s visions for the future of the country. Both Saudi Arabia and the United States, the most important foreign actors in Yemen and backers of the Gulf initiative, are focused on their own regional interests, sometimes to the detriment of Yemeni interests. The Saudis want to maintain their influence on the Yemeni government, fight Iranian influence, and control threats from Yemeni soil spilling over into Saudi Arabia. However, the Saudis recently expelled from the Kingdom hundreds of thousands of Yemeni workers, exacerbating Yemen’s desperate economic situation. The United States is focused on al-Qa`ida and Iran. The American drone campaign continues to wreak havoc, recently killing members of a wedding party in spite of President Obama’s new procedures to bring the targeted assassinations under the color of law, and the United States seems unable to relinquish its misperception that the Houthis in Sa`ada constitute a new Hezbollah. With such deep divisions in Yemen’s political body and in the competing regional agendas of Yemen’s foreign backers, Yemen’s prospects for a peaceful political settlement that will allow the country to stabilize and grow seem dim.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

55. Kuwait: At the Crossroads of Change or Political Stagnation

Author:
Shafeeq Ghabra
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Though Kuwaitis have been striving for change, particularly since 2011, their country’s political structures remain more or less unaltered. Yet change is inevitable, writes Shafeeq Ghabra in this MEI Policy Paper. At issue is a semi-democratic system that has proven ineffective at dealing with problems such as government mismanagement, corruption, a lack of economic transparency, and inequality toward tribes and undocumented immigrants. Ghabra argues that if change is not initiated by the state, peaceful demonstrations will continue to push the government toward rationalizing the political process, allowing more freedoms, and developing Kuwait's democracy by amending its 52-year-old constitution.
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Social Movement, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Gulf Nations