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Begin New Search Publishing Institution Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)

21. Sources of Comparative Advantage in Services: Institution vs. Social Capital

Author:
Nakgyoon Choi and Soonchan Park
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Previous studies that have identified the impacts of institutions or cultural traits on comparative advantage focused on goods trade, but not services trade. In contrast to the rapid increase in trade in services, empirical examina-tion on sources of comparative advantage in services trade remains limited. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating empirically the impacts of institution as well as social capital on comparative advantage in services trade. Services are exposed to relatively more pre-choice risks than goods, because it is difficult to obtain information on the quality of services before the con-sumer decides to purchase. In addition, trade in services involved in global value chains possibly takes on the risks of contract breach by other firms along the same value chains. As a result, the transaction risks for trade in ser-vices are higher than for trade in goods. Using the World Input Output Da-tabase, we estimate the importance of social capital for comparative ad-vantage in services. We find that countries with more social capital tend to specialize in the production of contract-intensive services. We also find that social capital rather than institution matters for comparative advantage in ser-vices.
Topic:
Economic Policy, Institutions, Services, Trade, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. A Study on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade and the Issues of Regional Economic Integration in Central Asia

Author:
Kodirjon Maxamadaminovich Umarkulov
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
At the current stage of globalization, Central Asia (CA) is becoming a focal point for the political and economic interests of global forces because of its rich natural resources and critical strategic position. From this point of view, the CA countries need to form a joint development strategy for solving regional problems and a strong mechanism for countering the main political and economic conflicts in the region. At the same time, the countries of the region need to choose the path of joint development in order to increase the efficiency of their internal capacities and resources, adapt the domestic social and economic infrastructure to modern requirements and improve the living standards of the population. This is directly related to the progress of regional economic integration in CA. Through this integration, the economies of the countries in the region could complement each other and ensure a high level of development in mutual trade and industrial development. However, there are some obstacles and problems hindering the development of economic integration in the region. Most particularly, the weak infrastructure in the region, its economic-geographical isolation from world markets, administrative barriers and political instability hinder trade between the countries of CA. From this point of view, this study focuses on the problems of general and cross-border trade in CA countries, and the opportunities for economic integration in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

23. A Quantitative Trade Model with Unemployment

Author:
Kyu Yub Lee
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, quantifying the welfare effects from tariff changes has become one of the main challenges among international trade economists. There are a number of quantitative trade models with micro-foundations which emphasize demand-side (Anderson and Van Wincoop 2003), supply-side (Eaton and Kortum 2002), Bertrand competition (Bernard et al. 2003), extensive and intensive margin (Chaney 2008), etc, and conclude that trade liberalization with tariff reductions leads an economy to reach a higher level of welfare compared to pre-liberalization (Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare 2014). While elegant, these models inducing gravity equations share the common assumption, a perfect labor market. Quantitative trade models with full-employment developed so far have not taken account of labor market frictions when evaluating the welfare effects from tariff changes. This paper aims to fill the gap in the trade literature by explicitly considering labor market frictions. I employ search-and-matching to a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian model with input-output linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity, in order to quantify the welfare effects from tariff changes. The paper shows that labor market frictions can be a source of comparative advantage in the sense that better labor market conditions contribute to lower cost in production. Labor market frictions play a critical role in determining the probability of exporting goods to trading partners, and interact with bilateral trade share, price, expenditures, etc. Unemployment and changes in unemployment rates due to tariff reductions contribute welfare changes across countries, implying that welfare effects based on quantitative trade models with full-employment are likely to be biased. I confirm the biased welfare effects by revisiting Caliendo and Parro (2015), who conduct an analysis of the welfare effects from the NAFTA from 1993 to 2005. I show that the welfare gap between theirs and mine has a positive correlation with changes in observed unemployment rates across countries. With the constructed model, I further conduct counterfactual exercises by asking what would happen if China’s tariffs remain unchanged from 2006 to 2015. It turns out that there are mild welfare effects to trading partners in the world trading system.
Topic:
Tariffs, Economic Policy, Trade, Unemployment, and Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

