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91. External imbalances and the G20

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

92. Unconventional partners: Australia-India cooperation in reducing nuclear dangers

Author:
Rory Medcalf and Amandeep Gill
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
To reduce the grave dangers posed by the continued existence and spread of nuclear weapons, and the risk that they will one day again be used, unconventional diplomacy is needed. Part of the problem is the way in which global agreements or pragmatic interim solutions are often obstructed by longstanding divisions among nations: nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states; Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) members and nonmembers; Western states and the non-aligned. New partnerships and platforms for dialogue could cut across these stale categories, at least on some issues, and expand the space for agreement and new thinking. Australia and India could take the lead in crafting one such new partnership.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Australia/Pacific

93. Rebuilding Zimbabwe: Australia's role in supporting the transition

Author:
Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Zimbabwe's long night is by no means over. Nearly a year after the violent and disputed March 2008 elections, and months after the September signing of a 'Global Political Agreement' with the ruling ZANU-PF party, the main faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) agreed in February to take part in a coalition government in which its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, became Prime Minister. The state apparatus in Zimbabwe is currently shared uneasily by reformers and reactionaries with each of the MDC and ZANU-PF having half of the cabinet seats. Hardline ZANU-PF elements remain in government and control the security services, and a quiet but intense power struggle continues.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Development, Foreign Aid, and Food
Political Geography:
Africa, Australia, and Zimbabwe

94. The global financial crisis: causes and consequences

Author:
Warwick J. McKibbin and Andrew B. Stoeckel
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in an intertemporal (or DSGE) global model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, and Markets

95. Obama's surge: The United States, Australia and the Second War for Afghanistan

Author:
Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
President Obama's announcement of a troop surge and the planned withdrawal of the Netherlands as lead nation in Oruzgan province in mid-2010, where the bulk of Australia's military contribution operates, raise a number of issues for Australia's role in Afghanistan. In particular: the potential and perhaps unintended impact of any new lead nation on the relative improvements in security that have been achieved in Oruzgan province a possible demand for more Australian troops and greater flexibility in the way they are used in Afghanistan as the result of changes in US strategy; and the effectiveness of Australia's small but growing number of civilian and police personnel in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Australia

96. Problems to partnership: a plan for Australia-India strategic ties

Author:
Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Strategic ties between Australia and India keep falling short of expectations, despite strong growth in trade. Controversy over the welfare of Indian students has added to differences over uranium exports to cloud what should be promising links between two countries with many common concerns. The relationship will weather recent turbulence. But without major diplomatic initiatives soon, the prospects for a truly strategic partnership between these Indian Ocean democracies will be set back for years.
Topic:
Education, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
India, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

97. Caught in the crossfire: the Pashtun tribes of Southeast Afghanistan

Author:
Tom Gregg
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
There is increased recognition of the importance of engaging tribes in Afghanistan, but the government of Afghanistan and the international community are yet to come up with a coherent and coordinated approach. While more effective tribal engagement won't work everywhere, there is an opportunity to engage more fully with Pashtun tribes in Afghanistan's southeast. A meaningful and well resourced tribal policy would help improve stability in this strategically important region and also help avoid any mismanagement that could make things worse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

98. A G-20 caucus for East Asia

Author:
Stephen Grenville and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In September 2009 the Pittsburgh Summit designated the G-20 as the world's premier forum for international cooperation. The G-20's arrival at the apex of the international economic architecture gives East Asia a much greater presence at the top table of the world economy: six regional economies, including Australia, are members of the G-20, in contrast to the G7, which only had room for Japan. This increase in representation creates important new opportunities for the region. But making use of these opportunities requires significant increases in policy-making resources. Unfortunately, in many Asian economies, such resources are in short supply relative to the wide variety of pressing problems the region currently faces.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific

99. Rebuilding Zimbabwe: Australia's role in supporting the transition

Author:
Joel Negin and Jolyon Ford
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What should Australia do to assist Zimbabwe's re-emergence? In March 2009, Australia became the first major donor country to provide assistance to the new power-sharing government in Zimbabwe. Given the pervading influence of hardline elements, many doubt the merits and viability of the 'inclusive government'. Ought Australia continue its support, accepting the risk of buttressing Mugabe and his regime? Or should Australia stand back and maintain pressure for a more acceptable government – at the risk of contributing to theinclusive government's failure?
Topic:
Bilateral Relations and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Africa, Australia/Pacific, and Zimbabwe

100. China and the Global Environment: Learning from the Past, Anticipating the Future

Author:
Katherine Morton
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
One of the greatest dilemmas of the early 21st century is how to satisfy the demands of densely populated states in the context of a global environmental crisis. As the world's biggest polluter and prominent emerging world power, China is at the centre of the global debate. Worsening pollution trends, increasing resource scarcity, and widespread ecological degradation have serious implications for China's ongoing modernisation drive. The spillover effects across borders also pose a challenge to its relations with the outside world. Although China's per capita CO2 emissions are low relative to the United States and Australia, they already exceed the world average. In 2007, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest aggregate emitter.
Topic:
Environment, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Reform
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia