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71. Russia's Pivot to Asia: Myths and Realities

Author:
Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s “pivot to Asia” has come to the fore in the wake of the crisis over Ukraine. Growing tensions with the West over the common neighbourhood, coupled with economic sanctions, have accelerated this trend, with China gaining in strength as both an economic and military partner to Moscow. The Kremlin’s propaganda has sought to convince the broader public that Russia’s strategies in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Arctic region are a complement to China’s new Silk Road Economic Belt. Nonetheless, behind the headlines huge potential problems jeopardise the emergence of a durable Sino-Russian consensus in Eurasia. Against this backdrop, the EU should opt for “strategic patience.” This would be a far more effective policy choice than finger pointing, which only deepens the mutual ideological clash between the EU and Russia.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-69-9
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

72. Authoritarian Stability through Perpetual Democratisation

Author:
Francesco Cavatorta
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The survival of the Moroccan monarchy during the Arab revolts did not come as a surprise. Once the King reclaimed political leadership through the launch of a constitutional reform, the protest movement faded and whatever challenge to the pre-eminence of the monarchy in the political system might have existed ended quickly. A number of different and interlinked explanations have been advanced for the survival of authoritarianism in Morocco, but they generally rehash conventional wisdoms about Moroccan politics that may not be as valid as they were in the past. This paper looks beyond such traditional explanations, focusing on less obvious factors that contributed to the survival of the monarchy. A more sophisticated explanation for the survival of the regime can serve as a more insightful guide to what Morocco might look like in the future and what are the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Topic:
Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-67-5
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

73. Migration and Refugee Governance in the Mediterranean: Europe and International Organisations at a Crossroads

Author:
Sarah Wolff
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The death of Aylan, a 3-year-old boy on a Turkish beach, prompted European leaders and public opinions to acknowledge that Europe is the deadliest migration destination in the world. In spite of this disturbing truth, there is little agreement on an EU solution to the Syrian refugee crisis. In September 2015, the EU Interior Ministers struggled to agree over the relocation of 120,000 refugees through a common compulsory mechanism, as Eastern European countries oppose the idea of “sharing the burden.” Progress regarding other solutions such as a European rescue at-sea-mission, the delivery of humanitarian visas or the opening of legal means of migration have also met strong member state resistance. If Europe is not up to the task, can international organisations (IOs), often critical of European states for their inaction, impulse change? What influence do IOs have on EU and Mediterranean migration and refugee policies? This paper investigates how IOs have been trying to frame an alternative debate and the challenges they meet in promoting transregional governance.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Migration, War, Immigration, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-66-8
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

74. Social, Economic and Political Dynamics in Tunisia and the Related Short- to Medium-Term Scenarios

Author:
Maryam Ben Salem
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country which has succeeded so far in its democratic transition. Now that all the democratic institutions have been put in place, and after the legislative and presidential elections of 2014, the chances of democratic consolidation remain to be seen. Yet the regime faces serious challenges that cast doubt on its survival capacity. The political dynamics at play after the 2014 elections, which allowed Nidaa Tounes to come to power, cannot be understood without taking into account the conditions surrounding the political transition itself. The National Dialogue, hosted by the Quartet who were recently awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, is key to understanding the ongoing process of democracy consolidation. Taking into account both contingent and structural factors, this paper analyses how the current context is likely to shape the choices of the presidency of the Republic and of the Essid government, as well as the implications in terms of their legitimacy.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-65-1
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

75. Is Europe to Benefit from China's Belt and Road Initiative?

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
With the One Belt One Road (OBOR), arguably Beijing’s major diplomatic outreach in decades, a process towards greater Sino-European connectivity has been put in place. The implementation of the OBOR in Europe has focused so far on financing infrastructure projects, in particular railways in Southeast Europe and ports in the Mediterranean Sea. This has been complemented by growing monetary linkages between the People’s Bank of China and European central banks through the establishment of currency swap agreements and yuan bank clearing – so-called “offshore renminbi hubs” – with the aim of lowering transaction costs of Chinese investment and bolstering the use of the Chinese currency. While there are undoubtedly great economic opportunities, China’s OBOR initiative also presents the EU with a major political challenge. There is the risk, in fact, that a scramble for Chinese money could further divide EU member states and make it difficult for Brussels to fashion a common position vis-à-vis Beijing. Furthermore, China’s economic penetration into Europe may lead – if not properly managed – to a populist backlash as well as a strain in relations with Washington. All these elements should be taken into consideration by EU policymakers, as China’s OBOR makes inroads into the Old Continent.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
China and Europe
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-64-4
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