24. Exchange Rates and Firm Exports: The Role of Foreign Ownership and Subsidiaries

Author:
Hyelin Choi and Hyo Sang Kim
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Exchange rates have been changed unusually large these days. From 2011 to 2016, the Euro and the Japanese Yen have depreciated against the US Dollar by more than 25 percent. According to a theory, since competitively valued exchange rate helps to boost export growth, we should have observed a sub-stantial increase in export in the EU and Japan. However, the effectiveness of the exchange rates on exports appears to be weak across countries. This anomaly is one of the central puzzles in international macroeconomics: why large movements in the exchange rate have modest effects on the aggregate variables such as import prices, consumer prices, and quantity of exports. In this paper, we examines the role of global production linkages on ex-change rate elasticities by using Korean firm-level data. At firm-level, foreign-owned firms or firms with foreign subsidiaries participated in the Global Value Chains (GVC) play an important role in weakening the effect of ex-change rate movements on firm exports. The empirical results show that the exchange rate elasticity of total export is about -0.64, which implies that 10% appreciation of Korean Won would make a drop in total export by 6.4%. However, the exchange rate elasticities of firms are not the homogeneous across firms. We find that the exchange rate elasticities of firm exports are significant and negative for domestic-owned firms and firms without foreign subsidiary whereas those are insignificant for foreign-owned firms and firms with foreign subsidiaries. After controlling exports to foreign affiliates, we still find that the estimated exchange rate elasticities of exports are statistically insignificant, but become negative and relatively larger for firms with global production linkages. More-over, firms with higher GVC integration measure or more imported inter-mediate inputs have the significantly lower exchange rate elasticities of firm exports. It suggests that developments of global production linkages via firm ownership, within-industry or within-firm in the last decade play an essential role in alleviating the effect of exchange rate movements on the firm exports.
Topic:
Exchange Rate Policy, Economic Policy, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Financial Market Integration and Income Inequality

Author:
Jae Wook Jung and Kyunghun Kim
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Benefits of financial market integration include cheaper and alternative op-tions of saving and borrowing for households and entrepreneurs. In the global financial market, asset choices for households widen so that individu-als can manage their idiosyncratic income risk more effectively. On the other hand, financial market integration makes investors who hold foreign assets more vulnerable to global financial shocks. In the recent financial crisis, finan-cial market distress which initially arose in the U.S. had an enormous impact on the peripheral countries. This example shows that the strong shock prop-agation occurs via integrated financial markets. The existing literature shows that financial market integration has a sizable impact not only on business cycles in the short run, but also on economic growth in the long run. However, there has been little attention to income distribution, specifically in related to the financial market integration. In this paper, we fill the void in the literature by focusing on the following two styl-ized facts: income inequality has been exacerbated in most countries over the past two decades, and the financial market has been integrated across coun-tries during the same period. In particular, we answer three research questions to investigate the relationship between the two facts. First, how does financial market integration affect income inequality? Second, how do financial market integration and financial market development interact to change income ine-quality? Third, what components do theoretical model need to explain the interaction effect of financial market development and integration on income inequality? We test hypotheses that the effect of financial market openness on inequality is conditional on the level of domestic financial market development when the financial market opens. An empirical study with panel data comprised of 174 countries for the period 1995-2017 finds that the overall effect of finan-cial integration on income inequality is nonlinear. Financial market integration creates the intensive and extensive margins of credit supply which may de-pend on the development level of financial market disproportionally. This paper uncovers a novel empirical evidence that financial market integration and financial market development interact to change income inequality. When other things are controlled, the effect of financial market integration on in-come inequality depends on financial market development. In a country with underdeveloped financial market, income inequality gets worse as financial market opens. On the other hand, when financial market is highly developed, the effect of financial market openness on income inequality is mostly insig-nificant in a statistical sense. The results are still valid with different measures of financial market development, integration, and income inequality. We check that the results are robust as an endogeneity issue among financial market development and integration is controlled. We also suggest some important structures for the conventional economic model to account for our empirical finding as theoretical implications. Based on these implications, extensions of the conventional small open economy model with financial constraints having suggested components such as het-erogeneous holdings of foreign assets across income and asset levels and entrepreneurial shocks will be necessary to understand an interaction of fi-nancial market openness and domestic market development on the distribu-tion of income in a country. Our finding also echoes that studying an eco-nomic mechanism in which economic growth, financial market outcomes, and inequality are endogenously determined.
Topic:
Development, Income Inequality, Financial Markets, Economic growth, and Integration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Vietnam’s Low National Competitiveness: Causes, Implications and Suggestions for Improvement

Author:
LE Quoc Phuong
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The WEF’s annual assessment using the GCI index in 2006-2017 shows that Vietnam’s national competitiveness has been low. Globally, Vietnam has ranked in the middle of economies surveyed. Regionally, Vietnam has been in the middle of ASEAN countries. With regard to the level of development, before 2015 Vietnam was in stage 1 (factor-driven), together with Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. Since 2015 Vietnam has shifted toward a transition to stage 2 (efficiency-driven), which also includes Brunei and the Philippines. The country, however, has lagged behind Indonesia and Thailand (in stage 2), Malaysia (in transition to stage 3) and Singapore (in stage 3, innovation-driven). To complement the WEF’s assessment, this study provides an in-depth anal-ysis of main causes of Vietnam’s low competitiveness from the country’s perspective. These are structural problems due to its factor-based growth model, expansionary policies to aid growth, slowly improved business envi-ronment, low R&D expenditure, poorly performing higher education and under-developed infrastructure. Further, the research examines implications of these shortcomings for Vi-etnam. These are low productivity, diminishing GDP growth, middle income trap, macroeconomic instability, low business competitiveness, low technolo-gy level, low human capital quality and environmental degradation. Based on the analysis of the shortcomings and their consequences, policy measures are proposed to improve Vietnam’s competitiveness. Major sugges-tions include structural reforms to change the growth model from factor-based to productivity-based, raising technology level and enhancing human capital quality, improving the business environment, ensuring macroeconomic stability, upgrading infrastructure and learning from advanced economies.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economic growth, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Vietnam and Southeast Asia

27. What Determined 2015 TPA Voting Pattern?: The Role of Trade Negotiating Objectives

Author:
Yeo Joon Yoon and Woong Lee
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes 2015-TPA voting patterns in the Congress in the context of the trade negotiating objectives. By setting the trade negotiating objectives, the Congress lays out important trade agenda that the Administration is ex-pected to address when it is negotiating trade deals with foreign countries. Therefore setting the objectives is subject of heated debates in the Congress and an important part of TPA. LPM and probit models are used to evaluate the importance of each trade negotiating objectives in 2015-TPA voting deci-sions. It turns out that the objective on promoting U.S. agricultural exports by reducing unfair trade barriers positively affected the voting decision in favor of the TPA. The objective on enforcing strong labor standards on trade partners also had significant impacts. One other notable result is that how much each congressional region export to China was also an important de-terminant. This variable is meant to capture several negotiating objectives as well as growing worries of large trade deficits with China. This study docu-ments important issues that U.S. Congress is concerned about in making conducting and implementing trade policies. It may provide insights into the future course of U.S. trade policy and trade deals such as renegotiation of NAFTA and Korea-US FTA.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, NAFTA, Voting, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