76. Burma Before the Elections

Author:
Zoltan Barany
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Burma’s upcoming elections will be a test of how much the country’s political scene has changed since the generals’ tentative liberalisation programme began five years ago. The National League for Democracy, led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, is likely to win big. Still, it may not get the two-thirds of the parliamentary seats open for competition that it needs to form a government. If it does not, it ought to blame itself, for the NLD has been unwilling to enter into coalitions either with much-respected civic organisations or with the increasingly vocal and well-organised ethnic parties. At the same time, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has led a smart campaign just short of breaking the electoral laws. Both the USDP and ethnic parties might do better than expected and cost the NLD – dominated and controlled by Suu Kyi – a crucial opportunity to advance democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Authoritarianism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-63-7
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

77. The Outlook for Algeria

Author:
Joffé George
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Algeria today faces a triple crisis. The collapse in global oil prices during 2014 and 2015 has meant that its economic future is potentially extremely sombre. In political terms, the regime faces a complex and uncertain transition as the Bouteflika era comes to an end. Moreover, Algeria’s security environment is threatening, given the chaos in Libya, the emergence of extremism in Tunisia and the ongoing violence in northern Mali because of the extremist groups located there. This situation is further complicated by the persistence of “residual terrorism,” as the government terms it, inside Algeria itself and the chronic crisis with Morocco over the latter’s annexation of the Western Sahara in 1975. This paper analyses each of these factors in turn before seeking to outline short- to medium-term scenarios for the future.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Islam, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-62-0
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

78. China's New Silk Road Initiative

Author:
Zhao Minghao
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Council has mandated the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, to draft a Global Strategy by June 2016. Given Europe’s status as a global power, such a strategy must respond to Europe’s own challenges as well as to the new grand strategies of other major players in world politics, like China. To better understand the central tenets of the Chinese leadership’s strategic thinking, two keywords are most important – the “Four Comprehensives” and the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR). As an initiative mainly focusing on promoting Eurasian integration and reshaping Chinese geo-economic advantages, the OBOR is highly consequential to China’s interactions with Europe and the rest of the world at large in the decades to come. How to take advantage of the OBOR, create new EU-China synergies, and tackle relevant challenges are questions the EU leaders should be attentive to.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-61-3
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

79. The Metamorphosis of Religion: North Africa in the Modern Era

Author:
Mohammad Haddad
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the nineteenth century, North Africa’s religious life has witnessed a slow and uncertain metamorphosis. It is still unable to settle into a constant and sustainable model. The traditional order could not resist the emergence of the nation-state, modern education and new forms of social organisation. However, religion has remained on the margins of these developments. Although used in the anticolonial struggle, religion was then abandoned during the formation of the postcolonial state. Yet the difficulties faced by governments since the 1970s have entrusted religion with a predominantly opposition function, which is negative and sometimes violent. This paper argues that only neo-reformism can give a positive spin to religion’s role in politics and can serve as the basis for a new religious order.
Topic:
Islam, Post Colonialism, Non State Actors, and Reform
Political Geography:
North Africa
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-60-6
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI

80. Overhauling EU Policy in the Mediterranean. Towards More Inclusive, Responsive and Flexible Policies

Author:
Daniela Huber and Maria Cristina Paciello
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As the EU is reviewing its European Neighbourhood Policy, this paper calls for an entirely new approach that would give the EU a stake in the region by responding more effectively to key needs on both sides of the Mediterranean. It first outlines three strategic policy options for the EU – defensive, power-projecting and reflexive approaches – and analyses EU policies accordingly. After observing that EU policies in the Mediterranean since the Arab uprisings have oscillated between a defensive and a power-projecting approach, this paper discusses how EU policies could become more inclusive of key actors, more responsive to key challenges and more flexible on both the multilateral and the bilateral level.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Power Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-59-0
Publication Identifier Type:
DOI