28. Empirical Assessment of Trade Engagements: Africa, China and the Maritime Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Igbinoba Emmanuel
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Recent development economic literatures theorize that South-South trade and foreign investment may have a larger impact on economic growth in devel-oping economies than North-South trade and investment, since investors from the South are more familiar with local developing markets and business practices, which increases their productivity spillovers (Aykut and Goldstein 2007). Amighini and Sanfilippo (2014) provided evidence that South-South trade and investments stimulate product diversification in light manufacturing industries such as agro-processing, plastic, textile and leather production. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013, aims to create economic opportunities as well as improve and establish new trading routes between China and connected regions. This paper attempts to evaluate the degree of trade relations between China and selected African countries along the Mari-time Silk Route (MSR) and further appraise the trade potentials and gains in-herent for African economies through the initiative. To achieve our objective, we apply quantitative techniques in trade evaluation to enable us explore and estimate the degree and intensity of trade engagements amongst selected Si-no-African silk route countries, identify the trade opportunities and potentials, which are critical for increased trade engagements between both parties along the route and to explore some of the channels through which the maritime route can impact on investment, trade and economic growth in Africa. Findings from the analysis indicate that while the degree of trade integration is unbalanced and favourable to China relative to Africa, the trade pattern and structure are observed to be more complementary than competitive, and this provides Africa with ample opportunity to engage in product upgrading and diversification, critical for structural transformation.
Topic:
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa and China

29. Ecommerce and Firm Performance: Evidence from Korea

Author:
Kyu Yub Lee
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Official estimates peg global business-to-business ecommerce at 15 trillion dollars and global business-to-consumer ecommerce at 1.2 trillion dollars in 2013 (UNCTAD 2015). When we turn to official estimates for Korea, it is easy to find that Korea’s business-to-consumer ecommerce market is grow-ing at more than twenty percent per year and has emerged as the third larg-est global ecommerce market in Asia. It is not very much surprising to know the numbers for Korea since Korea is one of the world’s most ad-vanced countries in terms of information and communication technology. However, it is somewhat surprising that we know little about how ecom-merce firms or establishments are distributed in the economy of Korea. In addition, we know little about how ecommerce establishments perform relative to their counterparts of a similar age and size in the same industry. The paper aims to characterize and test performance differences between ecommerce and non-ecommerce firms or establishments. Although the number of ecommerce establishments makes up a small fraction of the economy, ecommerce establishments have a heavier weight in sales, em-ployment, and wage. Due to endogeneity of ecommerce variable, the paper reconstructs the 2010 Korea Census dataset by using Propensity Matching Score and shows that in manufacture ecommerce establishments have, on average, larger sales-per-worker and pay higher wage whereas in services ecommerce ones have higher sales-per-worker but pay no larger wage than their counterparts of a similar age and size in the same industry. It also adds quantile estimates showing that sales-per-worker differences between ecommerce and non-ecommerce establishments in manufacture are positive and statistically significant only at lower quantiles of the distribution. In ser-vices, sales-per-worker differences between them are positive and signifi-cant at most of distribution but turns to be negative, though not significant, at above upper quantile of the distribution.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

30. The Impact of Trade Liberalization in Africa

Author:
Jae Wook Jung
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Africa is one of the most economic-integrated continents by a number of regional trade agreements in the continent. There are about 30 bilateral and multilateral trade agreements within the continents so that each African coun-try is a member of at least one regional trade agreement. Trade between Afri-can countries, however, barely exceeds 10% of the total trade of Africa, which is much lower than other continents’ intra-regional trade share. This discrepancy between many regional trade agreements and small intra-continent trade share tells that regional economic integrations in Africa are very unsuccessful trade liberalization policies to promote trade. This paper examines a reason why trade liberalization policies in Africa fail. In particular, we investigate the impact of trade agreements in Africa on trade conditional on financial market development and political instability. An empirical study finds that Africa countries’ poor financial market accessibility and political instability are key barriers to trade integration in the region. These two factors can explain most disadvantage of African countries in their intra-regional trade. In a dynamic regression, the two factors depress the long-run growth of trade due to trade liberalization in the region significantly, while African continent dummy variable that captures other unobserved trade obstacles in the region has much less effect on trade compared to the literature on African regional economic integration.
Topic:
Markets, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Policy, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Korea